KMD - Kathmandu

[iceman]

Now I remember why I missed him when he took his leave recently

Classic Winner69.
Life was so boring while you were away.!! lol.

[pennyacw]

But the period before the 20 packs of ships he sold 25 packs of ships and the period before that he sold 30 packs of ships and the period before that he sold 35 packs of ships

Get the picture - no wonder his pants are down.

To be fair the story with KMD is actually selling 1 more pack of ships when everybody thinks he should be selling 3 more packs of ships ..... but then again this morning the man on the radio said he was now selling less packs of ships than before. Ouch

(suppose you meant to say chips)

The point is even with out the growth story they still provide good earnings yield to be classed as a good investment story. As you say, it is more of a case of selling 1 more as appose to 3 more, but people are over reacting on the declining in growth story.

[GoldenStag]

The point is even with out the growth story they still provide good earnings yield to be classed as a good investment story. As you say, it is more of a case of selling 1 more as appose to 3 more, but people are over reacting on the declining in growth story.

This part is fine, but the forex kills off most of any medium and long term happiness. Chinese supply deals would be done in USD, and 2/3 of KMD sales would be done in AUD. The profit is then worked out in NZD which goes badly on the NZD side for both of these. Higher cost, lower revenue, less margin.

So, saying that it is okay in the medium and long term is to say that the Australian economy (i.e. forex) is going to be okay in the medium and long term. And most people would say that isn't a sure bet. The Chinese aren't expected to go gangbuster on Aussie ore etc in the next 5-10 years. So, the forex isn't expected to revert suddenly and cut KMD a break.

I'm not saying it is all forex, but it certainly isn't helping and any margin squeeze in the short term on top of this won't help. Exec level decisions can't get around the forex unless they start manufacturing in Australia :-)

[pennyacw]

Yes, good point - I get what you mean. I would say (think you may have already stated this point) that you would hope companies and therefore investors do not invest and put together business structures based on forex arrangement. It would be a fairly speculative act in my view.

Sound point though - can't do a thumbs up on this.

[Beagle]

The point is even with out the growth story they still provide good earnings yield to be classed as a good investment story. As you say, it is more of a case of selling 1 more as appose to 3 more, but people are over reacting on the declining in growth story.

Be very careful with historical earnings yield...can look increasingly attractive all the time as the SP keeps declining. Classic value trap this one. Consensus brokers SP target 12 months out is still $2.20...was a widespread buy by many analysts last year with a target price of $4. If one extrapolates this, brokers will be rating it a buy this time next year with a price target of $1.10 and the SP will be about 70 cents. Analysts trying to cover their butts while Rome burns ?

[pennyacw]

Yes, there are other things to look at. But if you look at historical data, historical earnings yield is a good predictor (not all the time) of investment returns for a collection of stocks. Research on the NZX and ASX market shows similar outcomes to the research conducted by value investors on US markets.

[Beagle]

Yes, there are other things to look at. But if you look at historical data, historical earnings yield is a good predictor (not all the time) of investment returns for a collection of stocks. Research on the NZX and ASX market shows similar outcomes to the research conducted by value investors on US markets.

Try telling that to Pumpkin Patch and Cavalier shareholders...

[couta1]

I stand by my belief that this company will turn things around given time no matter what anyone else says on here, just saying

[Beagle]

I stand by my belief that this company will turn things around given time no matter what anyone else says on here, just saying

"Hope springs eternal"...you've watched Shawshank Redemption too many times mate

[h2so4]

I stand by my belief that this company will turn things around given time no matter what anyone else says on here, just saying

What if I said they didn't manage one turnover of stock in the previous 6 month period.
What if I also said they burnt through $30m cash over and above the $1.8m reported loss for the same period.