KMD - Kathmandu

[winner69]

Something weird with their numbers

H223 NPAT (adjusted) was $26.8m which is 40% less than $44.9m in pcp H222

Looking at rolling annual total (2 halves) at Jan 2023 it was $61.4m …now $43.3m

Seems profits are in decline

[Azz]

BlackPeter, are you banking on some form of climate event to turn this dog of a stock into a winner, much like your views on kiwifruit?

[winner69]

Muse pointed out HLG 2nd half profit was down 18% and commented it was a year of two halves

Seems the case for KMD as well so no worries

[Rawz]

KMD did increase operating cashflows by 81% and reduced inventory by $5m even though they sold $100m more stuff so thats good.

Probably best to wait for half year because the signs are already there that its going to be a tough half. so with the SP already in a downtrend + high potential for poor 1st half FY24 why buy now?

In the short term, our brands face challenges with geopolitical uncertainty, economic volatility, market competition, supply chain disruptions, and cost-of-living impacts on consumer spending. Our competitors are pricing aggressively to shift high levels of inventory and challenging our market share.

One thing to watch will be the wholesale kathmandu sales in Europe and North America. If that booms it could be boomtime for the SP... Current is $2m odd or something negligible like that

[winner69]

Market doesn’t seem too impressed with the numbers and the rave …..share price down sub 80 cents again

[winner69]

KMD paid the best part of $100m for Oboz …..when they bought it ebitda was US$4.6m heading to US$7.1m

I see Oboz ebitda this year was NZ$7.9m …..hmmmm


Been tough times of late but you’d have to hope like anything this chart looks better over the next few years

[Azz]

This stock has got 59c written all over it.

[winner69]

I’m still trying hard to find reasons why to like KMD

But this chart showing Kathmandu brand (ie no Rip Curl etc) performance over the years is a pretty sad one ….even sadder than the Oboz one I posted yesterday.

Don’t think many retailers in ANZ are worse off post covid than before……possibly reflects management performance.

To me it also shows there’s a huge gap between KMD rave and reality ……so I’ve told myself to take the raves as just that and don’t believe much or any of it

[winner69]

Forbar keeping the faith in KMD and keeping OUTPERFORM … “We maintain a positive medium-term view of KMD's growth potential, and although the near-term backdrop remains challenging, we think this is mostly priced in.”

And Craig’s say KMD is their “favoured retail/consumer stock” and continues to see value at current levels.

So all OK on that front

[percy]

Craigs have eps rising from 6.09 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2024 an increase of 10% then increasing 44% to 9.67 in 2025.
Market Screener,................5....................7... .................................40%.............. ........42.85% to 10 ............,