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Thread: KMD - Kathmandu

  1. #1241
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Kmd share price still heading down ...216 as I post

    Long way from 275 before that recent announcement — is 12% enough punishment?

    Hard to believe the share price hit 346 not that long ago

    Xavier’s halo losing its gloss.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #1242
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Yeap..must admit I saw the opening match price was going to be $2.15 and was tempted having sold out at $2.65 a whopping 50 cents higher last week. Is a 50 cent drop enough punishment is the thought that crossed my mind ? Yeah...NAH...Xavier should have known to be a LOT more conservative with his choice of words, (played far to loosely with the term "strong growth") at the annual meeting update and I reckon he needs a bit more "seasoning" to be a really good CEO so that makes me wonder if whether he might have played far too loosely with shareholders capital with that shoe company acquisition ?

    The magic words that investors love to hear "eps accretive" were used in the capital raise but I'm not seeing it. I think the market is starting to wonder too... I think investors have reasonably long memories and will remember he has cried wolf on strong growth and looks set to deliver negative eps growth and I think that dogs the company going forward for quite some time, perhaps indefinitely until they do deliver strong eps growth ?
    A number of big name retailers got smashed on the NYSE last night...Target doing well though so I think value is always "on trend" which is not really what KMD is about is it..
    Last edited by Beagle; 11-01-2019 at 10:18 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #1243
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Profits are still *forecast* to grow ~5%
    I think the bet that they do hit that could be worth it at £2.

  4. #1244
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From above chart Kathmandu NZ sales up 1.4% since 2014 (cAGR +0.4% pa)

    Core Retail sales in NZ are up 24% in same period .....Clothing, footwear etc sector up 16%

    Sort of says Kathmandu in NZ are essentially losers .....fast sales in what has been pretty buoyant times.

    Makes you wonder eh.
    Somehow missed your post from last week. That really is a profoundly sad indictment on the Kathmandu brand isn't it !

    hardt - Yeah profit growth of ~ 5% but on ~7% more shares on issue due to the capital raise for Oboz acquisition, so eps contraction of ~ 2%. Last year's profit looking more and more like the cyclical peak...same for HLG. I think all the talk about using the oboz footprint as a launch pad for Kathmandu international expansion is something the market will want to see hard evidence of being eps accretive before this climbs out of the low $2's again. That could take years.

    PS I couldn't help go on the Reserve bank's inflation calculator and compare. KMD's N.Z. sales in 2014 of $141m with their 2018 N.Z. sales of $143m.
    This over a period of time when we've had record level's of new immigrants coming here and record rates of tourism but if KMD's sales had of just kept pace with inflation they should have been $147.64m in 2018, let along kept pace with population growth which has been as much as 2.1% per annum over those years https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...cid=spartandhp.
    If sasles had of kept pace with just one of those years population growth, (let alone 4 years of it) sales should have grown from $141m to just on $144m in one year not 4 years.

    Its very difficult to come to any other conclusion than that which suggests that KMD is a brand that's mature and in decline in its relevance in the market place in N.Z.
    Further, I am sure store rents have gone up by at least the inflation rate over the last few years and looking forward KMD will face very steep labour cost increases in the future with the minimum wage set to rise dramatically in the next 2 years.

    The recent arrival of the highly successful and much more attractively priced British chain of Mountain warehouse won't help future prospects either !
    www.mountainwarehouse.co.nz I've seen some of their sale prices first hand on a Ski trip in Queenstown last Sept and was blown away with the quality and prices of their ski jackets. $119 for a really good jacket is quite remarkable.
    Last edited by Beagle; 12-01-2019 at 01:03 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1245
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    Second that with Mountain Warehouse - looked like great bang for your buck. Won't get as many tourists in there store at Five Mile Frankton, as Katmandu in Central Queenstown, but located just by Kmart so will get plenty of locals going past.

  6. #1246
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Yep beagle Kathmandu almost a non-event in NZ .....flat sales last 4 years and declining profits. This is in spite of a few more stores and this much touted increase in online sales.

    Kathmandu sell twice as much (plus a bit) in Aussie than they do in NZ. All the recent profit growth has come from Australia.

    An investment in Kathmandu is essentially an investment in Australia retail ....that’s where Kathmandu fortunes lie and the recent announcement announcement said that wasn’t going too well at the moment.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1247
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Second that with Mountain Warehouse - looked like great bang for your buck. Won't get as many tourists in there store at Five Mile Frankton, as Katmandu in Central Queenstown, but located just by Kmart so will get plenty of locals going past.
    Mountain warehouse have a great well located store in central Queenstown too.
    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Yep beagle Kathmandu almost a non-event in NZ .....flat sales last 4 years and declining profits. This is in spite of a few more stores and this much touted increase in online sales.

    Kathmandu sell twice as much (plus a bit) in Aussie than they do in NZ. All the recent profit growth has come from Australia.

    An investment in Kathmandu is essentially an investment in Australia retail ....that’s where Kathmandu fortunes lie and the recent announcement announcement said that wasn’t going too well at the moment.
    Wonder if the collapsing house prices in Australia are starting to make a serious dent in consumer confidence yet or are they about too ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #1248
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Stuff I’ve bought from Mountain Warehouse in the UK has been crap .....wouldn’t want to go up the mountains in their gear.

    Still a nuisance to KThmandu though

    Nice store in Gretna Green though
    Last edited by winner69; 13-01-2019 at 02:29 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1249
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    The past 12 months, I've spent about $750 at Kathmandu. Doing whatever I can to help boost Kathmandu profits.

  10. #1250
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayRiggs View Post
    The past 12 months, I've spent about $750 at Kathmandu. Doing whatever I can to help boost Kathmandu profits.
    Good onya. Sorry folks. I pumped a grand into Macpacs coffers instead.

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