KMD - Kathmandu

[winner69]

Massive volume yesterday and today. Bloody good contest between the hopeful and the realists.

Tribeca sold 4.5 million lightening up considerably and no longer a SSH

Wonder who bought. Good deal for who ever did, maybe Superfund averaged down?

[Beagle]

More pain for unfortunate holders $1.40 ouch...while uncertainty remains over prospects for EPS if any in 2015 and while shareholders wait for the new CEO's new broom to sweep up a new approach, (possible significant restructuring costs ?) its hard to see any reason why they should rally ? Short term the outlook looks grim to me.

[bull....]

pumpkin patch anyone

[winner69]

Never reported a loss since IPO but there is always a first time

If things aren't too bad when couta's prediction of snow down to sea level often over winter I reckon they will make $15m odd this year, maybe $20m if lucky (normalised that is) - about 7.5 cents to 10 cents per share.

PE of 10 gives something south of todays price

Remember they essentially increased borrowings to pay most of last years dividend. Free cash flow was pretty minimal

Seems to be more sellers than punters screaming out for a bargain .... maybe buyers know that with Kathmandu those on their mailing list get offered even bigger discounts after the sale has 'officially' finished

[Beagle]

Harbour Asset management ceasing to be a substantial shareholder, notice posted bang on 5.00 p.m.... Those guys are fairly savvy IMHO.
Yes bull, PPL's performance suggests a fundamental change may be occurring in customers preferences in regard to high priced branded apparel.
Cavalier another example of a former big name brand where the brand name seems to mean considerably less to customers now.
Winner 69 - Mate It can't be a bargain with such fundamental uncertainty over forward earnings. I think you're earnings estimate for the year ahead is FAR too optimistic. Company has signalled they need to address customers lack of responsiveness to "so called" sales which clearly signals to me gross margins are going to come under further pressure, such pressure which will be quite significantly exacerbated by a material fall in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars since 1 January. Then there's the strong possibility of potentially quite substantial restructuring costs shortly after the new CEO takes over.
Classic short opportunity for people who are into shorting IMHO.

[tim23]

Thanks for the tips you guys im guessing you are up there in the 2015 tipping comp?

[tim23]

I reckon getting young people to wear puffer jacket s in summer is a marketing coup so don't give up yet!

[couta1]

Interesting article I read in the Business Insider Australia citing a study over a 73 year period that showed that trading the 50MA & 200MA crossover does better than buy and hold but not by all that much and is often swings and roundabouts re correct timing of entry and exit points. I also find it interesting that these big holding companies may sell down a percentage of their holding in the likes of KMD but they continue to retain a far larger percentage of their holding for the long term, just thinking aloud here.

[Baddarcy]

The way i see it is that KMD has had a bad pre-season (Summer), the market seems to be jumping all over it and assuming that means once the season (Winter) gets going proper, the bad form will continue. Personally i think that is a bit of a stretch. Summer in all the places i have been has been hot, The Warehouse ran out of fans earlier than normal. Personally I think KMD is just a victim of the nice weather.

Anyone watching the Blues knows pre season doesn't mean jack. However if the same occurs in Easter, i will happy eat my words :-)

As KMD say they make 70% of their sales in winter.

Apologies for all the rugby analogies ;-)

[BFG]

The way i see it is that KMD has had a bad pre-season (Summer), the market seems to be jumping all over it and assuming that means once the season (Winter) gets going proper, the bad form will continue. Personally i think that is a bit of a stretch. Summer in all the places i have been has been hot, The Warehouse ran out of fans earlier than normal. Personally I think KMD is just a victim of the nice weather.

Anyone watching the Blues knows pre season doesn't mean jack. However if the same occurs in Easter, i will happy eat my words :-)

As KMD say they make 70% of their sales in winter.

Apologies for all the rugby analogies ;-)

If you believe this is a cyclical stock and that the market has overreacted then it's definitely a buy.

I, however, am skeptical of a comoany that is increasing revenues but decreasing margins. Borrowing to pay divvy last year will not happen this year either (ie no silly bugger games!).

Firs thing I'd be looking for is a forward PE of 9-11 (ie still growing slightly and cashflow positive, but negative general market sentiment and iffy outlook for company), as well as NTA value if the company goes into the red (god forbid!)