KMD - Kathmandu

[nztx]

Isn't any prospect of a reduced KMD Divy now going to be cut twice as many ways ?

Assuming the doors don't stay locked for too long ?

I guess the Huge Cap Raise to save the ship may still be coming home to roost for some
poor stakeholders .. but a few smarter ones caught up with the action in last years dip ..
so still have opportunity to flit out the open top fanlight if need be ..

but ...

it could be a darn sight worse .. for example - like a share consolidation to reduce numbers of issued
shares back down to some not so stupid useful levels, in case another Cap Raise becomes necessary
to further bail things out of the ditch .. if things start looking terminal again ..

[BlackPeter]

The pot calling the kettle black !

Black - Yes; sludge - No ;

[BlackPeter]

The pot calling the kettle black !

Black - Yes; sludge - No ; Duplicate - Yes; Removed - No; Server performance woeful - YES!!!

[Waltzing]

This is a money making trading stock. Trade it and fade it.

[Greekwatchdog]

Not a bad comeback after yesterdays downgrade...For Bars take on it..

OUTPERFORM
12 month target $1.70

Kathmandu (KMD) has lowered its FY21 earnings guidance as lockdowns across Australia weigh on sales during the key
winter period. Although sales disruption is poorly timed, commentary suggests underlying brand performance is healthy,
with Kathmandu tracking at pre COVID-19 levels as it entered winter, while Rip Curl is delivering strong growth in the
Northern Hemisphere as consumer mobility improves. KMD remains well positioned over the medium-term as it benefits
from favourable category exposure, while longer-term earnings growth opportunity exists from international expansion of
the Kathmandu brand. On a 12m forward PE ratio of 12.5x, KMD continues to trade at a discount to peers. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
Earnings downgrade driven by restricted trading in Australia
Lockdowns in Western Australia (minimum of four days), New South Wales (minimum of two weeks), and an earlier two week
lockdown in Victoria have impacted KMD sales. As a result the company has guided to group revenue of c. NZ$930m and pre-IFRS 16
underlying EBITDA of c. NZ$120m, with the implied EBITDA impact from the lockdowns c. NZ$13m. We understand that impact
captures the effect of announced restrictions only, with any extension/expansion creating further earnings downside. We estimate
that a one week extension to the New South Wales lockdown would have a c. -NZ$4m impact to EBITDA. The update highlights the
ongoing trading risk from potential COVID-19 flare ups. However, we suspect KMD is more exposed to this trading risk than other
retailers given 1) the poor timing during a seasonally important period, and 2) stay at home orders likely limit any weather related
consumer purchasing prompts.
Underlying brand performance appears strong
Encouragingly, underlying brand performance appears healthy. Early winter sale indications for Kathmandu, implied sales consistent
with pre COVID-19 levels, while Northern Hemisphere sales for Rip Curl and Oboz have been tracking at double digit growth ahead
of FY19. We suspect supply chain congestion is likely limiting further sales growth for Rip Curl, with demand for wetsuits outpacing
the ability to supply. We remain positive on KMD's brand positioning over the medium-term given 1) beneficial category exposure, 2)
its sustainability credentials, and 3) further Kathmandu brand product development expected in FY22, providing a lever to drive good
customer engagement.

[Waltzing]

Stock performed well far better than expected but the the outdoor KMD store may suffer for a few years to come putting downward pressure on the stock.

There is so much money brought forward in the market that buying pressure seems to be holding everything up.

Sometimes a stock is a trade and sometimes they are a hold.

18 months is a trade, not taxable as a single transaction generally as long as it was not one of many.

5-10 years is an investment.

[Greekwatchdog]

Im not a trader, I have this down for a 18 month hold..Good luck if you are..

[Waltzing]

18 months KMD stores will just be starting to pick up some travellers.

[Habits]

"18 months is a trade, not taxable though.
5-10 years is an investment."

This would put me firmly in the trader camp even though I am not.... for IRD purpose, being a trader is all about intention at time of purchase and not the length of time held

[777]

"18 months is a trade, not taxable though.
5-10 years is an investment."

This would put me firmly in the trader camp even though I am not.... for IRD purpose, being a trader is all about intention at time of purchase and not the length of time held

Exactly...