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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER View Post
    I did 10 year analysis on few selected currencies including few frontier and emerging market currencies and how they traded against USD, NZD and AUD.In 2004 one dollar was equal to 45 Indian rupees and by 2008 it was around 39 rupees for one dollar while having fluctuations time to time. Then one dollar went up to Indian rupee 49 by2009. Indian rupee has appreciated against USD from 2004 to 2008 and from 2008to 2009 it has depreciated fast against USD. From 2009 to latter part of 2011 Indian rupee has appreciated from around Rs.49 to Rs.44 against USD. From 2012 to Indian rupee has depreciated against USD gradually while having volatility to around Rs.53 level. During last couple of day Indian rupee depreciated against USD faster than we thought. Now one USD dollar is equal to 59 Indian rupees.

    USD has appreciated around Rs.90to Rs.116/- against Sri-Lankan rupee form 2004 to 2009 while having minor volatility.From 2009 to 2012. Sri-Lankan rupee has appreciated from Rs.116 to Rs.109 against USD. In 2012 there were devaluation of rupee and as a result of that USD went up against Sri-Lankan rupee. Otherwise rupee would have appreciated more. Now USD is appreciating against Sri-Lankan rupee and trading around Rs.129 against USD.

    From 2004 to 2008 Malaysian ringgit has appreciated from MYR 3.8 to around 3.20 against USD. From 2008 to 2009 it depreciated against USD to MYR around 3.50 levels. From 2009 to later part of 2011 again MYR appreciated against USD to MYR around 3 levels. From 2012 to2103 MYR was trading around 3.06 levels while having volatility and recently it has depreciated to MYR 3.09 to level against USD.

    In 2004 NZD dollar was trading around Sri-Lankan rupees 55 and by 2008 NZD appreciated rapidly against Sri-Lankan rupee to Rs.85 levels. Then from 2008 to middle of 2009 Rupee appreciated against NZD to around Rs.60 level. From 2009 to 2013 NZD has appreciated to around Rs.109. Recently rupee started to appreciate against NZD and trading around Rs.99against NZD.

    In 2004 one NZD was around 26 Indian rupees and by 2008 it was depreciated against NZD to around Rs.33 level while having range bound around Rs.27 to Rs.31. From 2008 to 2009 Indian rupee appreciated to around Rs.26 against NZD and thereafter it NZD appreciated rapidly to INR around Rs.45 levels. In 2009 AUD was trading around Indian rupee 32 levels and it depreciated against AUD rapidly during last couple of years and was trading around INR 55 against AUD by 2013.

    In 2009 AUD was trading around Sri-Lankan rupee 80 and it has appreciated against rupee rapidly and by2013 it was trading around Rs.135 and now it is trading around Rs.118/

    Based on the above analysis NZD and AUD has appreciated not only against USD but also against some emerging and frontier currencies by more than 80% during last couple of years. Onthe other hand Malaysian ringgit has traded as a sister currency to both AUD and NZD. Even in emerging world and frontier world they invested more in NZDand AUD during last couple of years neglecting pound, euro and USD. Now currency cycle has changed and emerging world currencies are falling against USD. Finally USD has become number one bull currency. AUD, NZD and few emerging currencies have become bear currencies now. I believe Euro and Pound will not go down as other currencies as they have already factored to negative economic indicators. Both NZD and AUD will accelerate their bear journey now.

    My ideas are nota recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Thank you for the history lesson MARKETWINNER..

    Currencies do not follow historic paths IMHO..

  2. #17
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/22/...N0GM1Z020140822

    U.S. dollar net longs at highest in more than two years: CFTC, Reuters

  3. #18
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/mar...2014/08/26/02/
    US Dollar: Can't stop, won't stop


  4. #19
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle20796048/

    U.S. dollar climbs to four-year high amid rate-hike speculation Add to ...


  5. #20
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    Thought you guys might like this. It's what happens when your leader acts like a douche and your main export commodity gets slammed (USD VS RUB)

    http://bigcharts.com/advchart/frames...false&state=11

  6. #21
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    As I said before we may see steep fall in commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD. However CAD may have some support in 2015. At the moment RUB is one of the worst performing currencies in the world. YEN and MYR are also weak. Selected emerging currencies also may have some support. 2015 may be good year for currency market as well. It will be year for USD. One USD could equal to NZD50 and AUD55 by the end of next year.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  7. #22
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    I don't agree with the NZD sitting anywhere near that by any means next year, given that the RBNZ came out last week stating they plan on continuing to increase rates over the next 24 months despite the falling dairy prices (the explicitly stated they weren't neutral and were looking for to continue increasing when it permits) and the face the FED keeps delaying hiking rates at their end. I would suspect that we stay where we are for another 3-4 months with a 1.5c range either side and then should the Fed finally do something with their rates we would decline by IMHO at most 10c, I don't think we will go below 0.69.

    As for the AUD I suspect we will gain some forward momentum and potentially see close to parity given the falling Iron-ore and commodity prices in Australia, pairing this with the fact market commentators have been stating the RBA should not be hiking rates due to the mining sector being in a tough spot I don't think we will see the AUD gain much traction against the NZD this coming year. I think you will see a strong year on the NZX paired against an under-performing year on the ASX, just my opinion. DYOR.

  8. #23
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Australia need a lower exchange rate to achieve balanced growth in the economy. When AUD fall NZD also will fall. IMHO 2015 will be very interesting year for some currencies especially for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. After EURO, Yen and now RUB, above two currencies are more vulnerable to further fall. Even the federal government's $100 billion Future Fund has cut its exposure to the Australian dollar. Actually both AUD and NZD are at the beginning of their major downturn. Just like other market cycles that is how currency cycle works. We may see fall in these two currencies until 2016/17.

    According to valuation metrics of some currency advisers, they have a long-term fair value at around AUD 70. I think before it adjusts to fair value it could trade 55/55c against one USD.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 14-12-2014 at 06:10 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  9. #24
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...10024E20150720

    FOREX-U.S. dollar hits three-month peak on rate-hike view

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