NZSX50 - Good News!

[blackcap]

Must be a rain storm in tea cup, another record high for the NZ50 !

Perhaps NZ with it's rock star economy is starting to look for some like a bit of safe haven.

Coupled with our strong dollar etc etc. And our earnings were overall pretty positive so that does bode well...

[Bjauck]

Knowing nothing about this at all, but, what are the predictors that we've uncoupled from global markets?

If so, what are the chances we could either fall (collapse) without them (earlier than them), or rise longer than them (unlikely I know)??

I should have known better...I too had noticed in the past that NZ markets can often move in their own particular way. Perhaps our small size means that a small (on the international scale) market player or sub-story can have a big effect in NZ. In the Crimean context maybe NZ and Oz are safe havens.

Disc: I am an ingénu when it comes to intenational markets dynamics

[blackcap]

I should have known better...I too had noticed in the past that NZ markets can often move in their own particular way. Perhaps our small size means that a small (on the international scale) market player or sub-story can have a big effect in NZ. In the Crimean context maybe NZ and Oz are safe havens.

Disc: I am an ingénu when it comes to intenational markets dynamics

Also just on CNBC that Ukraine is only 1/4 of 1 % of world GDP and Crimea even less. So in the bigger picture it really is meaningless.... Or so the analyst was telling us.

[Bjauck]

Also just on CNBC that Ukraine is only 1/4 of 1 % of world GDP and Crimea even less. So in the bigger picture it really is meaningless.... Or so the analyst was telling us.

Serbia was not an international power in 1914 when the archduke was topped.....not that I am saying that Crimea will inevitably lead to a world war. It is however in one of those strategic hotspots - drawing in Russia, USA and Britain (as guarantors of Ukrainian socereignty). Sounds similar to the various assistance treaties back in 1914. Since NZ is no longer a dependent child of mother Britain, we are somewhat more removed from European crises than we were in 1914 (or 1939).

[Hoop]

Hi Guys.
John Mauldin is one writer I take notice of...he socialises with the movers and shakers of this world and he shares their views with us mere mortals...he offers free subscription and his Ukraine article popped up in my email box this morning...
This is his website http://www.mauldineconomics.com/

[Bjauck]

BJ, the current crisis is hardly a parallel to the crises that lead into WWI. NATO will not attack Russia over an invasion of the Ukraine as they are not a bloc member (they do have guarantees though). Putin knows to do so is economic suicide anyways.

Best case scenario: Putin backs down soon and all retyrns to normal.

Worst case scenario: Russian invasion followed by civil war in Ukraine and overthrow of Russian government.

That's not all. If Putin gets overthrown, or worse, we see a repeat of 1917, the country has the worlds largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.

If you really feel like scaring yourself tonight, watch The Sum of All Fears. (and no, Ben Affleck's acting is not the scariest part of the movie...)

I don't think anyone wants another world war that's for sure. But no-one wanted another war in 1939. Poland was guaranteed by Britain and France in 1939. The Ukraine's sovereignty is guaranteed by UK, USA and Russia. If UK and USA are not true to their word, they will appease Russia and let Crimea (and Eastern Ukraine) slip under Russian hegemony. Russia has already increased its influence elsewhere over the years. Are we seeing a sort of parallel between Germany in 30's and Russia today? Will the EU UK and USA go down the appeasement route? Just throwing it out there! Perhaps we are seeing a return to the cold war...rather than hot war itself?

[Bjauck]

True...we are not in the 1930's. Putin is not an unabashed dictator and is more subject to popular forces than the dictators in the 1930's (although that is debatable). At least he got Duma backing. (As an aside would the NZ and Australian people have voted for a war in Vietnam that their government sent troops into?).

A difference from the 1930's is the nuclear aspect - the treatment of an empire-building nation with run-down conventional force but a nuclear arsenal. Also in similar vein, if the Ukraine had not dismantled its share of the USSR nuclear armaments, would Russia have intervened in the Crimea as it did? Perhaps the Scottish Nationalists are taking note so, if they succeed in their referendum campaign for an independent Scotland, they may decide that keeping nuclear subs in the Scottish bases may be worth the expense.

Looks like Putin has backed down for time being. In its contrarian form, will the NZSX drop?

[Bobcat.]

Hi Guys.
John Mauldin is one writer I take notice of...he socialises with the movers and shakers of this world and he shares their views with us mere mortals...he offers free subscription and his Ukraine article popped up in my email box this morning...
This is his website http://www.mauldineconomics.com/

Thanks Hoop - at first glance this looks good. I've subscribed to Mauldin's article emails.

[Hoop]

[winner69]

This Mr Lister (although he doesn't look old enough to be a real Mr) just doesn't get it and is just a big spoil cat.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11214446

Why show everybody how smart you are and put out this Mark .....the world needs good positive stories so please don't ruin the party

IT IS A NEW RECORD

And it will be another record when it get to 6000 by Xmas