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  1. #21
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    As I said before we may see steep fall in commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD. However CAD may have some support in 2015. At the moment RUB is one of the worst performing currencies in the world. YEN and MYR are also weak. Selected emerging currencies also may have some support. 2015 may be good year for currency market as well. It will be year for USD. One USD could equal to NZD50 and AUD55 by the end of next year.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  2. #22
    El Toro~
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    I don't agree with the NZD sitting anywhere near that by any means next year, given that the RBNZ came out last week stating they plan on continuing to increase rates over the next 24 months despite the falling dairy prices (the explicitly stated they weren't neutral and were looking for to continue increasing when it permits) and the face the FED keeps delaying hiking rates at their end. I would suspect that we stay where we are for another 3-4 months with a 1.5c range either side and then should the Fed finally do something with their rates we would decline by IMHO at most 10c, I don't think we will go below 0.69.

    As for the AUD I suspect we will gain some forward momentum and potentially see close to parity given the falling Iron-ore and commodity prices in Australia, pairing this with the fact market commentators have been stating the RBA should not be hiking rates due to the mining sector being in a tough spot I don't think we will see the AUD gain much traction against the NZD this coming year. I think you will see a strong year on the NZX paired against an under-performing year on the ASX, just my opinion. DYOR.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Australia need a lower exchange rate to achieve balanced growth in the economy. When AUD fall NZD also will fall. IMHO 2015 will be very interesting year for some currencies especially for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. After EURO, Yen and now RUB, above two currencies are more vulnerable to further fall. Even the federal government's $100 billion Future Fund has cut its exposure to the Australian dollar. Actually both AUD and NZD are at the beginning of their major downturn. Just like other market cycles that is how currency cycle works. We may see fall in these two currencies until 2016/17.

    According to valuation metrics of some currency advisers, they have a long-term fair value at around AUD 70. I think before it adjusts to fair value it could trade 55/55c against one USD.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 14-12-2014 at 06:10 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...10024E20150720

    FOREX-U.S. dollar hits three-month peak on rate-hike view

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