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Thread: Kathmandu IPO

  1. #481
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    Oh dear .....H1 looks like a loss situation

    Bloody dry hot weather .....normalised profits allowing for weather would have been quite high.
    Last edited by winner69; 02-02-2015 at 10:25 AM.

  2. #482
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    I'm not sure 'disappointing' is the right word. My guess is that KMD will be going on sale today - 20 - 30% off. A further sale of 10-30% off already discounted prices will start tomorrow.

  3. #483
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    A whole lot more panic merchants reacting to what we already basically knew Disc-Holding not selling

  4. #484
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    My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... Roger 16 January
    Thank God for gut feel.

  5. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by noodles View Post

    Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.

    Cheers,
    noodles
    Only one more downgrade to go now.
    No advice here. Just banter. DYOR

  6. #486
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    A whole lot more panic merchants reacting to what we already basically knew Disc-Holding not selling
    With respect mate I don't think anyone knew for sure whether we'd be talking about a loss situation for the first half, I had my suspicions, see above post.
    Good gear but quite over-priced and very vulnerable to the ongoing groundswell of buying stuff on the internet. Also unless brand names offer quality and fair value I think customers are drifting more towards value products.

  7. #487
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    Don't think they ever lost money before.

    On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale

  8. #488
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Don't think they ever lost money before.

    On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale
    Goes to show mother nature holds all the trump cards we need a nasty winter to get things back on track.

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Don't think they ever lost money before.

    On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale
    Interesting commentary around gross margin's which appear to be under serious pressure...at a time when the Aussie and Kiwi dollars were quite strong ???. Both currencies have had a meaningful correction thus far in 2015 which won't help KMD with their margin going forward.

  10. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Goes to show mother nature holds all the trump cards we need a nasty winter to get things back on track.
    What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.

  11. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bilbo View Post
    What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.
    Hard to say Bilbo I mean when was the last time Briscoes didn't have between 20-60% of everything, its just one constant sale and its not hurting them,time will tell I guess.

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Oh dear .....H1 looks like a loss situation

    Bloody dry hot weather .....normalised profits allowing for weather would have been quite high.
    Yep Couta1 I'm pretty sure W69's comment was meant to be firmly tongue in cheek...along the lines of normalised win percentages for SKC.
    In my view apparel companies blaming the weather is wearing very thin as an excuse. Seasonal weather is NEVER perfect and stock mix and promotional campaigns should account for that. Still....if we get a really frigid winter we'll all be out buying Kathmandu jackets and it'll all come right...unless of course we get the usual warmer winter than normal due to ongoing global warming
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-02-2015 at 11:29 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bilbo View Post
    What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.
    I‘d agree with that, just walking past the Papanui store a few times a week, outside of sale time the patrons do consistently seem to be mostly those just off a plane and stocking up their campervans.

    The locals just wait for 80% off sales as at present, if they haven’t developed a natural caution. Such a wide ranged pricing model just seems to make folk a bit uncertain and jaded about what is really value and what is really quality.

    Perhaps a new CEO will turn it all around and provide better clarity as to what the target market really is.

    Are they a camping store for tourists, or are they are retail vendor of high end quality goods for New Zealanders and Australians.

    Can’t be both IMO, but there is room to split the brand and carve off stores near the airports and tourist trails under different branding.

  14. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hard to say Bilbo I mean when was the last time Briscoes didn't have between 20-60% of everything, its just one constant sale and its not hurting them,time will tell I guess.
    Huge difference.
    Briscoes' 20 to 60% off are off a realistic retail price,while Kathmandu's are totally unrealistic.

  15. #495
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hard to say Bilbo I mean when was the last time Briscoes didn't have between 20-60% of everything, its just one constant sale and its not hurting them,time will tell I guess.
    Even when I was a shareholder, I would never buy anything at full price and would treat Kathmandu sale prices as "normal trading" prices. I would feel a mug if I bought something that was not on sale. Even when sales were on, the shops seemed empty. I found I was buying minor items on sale near Christmas as stocking fillers. I thought the quality and design of items was good but as I was not buying them, I must admit I was not comfortable remaining a shareholder: I suppose more of a gut response as opposed to financial reasoning and analysis.

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