Interest Rates - Where to next?

[neopoleII]

people who abuse the benifit system should be barred from recieving one.
people who abuse or cheat landlords should also be barred or punished and registered.

another problem is that the govt doesnt take alot of action against those who cheat the system, whether benifit fraud or abuse or investment property speculation.

i would be happy for a fairer system both ways which would leave room for the genuine investor landlord and an opertunity for low incomers (who do try to save) to get a home.
but as it stands low class properties are in demand from high income earners for the govt funded rents and cap gains and tax deferments.

[beacon]

fair point. Not sure if demand for economic end stock is solely for renters though. Also, at the moment lending seems tight for property investors...

[neopoleII]

i see we're posting sound bites now......
all it says is home affordabiltiy is improving....... thats a long way from affordable.
the ratio of afforability is still way off from long term averages.
we are still in masive debt, and unemployment is rising.

having said that, my brother is a partner in a civil enginereering/ surveying co and he has mentioned that subdivisons are moving again.....
so some folks are hoping for an early worm.
but that is just the typical property speculation syndrome that kiwis suffer from.

my bet is the govt will have to step in at some stage.

[The GrandMaster]

i see we're posting sound bites now......

"now"?

TGM

[POSSUM THE CAT]

How long before interest rates have to Increase. there will be a lot of money cross the Tasman until they do

[peat]

Interest rates are likely to experience upward pressure but despite the yearly bullish engulfing candle being a worthwhile peice of information the world as a whole remains tender and any hiccough from say China or Europe could easily cause a return to lower yields. Obviously Trumps stated fiscal expansionist policies are a big factor in this turnaround of trends but they have yet to be actually implemented and may not eventuate exactly as the market appears to be anticipating.
In NZ I dont expect the OCR to be raised much if at all in 2017. The first half is too soon and the second half is the election which will induce inertia, i.e. no change.
Bondholders should be wary if they are traders, but I personally wouldnt jump ship just yet especially if they are held as part of a full portfolio with laddered duration and equity exposure.

(edit - I just realised this is in the Property forum, which my comments are not specifically related to)

[winner69]

Wheeler is the worst RB Governor we have ever had - we'll pay for it in a couple of years

He has serious personal issues

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1...-economisthtml

[Aaron]

Wheeler is the worst RB Governor we have ever had - we'll pay for it in a couple of years

He has serious personal issues

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1...-economisthtml

What is Wheeler doing that reserve bank governors haven't been doing for the last 20 to 30 years? Sounds like Topliss just annoyed Wheeler made him look clueless. I would have thought reserve bank governors and economists learnt the same thing at school. It is not a science it is a study of human behavior.

[neopoleII]

i dont think floating interest rates will rise for quite a while.
what with the rising dollar affecting export incomes, and possibly jobs in the export sector.
and house prices are still high compared to incomes, this link states the median incomes for All nzers and then wage and salary earners......... the numbers are not pretty.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10602017

and then the tax working review group who have to find a way to reavaluate the tax system, they mention alot about investment property and the lack of tax income for the ird from it.
lots of hurdles to get through, but something will happen,
which when it does, should take the preasure of interest rates as well.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10601862

[POSSUM THE CAT]

NeopoleII I already have 65% of my wealth across the tasman and unless NZ interest rates hit at least 3% by Cristmas a lot more of it will be over there and if you are Japanese or Chinese or any other race are you going to accept 2.5% from NZ or 3.5% from Australia So who are you going to borrow money from. KIwis with money are sending it to Australia