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01-04-2020, 03:30 PM
#1331
Junior Member
Originally Posted by winner69
The word ‘covenant’ was mentioned a few times eh ....that’s the signal
Get your popcorn out and enjoy the show, volatility, halting, CR, historic announcements and bailouts, today's market has it all!
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01-04-2020, 03:49 PM
#1332
At least shareholders who want to make a real killing Can also apply for some of Rod’s shares
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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02-04-2020, 08:23 AM
#1333
Captain Kirk’s biggest challenge since the 87 Rugby World Cup
Hasn’t always tasted success though ...a bakery he was involved in went bust
He made a few bob out of Bailador Tech though.
Good guy though
.
Last edited by winner69; 02-04-2020 at 08:28 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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02-04-2020, 08:50 AM
#1334
At least they being up front with those who are going to put heaps in
» In addition, the Group’s trading performance once stores reopen may be worse than anticipated, whether due to demand being slower to return than anticipated, margins being reduced due to the activity of competitors or the need for greater discounting than usual to attract customers, cost reductions having a negative impact on the Group’s ability to recommence operations quickly and effectively or other unforeseen factors. If these factors arise, they may have a material adverse effect on the Group’s financial position and performance
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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02-04-2020, 09:33 AM
#1335
Member
Been thinking about these guys more recently....
My general feeling has gone from somewhat negative to full on bear for a few reasons... Most of this is centered around Kathmandu rather than RipCurl and Obaz as I know more about it and from an earnings perspective is the cash generator of the bunch.
As posted above, Kathmandu is really the business they are by identifying a thin niche within the consumer goods market. They arent the best 'rag trader', holding ~17 weeks of inventory (IMHO HLG is good performer on global standards) but they knew who their customer was and effectively sold into that market. What is really probamatic is that their product portfolio from a purchasing perspective is quite 'activity related' i.e. if you need to buy everyday items you dont necessarily think of Kathmandu (and their marketing isnt aligned this way), but if you are travelling, or spending time in the outdoors then thats their niche. From a $ perspective product is 'upper mid' and so in a reduced economy that same niche of consumers will look to trade down within the category. The macro social/consumer effects over the next 2 years are going to seriously work against them, I know of other large brands which are re-configuring focus of their porfolio to be on the right side of these changes. Likewise their online sales arent amazing (though growing well rec
Also, I dont think (and somewhat know from discussions I've had with senior staff through my work) that they dont have near the brand equity around ethical/sustainability to keep those concisous consumers in a downturn (they list ~600M of intangibles on their balance sheet(. Moreover, from some social media posts I've seen (and joining all of the dots) they are withholding payment to local NZ suppliers of theirs....
IMHO, unless they do some serious turning of the ship they are going to be in some serious trouble. Their high levels of inventory holding (due to seasonal business) will come back to bite them. Has anyone stress tested their numbers? Asuming the raise goes ahead and the cost out initiatives they have outlined, are they able to swallow a -25% best case/ -50% worse case decline in revenue?
Sorry long post of rant
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02-04-2020, 09:47 AM
#1336
Originally Posted by kiwidollabill
Been thinking about these guys more recently....
My general feeling has gone from somewhat negative to full on bear for a few reasons... Most of this is centered around Kathmandu rather than RipCurl and Obaz as I know more about it and from an earnings perspective is the cash generator of the bunch.
As posted above, Kathmandu is really the business they are by identifying a thin niche within the consumer goods market. They arent the best 'rag trader', holding ~17 weeks of inventory (IMHO HLG is good performer on global standards) but they knew who their customer was and effectively sold into that market. What is really probamatic is that their product portfolio from a purchasing perspective is quite 'activity related' i.e. if you need to buy everyday items you dont necessarily think of Kathmandu (and their marketing isnt aligned this way), but if you are travelling, or spending time in the outdoors then thats their niche. From a $ perspective product is 'upper mid' and so in a reduced economy that same niche of consumers will look to trade down within the category. The macro social/consumer effects over the next 2 years are going to seriously work against them, I know of other large brands which are re-configuring focus of their porfolio to be on the right side of these changes. Likewise their online sales arent amazing (though growing well rec
Also, I dont think (and somewhat know from discussions I've had with senior staff through my work) that they dont have near the brand equity around ethical/sustainability to keep those concisous consumers in a downturn (they list ~600M of intangibles on their balance sheet(. Moreover, from some social media posts I've seen (and joining all of the dots) they are withholding payment to local NZ suppliers of theirs....
IMHO, unless they do some serious turning of the ship they are going to be in some serious trouble. Their high levels of inventory holding (due to seasonal business) will come back to bite them. Has anyone stress tested their numbers? Asuming the raise goes ahead and the cost out initiatives they have outlined, are they able to swallow a -25% best case/ -50% worse case decline in revenue?
Sorry long post of rant
Good post bill
That’s how I’ve felt for a few years....a lot based on the lack of growth in kathmandu brand sales in NZ which was also starting to show in Australia.
Yoy mention intangibles of $634m (acquisition driven) but over $300m in lease liabilities could be the killer
No wonder they noted in the financials they’ll be in breach of bank convenants any day soon.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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02-04-2020, 10:23 AM
#1337
IMO once the retail sector opens again - whenever that will be customers will keep their cash very close for the next 8-9 months or until Xmass when there will be a short burst, this is the first time that the cool generation have had any sort of set back and they now believe in what is impossible to happen can happen and they will adjust their thinking and actions to this new paradigm.
IMO the S P will take quite a while to find a sustainable base perhaps until next years final results, if things and not handled carefully Kathmandu could go the way of Pumpkin Patch !! sad very sad imo!
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02-04-2020, 10:44 AM
#1338
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Good post bill
That’s how I’ve felt for a few years....a lot based on the lack of growth in kathmandu brand sales in NZ which was also starting to show in Australia.
Yoy mention intangibles of $634m (acquisition driven) but over $300m in lease liabilities could be the killer
No wonder they noted in the financials they’ll be in breach of bank convenants any day soon.
Anyone know who the unnamed ïnvestment houses are who are underwriting this issue?
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02-04-2020, 11:24 AM
#1339
Originally Posted by Lola
Anyone know who the unnamed ïnvestment houses are who are underwriting this issue?
With rod not taking up his lot probably a big shortfall
Could be interesting
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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02-04-2020, 11:31 AM
#1340
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
With rod not taking up his lot probably a big shortfall
Could be interesting
If they dont get 150M the banks will get grumpy.
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