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  1. #11
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by delinky View Post
    I am so glad I asked the question. .
    Me too delinky. Thanks everyone.

  2. #12
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    It looks to me like the Chinese are getting ready to float their currency in the future, maybe a few years time or even sooner. They are currently testing the market to see what the reaction is.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi...ement-facility

    I have a tendency to be long on the Hong Kong dollar.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    It looks to me like the Chinese are getting ready to float their currency in the future, maybe a few years time or even sooner. They are currently testing the market to see what the reaction is.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi...ement-facility

    I have a tendency to be long on the Hong Kong dollar.
    Agree Doc

    "The following is a comment made by the Deputy Foreign minister to a group of visiting business people. There was no maybe or conversation on the topic. It was emphatic.

    “The financial crisis has fully exposed some shortcomings in the international currency system.

    China is not seeking discussions but wants a diversified reserve currency.”

    Last week the Bank of China renewed its call for the creation of a super sovereign reserve currency (defined as a basket of currencies) to reduce the dollar’s global domination."
    Running with the Bulls!!
    Go with the flow
    slimbo

  4. #14
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    .US Dollar is very strong now.

    During last couple of days we saw heavy selling in all type of currencies including emerging and frontier market currencies. USD appreciated against most currencies such NZD, AUD, Indian and Sri-Lankan rupees, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine pesoetc. Why? Currency market is readjusting now. There are silver linings in these falling currencies. Because some sectors in the economy will benefit lot.

    Both the Brazilian real and South African rand touched four-year lowsagainst the US dollar on Tuesday. The Indian rupee fell to a record low. Evencountries like the Philippines and Mexico have been hit by heavy selling. Somecentral banks have begun to intervene to control the currency slides. If I amcorrect The FTSE Emerging Markets index fell 1.7 per cent on Tuesday.

    We have to accept USD dollar was underperforming against some currencies bothhard and soft currencies such as NZD, AUD, and Indian rupee due to overspeculations. As I said before it has become bull currency now. In other wordsthe dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle. USD is number one reservecurrency in the world.

    Every asset has cycles. We have to identify this cycles before others. Both NZD and AUD have appreciated more than 50% against some south Asian currencies during last five years. Now cycle has reversed and both NZD and AUD should depreciate not only against USD but also some emerging and frontier marketscurrencies in Asia. Few Asian currencies including India rupee will go up against NZD, AUD and CAD in the coming quarters. They will go down against USD.
    On the other hand USD will appreciate not only against emerging currencies but also against currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323893504578556493706245344.html
    Indian Rupee Hits New Record Low

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-21/philippine-peso-set-for-worst-week-since-2010-on-fed-bonds-fall.html
    PhilippinePeso Set for Worst Week Since 2010 on Fed; Bonds Fall

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0EW2BL20130620

    UPDATE 1-Kenyan shilling ends weaker, shares inch up

    http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/ringgit-heads-for-biggest-weekly-loss-in-3-years-on-fed-concern/
    Ringgit Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss in 3 Years on Fed Concern

    For meabove events look like a currency war or currency crisis. Actually we arehaving a kind of gold and currency crisis now. These new developments will bring fortune for some companies in developed, emerging and frontier marketsdue to unexpected increase in profits when they convert currencies. So theywill have strong balance sheets in the coming financial year when compare with current financial year.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or takeresponsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

  5. #15
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I did 10 year analysis on few selected currencies including few frontier and emerging market currencies and how they traded against USD, NZD and AUD.In 2004 one dollar was equal to 45 Indian rupees and by 2008 it was around 39 rupees for one dollar while having fluctuations time to time. Then one dollar went up to Indian rupee 49 by2009. Indian rupee has appreciated against USD from 2004 to 2008 and from 2008to 2009 it has depreciated fast against USD. From 2009 to latter part of 2011 Indian rupee has appreciated from around Rs.49 to Rs.44 against USD. From 2012 to Indian rupee has depreciated against USD gradually while having volatility to around Rs.53 level. During last couple of day Indian rupee depreciated against USD faster than we thought. Now one USD dollar is equal to 59 Indian rupees.

    USD has appreciated around Rs.90to Rs.116/- against Sri-Lankan rupee form 2004 to 2009 while having minor volatility.From 2009 to 2012. Sri-Lankan rupee has appreciated from Rs.116 to Rs.109 against USD. In 2012 there were devaluation of rupee and as a result of that USD went up against Sri-Lankan rupee. Otherwise rupee would have appreciated more. Now USD is appreciating against Sri-Lankan rupee and trading around Rs.129 against USD.

    From 2004 to 2008 Malaysian ringgit has appreciated from MYR 3.8 to around 3.20 against USD. From 2008 to 2009 it depreciated against USD to MYR around 3.50 levels. From 2009 to later part of 2011 again MYR appreciated against USD to MYR around 3 levels. From 2012 to2103 MYR was trading around 3.06 levels while having volatility and recently it has depreciated to MYR 3.09 to level against USD.

    In 2004 NZD dollar was trading around Sri-Lankan rupees 55 and by 2008 NZD appreciated rapidly against Sri-Lankan rupee to Rs.85 levels. Then from 2008 to middle of 2009 Rupee appreciated against NZD to around Rs.60 level. From 2009 to 2013 NZD has appreciated to around Rs.109. Recently rupee started to appreciate against NZD and trading around Rs.99against NZD.

    In 2004 one NZD was around 26 Indian rupees and by 2008 it was depreciated against NZD to around Rs.33 level while having range bound around Rs.27 to Rs.31. From 2008 to 2009 Indian rupee appreciated to around Rs.26 against NZD and thereafter it NZD appreciated rapidly to INR around Rs.45 levels. In 2009 AUD was trading around Indian rupee 32 levels and it depreciated against AUD rapidly during last couple of years and was trading around INR 55 against AUD by 2013.

    In 2009 AUD was trading around Sri-Lankan rupee 80 and it has appreciated against rupee rapidly and by2013 it was trading around Rs.135 and now it is trading around Rs.118/

    Based on the above analysis NZD and AUD has appreciated not only against USD but also against some emerging and frontier currencies by more than 80% during last couple of years. Onthe other hand Malaysian ringgit has traded as a sister currency to both AUD and NZD. Even in emerging world and frontier world they invested more in NZDand AUD during last couple of years neglecting pound, euro and USD. Now currency cycle has changed and emerging world currencies are falling against USD. Finally USD has become number one bull currency. AUD, NZD and few emerging currencies have become bear currencies now. I believe Euro and Pound will not go down as other currencies as they have already factored to negative economic indicators. Both NZD and AUD will accelerate their bear journey now.

    My ideas are nota recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 22-06-2013 at 04:55 PM.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER View Post
    I did 10 year analysis on few selected currencies including few frontier and emerging market currencies and how they traded against USD, NZD and AUD.In 2004 one dollar was equal to 45 Indian rupees and by 2008 it was around 39 rupees for one dollar while having fluctuations time to time. Then one dollar went up to Indian rupee 49 by2009. Indian rupee has appreciated against USD from 2004 to 2008 and from 2008to 2009 it has depreciated fast against USD. From 2009 to latter part of 2011 Indian rupee has appreciated from around Rs.49 to Rs.44 against USD. From 2012 to Indian rupee has depreciated against USD gradually while having volatility to around Rs.53 level. During last couple of day Indian rupee depreciated against USD faster than we thought. Now one USD dollar is equal to 59 Indian rupees.

    USD has appreciated around Rs.90to Rs.116/- against Sri-Lankan rupee form 2004 to 2009 while having minor volatility.From 2009 to 2012. Sri-Lankan rupee has appreciated from Rs.116 to Rs.109 against USD. In 2012 there were devaluation of rupee and as a result of that USD went up against Sri-Lankan rupee. Otherwise rupee would have appreciated more. Now USD is appreciating against Sri-Lankan rupee and trading around Rs.129 against USD.

    From 2004 to 2008 Malaysian ringgit has appreciated from MYR 3.8 to around 3.20 against USD. From 2008 to 2009 it depreciated against USD to MYR around 3.50 levels. From 2009 to later part of 2011 again MYR appreciated against USD to MYR around 3 levels. From 2012 to2103 MYR was trading around 3.06 levels while having volatility and recently it has depreciated to MYR 3.09 to level against USD.

    In 2004 NZD dollar was trading around Sri-Lankan rupees 55 and by 2008 NZD appreciated rapidly against Sri-Lankan rupee to Rs.85 levels. Then from 2008 to middle of 2009 Rupee appreciated against NZD to around Rs.60 level. From 2009 to 2013 NZD has appreciated to around Rs.109. Recently rupee started to appreciate against NZD and trading around Rs.99against NZD.

    In 2004 one NZD was around 26 Indian rupees and by 2008 it was depreciated against NZD to around Rs.33 level while having range bound around Rs.27 to Rs.31. From 2008 to 2009 Indian rupee appreciated to around Rs.26 against NZD and thereafter it NZD appreciated rapidly to INR around Rs.45 levels. In 2009 AUD was trading around Indian rupee 32 levels and it depreciated against AUD rapidly during last couple of years and was trading around INR 55 against AUD by 2013.

    In 2009 AUD was trading around Sri-Lankan rupee 80 and it has appreciated against rupee rapidly and by2013 it was trading around Rs.135 and now it is trading around Rs.118/

    Based on the above analysis NZD and AUD has appreciated not only against USD but also against some emerging and frontier currencies by more than 80% during last couple of years. Onthe other hand Malaysian ringgit has traded as a sister currency to both AUD and NZD. Even in emerging world and frontier world they invested more in NZDand AUD during last couple of years neglecting pound, euro and USD. Now currency cycle has changed and emerging world currencies are falling against USD. Finally USD has become number one bull currency. AUD, NZD and few emerging currencies have become bear currencies now. I believe Euro and Pound will not go down as other currencies as they have already factored to negative economic indicators. Both NZD and AUD will accelerate their bear journey now.

    My ideas are nota recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Thank you for the history lesson MARKETWINNER..

    Currencies do not follow historic paths IMHO..

  7. #17
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/22/...N0GM1Z020140822

    U.S. dollar net longs at highest in more than two years: CFTC, Reuters

  8. #18
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/mar...2014/08/26/02/
    US Dollar: Can't stop, won't stop


  9. #19
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle20796048/

    U.S. dollar climbs to four-year high amid rate-hike speculation Add to ...


  10. #20
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    Thought you guys might like this. It's what happens when your leader acts like a douche and your main export commodity gets slammed (USD VS RUB)

    http://bigcharts.com/advchart/frames...false&state=11

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