KMD - Kathmandu

[winner69]

This dude from Deutsche is my man -- increasing his valuation from 160 to 265 .... he is on to it but didn't have too many clues a few months ago ... obviously a man who goes with what he reads in the paper and has no belief in his own fantastic strategic thinking ... like if he believes KMD has a 'proven track record of opening stores' and that the 'store roll out is likely to provide a buffer for any potentialmacrooeconomic headwinds' why was it a hold at 160 ... should have been a raving buy. Must get my hands on the full report

Anyway with all these analyst upgardes the price should continue to go up .... eh

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1225991951417

ANALYSTS have upgraded or maintained their buy recommendation on outdoor clothing and camping retailer Kathmandu, which defied the retail downturn with a profit upgrade following strong sales over Christmas and New Year.

Deutsche Bank upgraded its recommendation from "hold' to "buy" and increased its price target from $NZ1.60 ($1.23) per share to $NZ2.65.

"Growth from Kathmandu's store rollout is likely to provide a buffer to any potential macroeconomic headwinds and rising cost pressures," it said.

"Kathmandu has a proven track record of opening stores and we are forecasting 15 new stores in each of 2011, 2012 and 2013. The risk here is cannibalisation, which reduced comparable store sales by 1.1 per cent in 2010," analyst Alexi Baker-McLennan said.

[macduffy]

RBS Australia ups its recommendation from Hold to Buy.



"KMD - KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED
RBS Australia rates KMD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) - The broker sees the main impact of the earthquake in New Zealand on the company being the distribution of stock, but it expects this will be resolved in coming days.
With insurance to cover the loss of profits and additional costs the broker has not made adjustments to earnings estimates. Recent share price weakness generates an upgrade to a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.74 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.24 If KMD meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July. RBS Australia forecasts a full year FY11 dividend of 7.02 cents and EPS of 13.26 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.32.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.8

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of N/A.Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 36.5%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources "

[macduffy]

Considering all the negative talk regarding KMD's IPO it's probably not surprising that no-one's commented on their unexpectedly good interim result, against the prevailing "retail" trend.

Inventories are much higher than a year earlier although net borrowings have been held around previous levels with the increase financed from operating cash flow. As usual, the winter season will determine the tone of the full year result.

Disc: No, I don't hold any either but will admit to spending over $300 this morning at the Summit Club Day before the "Easter escape sale" starting tomorrow.

[minimoke]

Considering all the negative talk regarding KMD's IPO it's probably not surprising that no-one's commented on their unexpectedly good interim result, against the prevailing "retail" trend.

I'm not sure what kind of comment is expected when SP (@$2.22) is now at the same level as the IPO one and a bit years later

[macduffy]

Well, for starters, that's a rather better performance than many of its peers, eg WHS, PPL and PPG's SPs are down between 17 and 32% over the same period. Not nearly as good as HLG of course who managed a decent increase, but I don't hold them either!

[minimoke]

Well, for starters, that's a rather better performance than many of its peers, eg WHS, PPL and PPG's SPs are down between 17 and 32% over the same period. Not nearly as good as HLG of course who managed a decent increase, but I don't hold them either!

Lets also look at the others. BRI up around $0.20, COL up $0.20, KRK up $0.20, MHI up $0.30, RBD up $0.5 and TUA up $0.30.

Going down was ECO (no surprise there) and RNS and SCY has done as well as KMD - gone nowhere.,

So I make that 7 up, 4 down and 3 nowhere. The KMD IPO now looks like a coin toss. Unfortunately for buyers it din't land right side up.

[percy]

Well, for starters, that's a rather better performance than many of its peers, eg WHS, PPL and PPG's SPs are down between 17 and 32% over the same period. Not nearly as good as HLG of course who managed a decent increase, but I don't hold them either!

Considering how tuff retail is,and the poor out look for retail I will be the first to admit surprise at how well they have done.In fact I can not figure out how they have achieved going against the tide. However, I retain the view that retail stocks are best avoided.As allways I am pleased to be proved wrong.

[macduffy]

Lets also look at the others. BRI up around $0.20, COL up $0.20, KRK up $0.20, MHI up $0.30, RBD up $0.5 and TUA up $0.30.

Going down was ECO (no surprise there) and RNS and SCY has done as well as KMD - gone nowhere.,

So I make that 7 up, 4 down and 3 nowhere. The KMD IPO now looks like a coin toss. Unfortunately for buyers it din't land right side up.

Well, I was looking at the (mainly) apparel-type retailers.

But pleased to have generated a bit of debate! The NZ threads in particular seem to have already gone into hibernation for the winter.

[minimoke]

The NZ threads in particular seem to have already gone into hibernation for the winter.

Talking of winter here's a prediction. KMD will go gang busters in Christchurch. Here you have tens of thousands of people with no heating and a dodgy electrical supply with hundreds if not thousands of workers coming in to fix things up. What is one thing they will need in the upcoming months - warm gear! Heres a chance for KMD to flog off all their thermals and wet weather gear

[percy]

Talking of winter here's a prediction. KMD will go gang busters in Christchurch. Here you have tens of thousands of people with no heating and a dodgy electrical supply with hundreds if not thousands of workers coming in to fix things up. What is one thing they will need in the upcoming months - warm gear! Heres a chance for KMD to flog off all their thermals and wet weather gear

Not just KMD.Any business still open is doing very well,in fact exceptionally well.!!! Except Whitcoulls !!!