KMD - Kathmandu

[BlackPeter]

ROE= 4.3%
FCF Yield= 4.2%

I dare not calc the ROIC because i assume its value destruction

Interesting ... my spreadsheet came up with a ROE of 5.7%. While still not flash ... which input do you use to arrive at 4.3%? Did you take out the gains through currency movements?

[Rawz]

Interesting ... my spreadsheet came up with a ROE of 5.7%. While still not flash ... which input do you use to arrive at 4.3%? Did you take out the gains through currency movements?

Yes used npat of $36m not the comprehensive income of $48m

[Rawz]

BP they generated $24.6m in free cash flow and then pay out $43.3m in dividends. Wow they must be confident in the future

[winner69]

I get ROE of 4.3%

[Rawz]

Market screener has profit for FY24 at $53m. Trading already behind last year so somehow they will still improve by 47%???? How?

I dont believe it

[BlackPeter]

I get ROE of 4.3%

It depends on your choice of "return".

I consider gains through hedging as "return" as well, same as I would deduct them from the return if they are losses.

[winner69]

ROE= 4.3%
FCF Yield= 4.2%

I dare not calc the ROIC because i assume its value destruction

I reckon ROIC about 4.9%

Jeez the debt leverage doesn’t even increase ROE

PWC say KMD cost of capital is 12.7% ….yes so heaps of value destruction

But no worries …..be all different in a few years time

I take it you not buying KMD

[BlackPeter]

Market screener has profit for FY24 at $53m. Trading already behind last year so somehow they will still improve by 47%???? How?

I dont believe it

Based on past observations are financial forecasts always uncorrelated to what is going to happen - i.e. it makes sense not to "believe" the forecasts collected by market screener (or anybody else) if you want to use them as model for what will happen.

If you use them however as just one possible scenario of what potentially could happen, than I found them as good as any other forecast.

Sometimes I find it useful to just develop a potential scenario which could make a particular forecast happen.

I could see a number of scenarios allowing KMD to improve its profits this FY. Whether they will happen, is another question - but then, I didn't predict in 2019 neither FPH's nor ATM's amazing fortunes (and later downturn), nor did I predict in 2021 the outbreak of Putins latest war and the related company profits or lack thereof.

So, just imagine the world returning to their senses and local as well as international tourism booming. I am sure, KMD would benefit from that.

Imagine a world improving their environmental thinking and moving to buy better stuff (and less often) instead of buying every season cheap junk. KMD would benefit from that.

Imagine a world where more people want to rediscover the outdoors and need the right gear to do that. KMD would benefit from that.

Could all happen, couldn't it? Maybe it depends just on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist?

[winner69]

BP they generated $24.6m in free cash flow and then pay out $43.3m in dividends. Wow they must be confident in the future

Funding headroom of $200m helps make that decision …..cool eh

[Azz]

Based on past observations are financial forecasts always uncorrelated to what is going to happen - i.e. it makes sense not to "believe" the forecasts collected by market screener (or anybody else) if you want to use them as model for what will happen.

If you use them however as just one possible scenario of what potentially could happen, than I found them as good as any other forecast.

Sometimes I find it useful to just develop a potential scenario which could make a particular forecast happen.

I could see a number of scenarios allowing KMD to improve its profits this FY. Whether they will happen, is another question - but then, I didn't predict in 2019 neither FPH's nor ATM's amazing fortunes (and later downturn), nor did I predict in 2021 the outbreak of Putins latest war and the related company profits or lack thereof.

So, just imagine the world returning to their senses and local as well as international tourism booming. I am sure, KMD would benefit from that.

Imagine a world improving their environmental thinking and moving to buy better stuff (and less often) instead of buying every season cheap junk. KMD would benefit from that.

Imagine a world where more people want to rediscover the outdoors and need the right gear to do that. KMD would benefit from that.

Could all happen, couldn't it? Maybe it depends just on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist?

Imagine a world where Temu exists. And 'made in China' apparel costs even less than it used to.