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Thread: KMD - Kathmandu

  1. #521
    Membaa
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    That's very true, a strong trend works best. You'll see on the KMD example I posted that a 'fake-out' in the Aug/Oct crosses would have cost at least the brokerage fees, which would be material for the big buyers/sellers, if not a capital loss in that particular case. That's why I suggested 'confirmation', meaning for example the RSI, Money Flow, %R and various other indicators (depending on speed of indication) really should be well into the overbought/sold zones.

    Anyway, I'm digressing from the action on KMD. What a mess! Looking forward to the fundamentals guys trying to figure out 'fair value'. Assuming this doesn't kill KMD, there will be some good buying in due course.

    Quote Originally Posted by bunter View Post
    just want to add that trading MA crosses isn't a guaranteed way to make money IMO.

    With a non-trending item, the 50 and 200MA lines will cross often and the trades will usually result in a loss each time.

  2. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Work just fine for me.
    That is because you tend to follow trending stocks rather than those that keep going up and down at the whim of day traders

  3. #523
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    Can you ta guys give us a good new trade instead of these hindsight ones?

  4. #524
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    On the chart there was a DEATH CROSS at $3.50 mid 2014

    KMD a perfect example of trading the big trends (Mr P loved those stocks) - like 150 odd to 400 and then selling on the DEATH CROSS at 350 and staying out until the big trend changes .... and heaven knows when that will be

    I reckon DEATH CROSSes are great
    Based on this, VML is looking particularly tasty right now...

    "Oh, the old grey mare, she ain't what she used to be, ain't what she used to be, ain't what she used to be."

  5. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by tim23 View Post
    Can you ta guys give us a good new trade instead of these hindsight ones?
    OK ...... Percy promises to remind you when KMD is fixed and a Golden Cross (from Star Wars couta) appears

  6. #526
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    What a mess! Looking forward to the fundamentals guys trying to figure out 'fair value'. Assuming this doesn't kill KMD, there will be some good buying in due course.
    It will a tough one for all to estimate now, who knows where forward margins and inventories are or will be, esp with 2HY earnings seasonally being double that of 1HY, double the guestimate error for analysts.

    Xavier doesn’t start as CEO until after his notice period is up with former company Radley too.

    And crumbs, I hope he likes challenges, still if he can turn KMD around he should be able to pick the next job practically anywhere, if he fails, well, folk will just say that a company that used to have 80% off sales was clearly only one backpack removed from a going out of business sale anyway.

    It will take a while for X to settle in and I don’t reckon the company will be in a position to offer any FY guidance whatsoever, it may unfortunately be for analysts and shareholder a highly speculative case of ‘wait and see’, oh yeah, and pray for a cold winter.

    I do hope for holders they can come back from this over time, there's all the potential in the world with the right business model and marketing strategy.

  7. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Yes, and easy to use as well, for timing long-holds/exits. See this for example, when the actual price is taken out and only the 50/200 SMA's are shown, the crosses are the trades. It does help to have confirmations, but otherwise pretty simple really isn't it. It makes 'buy and hold in spite of everything' seem a bit of an odd strategy.
    That chart would generate four long trades and four short ones (assuming short trades are possible) - plus a fifth short trade in progress.

    KMD looks like a reasonably favourable stock to trade, in retrospect, containing two big moves.

    I wonder though if those eight completed trades would actually have made any money. Seven of them look like losers or break-even (hard to say without the price line).

    There's a big short trade in progress which might make a difference. Who knows where that one will end.

  8. #528
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    Quote Originally Posted by tim23 View Post
    Can you ta guys give us a good new trade instead of these hindsight ones?
    Can you FA guys give us a solid forecast of revenue/profits/PEG ratio/EV for KMD in FY17? Thought so

    Point is, the charts first said "sell" because the cross, then the companies update said "sell" a few months ago. In this case TA came first, but it can definitely be the other way around! Point is, the market spoke: some of us listened to the first sign, some listened to the second sign, and some didn't listen at all!

  9. #529
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    Quote Originally Posted by tim23 View Post
    Can you ta guys give us a good new trade instead of these hindsight ones?
    1) SCL signalled on 15/1/15 at 1.45. It's on my FA 'permitted to buy' list. I took the signal and am still adding.

    Can't say if it is a 'good' trade though. They're all a gamble IMO.

    2) WBC.Ax just signalled, also on my FA list. Am adding.

    3) ANZ.AX looks like it might signal in the next few days - also permitted. I prefer WBC and consider these two stocks closely related - almost part of the same bet.

    4) RYM signalled on 9/1/15 at 8.48.
    On my do not buy list. Also the price has been weak since signalling.

    ETA: Signalled for me = simple MA50 crosses simple MA 200, using prices that are adjusted for dividends (by deducting the dividend amount after tax from all days' prices prior to the div)
    Last edited by bunter; 02-02-2015 at 07:37 PM.

  10. #530
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Death Crosses are good signal to stay out of a stock until things improve, esp on strong trending stocks.



    Sometimes there are multiple cross overs in a short [eriod of time ... as somebody says those times are when such things are pretty meaningless (unless you like short term trades but then you are probably concentrating 20/50 MA and other things)

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