KMD - Kathmandu

[winner69]

Can you FA guys give us a solid forecast of revenue/profits/PEG ratio/EV for KMD in FY17? Thought so

Point is, the charts first said "sell" because the cross, then the companies update said "sell" a few months ago. In this case TA came first, but it can definitely be the other way around! Point is, the market spoke: some of us listened to the first sign, some listened to the second sign, and some didn't listen at all!

We could always put the kiss of death on Kathmandu and say they are following the same path as Postie Plus and Pumpkin

[percy]

Can you ta guys give us a good new trade instead of these hindsight ones?

On 12th January 2015 I brought more SUM as the share price went above both the 50day and the 200 day EMA.I had been waiting for this to happen for over 2 months.I has stayed above the 200 day ema and so would appear it is in a new uptrend.
VIL. Went through the 200day EMA on 5th November,and the new uptrend appears to be in place.
AIR.Went through the 200 day EMA and the new uptrend is in place.

[stoploss]

On 12th January 2015 I brought more SUM as the share price went above both the 50day and the 200 day EMA.I had been waiting for this to happen for over 2 months.I has stayed above the 200 day ema and so would appear it is in a new uptrend.
VIL. Went through the 200day EMA on 5th November,and the new uptrend appears to be in place.
AIR.Went through the 200 day EMA and the new uptrend is in place.

Percy don't make it too hard for him, he asked for A trade , giving him 3 options will be confusing .....

[percy]

Percy don't make it too hard for him, he asked for A trade , giving him 3 options will be confusing .....

Right just settle for SUM as it was the last one.!!!!

[winner69]

That announcement today is a real disaster one.

Sales up on last year but turning $11m profit into a $2m loss is some effort ......looks like they have lost about 8% points of gross margin. No longer are gross margins in excess of 63%.

At best I see them making $10m to $15m profit this year, maybe $20m couta if the snow and ice and winds come early. That's an eps of 5 to 8 cents and maybe 10 cents. So at about 150 still a lot of optimism still built in.

They essentially borrowed to pay last years dividends. Hard to see where $25m of free cash going to come from to pay any decent dividend this year.

Hope this critical review and the new man sorts this mess out pronto or heaps of pain to come.

[Baa_Baa]

On 12th January 2015 I brought more SUM as the share price went above both the 50day and the 200 day EMA.I had been waiting for this to happen for over 2 months.I has stayed above the 200 day ema and so would appear it is in a new uptrend.
[snip]

Well there's an excellent example, in SUM, of acting on the price rising above the 2 MA's 50/200, though some would say that is not a confirmed trend in as much as we've have been discussing MA crossovers, it is just the price moving above those MA's. Still a reasonably confident indicator though. The more conservative approach that we've been discussing is waiting for the Golden Cross (or Death Cross) where the 50 actually crosses the 200 on the upwards (or downwards) leg, which some would say confirms the trend, which hasn't happened yet.

Last thought from me tonight ... the 50/200 MA's are so commonly used that they are sometimes thought of as self-fulfilling, i.e. if lots of people watch it, which they do, then it stands to reason that the price will move in the direction of the cross, because a lot of people watch it and many of them act on it. So a simple tactic is to tighten the MA's a bit, if you want to move earlier (more risk), or loosen them if you want to be more conservative (less risk) -- in confirming a trend.

good night all, been an interesting discussion.

[percy]

Well there's an excellent example, in SUM, of acting on the price rising above the 2 MA's 50/200, though some would say that is not a confirmed trend in as much as we've have been discussing MA crossovers, it is just the price moving above those MA's. Still a reasonably confident indicator though. The more conservative approach that we've been discussing is waiting for the Golden Cross (or Death Cross) where the 50 actually crosses the 200 on the upwards (or downwards) leg, which some would say confirms the trend, which hasn't happened yet.

Last thought from me tonight ... the 50/200 MA's are so commonly used that they are sometimes thought of as self-fulfilling, i.e. if lots of people watch it, which they do, then it stands to reason that the price will move in the direction of the cross, because a lot of people watch it and many of them act on it. So a simple tactic is to tighten the MA's a bit, if you want to move earlier (more risk), or loosen them if you want to be more conservative (less risk) -- in confirming a trend.

good night all, been an interesting discussion.

Yes,I see it is not a "Golden Cross" which we were talking about,but as you correctly point out, it was the share price rising above both the 50 day and the 200 day EMA.
I am mostly a FA investor who uses TA to time my entry and if need be exit.The share price should be above both the 50day and 200day EMAs before I buy,or about to go through the 200 day EMA..
Should a share fall below the 200 day EMA I give it a few days to "make up its mind".
Often it will come up,but if it does not, I am gone!!!
Bunter's post no.530.I also think SCL and RYM are buys.I hold both.The other stocks I don't follow.

[noodles]

Yes,I see it is not a "Golden Cross" which we were talking about,but as you correctly point out, it was the share price rising above both the 50 day and the 200 day EMA.
I am mostly a FA investor who uses TA to time my entry and if need be exit.The share price should be above both the 50day and 200day EMAs before I buy,or about to go through the 200 day EMA..
Should a share fall below the 200 day EMA I give it a few days to "make up its mind".
Often it will come up,but if it does not, I am gone!!!
Bunter's post no.530.I also think SCL and RYM are buys.I hold both.The other stocks I don't follow.

While I respect the 200 day MA as a sell signal, if a company that is trading below the 200 MA and announces a result(or forecast) that is better than expected, I'll happily buy and let the TA's come to the party late.

Likewise, if a company report a results below expectations, I'll sell (even if above the 200 MA).

The profit announcement in June14 was the signal to sell. I think this also coincided with a breach of the 200day MA.

[percy]

While I respect the 200 day MA as a sell signal, if a company that is trading below the 200 MA and announces a result(or forecast) that is better than expected, I'll happily buy and let the TA's come to the party late.

Likewise, if a company report a results below expectations, I'll sell (even if above the 200 MA).

The profit announcement in June14 was the signal to sell. I think this also coincided with a breach of the 200day MA.

TA is only one tool.Excellent though it is.
I agree with you and would buy a company that is trading below the 200 day MA, should it announce a result or forecast that is better than expected.
I also tend to sell if I don't like an announcement.regardless what the chart says.
So using FA [good research] and TA you get things right 9 out of 10 times.

[BFG]

Some very good posts going up here. I hope everyone is listening, especially newbies!