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Thread: KMD - Kathmandu

  1. #1811
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm - looks like Abigale didn't get your memo:

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...606/380019.pdf

    Question is - does she as a director know more or less about the company than an anonymous poster?

    So difficult ...
    Averaging down after she bought at $1.57 a year ago - average price now $1.31 .... now $36k under water

    She seems to be following what Liz Coutts does - poor Liz keeps buying Oceania shares and is best part of 1/4 million bucks under water

    I suppose both are very astute and must have inside info (faith and hope) so no worries
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1812
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Averaging down after she bought at $1.57 a year ago - average price now $1.31 .... now $36k under water

    She seems to be following what Liz Coutts does - poor Liz keeps buying Oceania shares and is best part of 1/4 million bucks under water

    I suppose both are very astute and must have inside info (faith and hope) so no worries
    I guess this is the problem with directors - as none of us does, they don't know the future either.

    The only thing they might know more about than us is the present situation of their company and how it is positioned.

    Anyway - director buying is normally a good sign unless you are shorter ;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #1813
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I guess this is the problem with directors - as none of us does, they don't know the future either.

    The only thing they might know more about than us is the present situation of their company and how it is positioned.

    Anyway - director buying is normally a good sign unless you are shorter ;
    Hey BP, another Director has bought more shares --- double good sign today ... exciting

    Probably Chairman David sent the word out 'Our share price is really languishing, it is your duty to buy some more shares to demonstrate all is fine and the future is good. The market loves seeing director's confidence being backed up by cash '
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1814
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    It’s all on

    Kathmandu announces new global expansion at Paris Fashion Week

    Outdoor clothing retailer Kathmandu went to the biggest fashion event of the year to release its latest clothing range and announce a new global expansion into the UK, Europe and North America.

    The outdoor apparel and gear brand partnered with the internationally renowned French retailer Leclaireur, based in Paris, to debut its autumn and winter 2022 collection.

    Kathmandu’s global chief customer officer Eva Barrett said the collaboration with Leclaireur heralded the start of an exciting period for Kathmandu.


    https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/r...s-fashion-week
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1815
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hey BP, another Director has bought more shares --- double good sign today ... exciting

    Probably Chairman David sent the word out 'Our share price is really languishing, it is your duty to buy some more shares to demonstrate all is fine and the future is good. The market loves seeing director's confidence being backed up by cash '
    And the directors just don't stop buying - here is the third director in a row adding around 50k .... and still more exciting - for Philip it is already the second dip (he initially bought already 200k):

    https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/400213

    Must be well above one years worth of director fees ... do they know something the market doesn't?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 10-10-2022 at 11:05 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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  7. #1817
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Recaster View Post
    Mmh - well ...

    I think your recasting method is interesting and certainly might give others another tool how to analyse companies. Good source for ideas.

    I think as well that you do highlight some valid points, however without painting or putting them into the big picture. This is likely to mislead anybody who is just relying on this analysis.

    Example: It is correct that dividend was this year higher than earnings, however their average annual earnings is significantly higher than their dividend, and at this stage there are strong indications that 2022 was an unusually bad year.

    Example: Yes, "Kathmandu CEO" resigned and has not yet been replaced. What you forget to mention is that he was only the Brand CEO without meaningful competences and reporting into the Group CEO, who has not changed and is currently doing as well the Brand CEO role. No big deal.

    Example: You mention the low performance of OBOZ without even mentioning the reason. Their factory is in Vietnam, and had been shut down last FY for several months due to local Covid restrictions. Difficult to spin money when you are not allowed to run your factory. However - there are good reasons to assume that last year was a one off and indications from Q4 are that demand and production are humming.

    Example: You didn't even mention that directors are holding significant share parcels and that they topped up recently in a meaningful way.

    Ah yes - and you make it sound like changing the auditor is a bad thing. It is one of the NZSA (NZ Shareholders Association) recommendations that companies change their auditors at least once every (I think) 7 years. This avoids auditors and companies getting too cosy with each other and it avoids assumptions on the side of the auditors. Great that Kathmandu is doing that ... and beating them up for changing their auditors is clearly inappropriate.

    In summary - I think your method is adding value, however to produce reports which matter you would need to look as well beyond the last two years in the books, but analyse longer term trends as well as try to understand and convey the context of the company you are analysing.

    Anyway - just my 2 cents worth ;
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 26-10-2022 at 09:53 AM. Reason: added comment on auditors and director holdings
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #1818
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Anybody else noticed the recent Share price move, or did you all take KMD out of your portfolios and watchlists after the recent fashionable doom and gloom period?

    SP moved above MA100 (the pink line below) and so far holding. Sure - early signs, but certainly worthwhile to watch. I like the green shoots coming out in spring ;

    KMD.JPG

    Discl: holding;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #1819
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Anybody else noticed the recent Share price move, or did you all take KMD out of your portfolios and watchlists after the recent fashionable doom and gloom period?

    SP moved above MA100 (the pink line below) and so far holding. Sure - early signs, but certainly worthwhile to watch. I like the green shoots coming out in spring ;

    KMD.JPG

    Discl: holding;
    I just started buying in. Must be great minds thinking alike, or maybe just coincidence.

  10. #1820
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Deserves a big rave - today's announcement

    Q1 FY23 underlying operating profit has improved by nearly $30m year-on-year

    All back to normal

    A broker had a $1.75 target not long ago --- share price heading back that way ..... middle of next year
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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