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03-01-2019, 10:51 AM
#1211
Originally Posted by winner69
Didn’t take long for first earnings downgrade for the year on the NZX to come through ...and who would have thought it would be Kathmandu, and what a shocker it is
Beagle — with 10% more shares probably lower eps (depending on how they fiddle the numbers) and jeez that includes extra from Oboz. Bit of a disaster eh
What does Balance say now ....yes, downgrades come in threes (at least)
Lost money in this stock a couple of years ago, I like and use their products for skiing but they are too reliant on good seasonal sales for me to ever be a shareholder again. PS-There is plenty of competition now in the winter market.
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03-01-2019, 10:54 AM
#1212
Originally Posted by couta1
Lost money in this stock a couple of years ago, I like and use their products for skiing but they are too reliant on good seasonal sales for me to ever be a shareholder again. PS-There is plenty of competition now in the winter market.
Sure is mate. Some of those jackets we saw at Queenstown were stupidly cheap at the mountain warehouse. https://www.mountainwarehouse.com/nz/
Pleased to be out and shall retreat to my kennel and lick my wounds from this one.
Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 11:07 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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03-01-2019, 10:58 AM
#1213
Originally Posted by Beagle
What does this suggest about other retailers November / December trading ?
Lesson ..don’t believe all the hype in the media and these daily updates from Paymark. Makes good reading though and creates a bit of excitment eh
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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03-01-2019, 11:02 AM
#1214
It was a great Christmas for a few retailers.Lucky to be up 5% plus.
It was a modest Christmas for most.Lucky to be the same or minus 5% on last year.
It was a very difficult for a lot of retailers.Minus 5% to minus 15%.
KMD's business model has never appealed to me.Sale prices are what I would call normal retail.
You can fool some people some of the time,but not all of the time.
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03-01-2019, 11:23 AM
#1215
Originally Posted by Beagle
https://www.marketscreener.com/KATHM...17/financials/
Analysts are expecting an 11% increase in eps this year. A 4-8% increase in profit, (today's update) on a 7% higher weighted average number of shares on issue (last year weighted average shares on issue 211.261m, source annual report, currently 226.188m shares on issue) is likely to lead to low single digit eps contraction which is extremely disappointing after previous talk of strong growth. There is no way to sugar coat this, this trading update is a real shocker.
Momentum must have fallen off the edge of a cliff with the last 7 weeks sales for it to drag the first 15 weeks strong sales growth down ! We saw what happened to HLG when they posted a more disappointing trading update so I am OUT and not waiting to see the carnage here.
Very pleased I took just a very small opening position which I liquidated this morning at a small loss.
KMD is also in my Share trader competition picks so I am not off to a good start in 2019.
Oops, did not think about the dilution of shares. Bad results on second thoughts.
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03-01-2019, 11:28 AM
#1216
Originally Posted by Beagle
Sure is mate. Some of those jackets we saw at Queenstown were stupidly cheap at the mountain warehouse. https://www.mountainwarehouse.com/nz/
Pleased to be out and shall retreat to my kennel and lick my wounds from this one.
Thanks for the link mate, some really nice gear there at sharp prices, will be replacing my 5 yr old Kathmandu gear for some of this.
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03-01-2019, 12:23 PM
#1217
Originally Posted by winner69
Lesson ..don’t believe all the hype in the media and these daily updates from Paymark. Makes good reading though and creates a bit of excitment eh
No, a real miss, had heard retail was weak Nov/Dec however if you can't count on stats national wide from Paymark...
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03-01-2019, 12:28 PM
#1218
What they said previously
Sales for the 15 full weeks to 11 November 2018:
o Kathmandu total sales growth +8.4% at constant exchange rates*1
(excluding Oboz);
o Kathmandu same store sales growth +6.3% at constant exchange rates;*1
o Same store sales growth by country: Australia +7.1%, New Zealand
+5.2%.
OBOZ
For the first quarter of FY2019:
o Oboz sales NZD $15.7m at a gross margin of 39.8%;
o Remain on track to achieve the US$7.1m EBITDA earn-out target for the
2018 calendar year.
Kathmandu's Chief Executive Office Xavier Simonet said "we have seen
continuing demand for core Kathmandu products, following on from a successful
winter last year. We are also pleased with the continuing strong performance
of Oboz and integration into the Kathmandu Group."
Mr Simonet added "we have achieved good sales growth leading into the key
Christmas trading period, and we expect first half profit to be strongly
above last year. However, as always our first half-year result is highly
dependent on the success of our Summer Sale."
Thoughts....If first half results are so heavily dependent on the summer sale I think Mr Simonet's comment is disappointing and unfortunate.
Better to be more conservative with the language like some more seasoned retailers comments isn't it ! Something like this would seem to be more appropriate.
"Sales for the first 15 weeks provide encouragement but its too early in the season to give any indication of profitability for the first half".
No way HLG would have lead shareholders up the garden path like that is there...
His credibility has taken a hit at least in my eye's. So...leading on from that I can't help wondering, when is the oboz acquisition going to be eps accretive or even profitable ?...couldn't really get any handle on that from the annual report or the annual meeting transcript ? This seed of doubt about how this was handled puts the lack of transparency regarding the earnings of the Oboz acquisition into question. On the face of it the gross profit margin of 39.8% is well below that for the rest of the company's products and on only $15.7m sales I wonder how they worked out the purchase price of $US60m base price plus up to another $US15m earn out ?
This acquisition was stated to be expected to be mid single digit accretive to eps when the share placement was announced in March 2018 to fund it. One wonders why shareholders are not being told if this is profitable yet and if it is mid single digit earnings accretive to eps then why does it appear that eps growth is headed towards being negative ? Something doesn't seem to add up here ?
Don't think I'll go barking up this tree again anytime soon. Once bitten, twice shy !
Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 12:49 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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03-01-2019, 01:45 PM
#1219
Originally Posted by forest
Partially offsetting lower than expected sales to date for 1H FY2019, is a c. 60 bps improvement in retail gross margins to c. 64%.
I like this improvement in gross margins. Could have more influence on profit growth than the reduction in sales have on profit reduction.
On last years financials a 0.6% points increase in margin improves GM by ~$3m
On the other each 1% change in growth impacts GM by a bit more than $3m (+/-)
Reckon that’s why they used the words ‘partially offsets’
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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03-01-2019, 01:54 PM
#1220
Originally Posted by winner69
On last years financials a 0.6% points increase in margin improves GM by ~$3m
On the other each 1% change in growth impacts GM by a bit more than $3m (+/-)
Reckon that’s why they used the words ‘partially offsets’
Thanks Winner, I should have spend a bit more time analysing the results. Very disappointing this announcement.
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