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Thread: KMD - Kathmandu

  1. #781
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHunter View Post
    I think your logic has gone a bit back to front & then front to back here Mr Blizzard - the take over is too low so the share price will head down if it fails? Hmmm. If it doesnt go through - it must be perceived to be worth more.

    Think there are alot more factors playing on the current SP.
    Before the takeover the share price was drowning at the $1.30 end, what lifted it up was the takeover offer, if people perceived it to be worth more then it would not have gotten to that level in pricing in the first place. I'd say theres a split some think its worth more, some less. I'll leave it at that. Of course theres many factors doing a bit of suppressing from profit takers to the situation with Greece, but I'm not hopeful that things are better if the takeover is rejected.
    Last edited by silverblizzard888; 09-07-2015 at 02:04 PM.

  2. #782
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheHunter View Post
    I think your logic has gone a bit back to front & then front to back here Mr Blizzard - the take over is too low so the share price will head down if it fails? Hmmm. If it doesnt go through - it must be perceived to be worth more.

    Think there are alot more factors playing on the current SP.
    Indeed!

    Current market sentiment, for one!

  3. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverblizzard888 View Post
    Before the takeover the share price was drowning at the $1.30 end, what lifted it up was the takeover offer, if people perceived it to be worth more then it would not have gotten to that level in pricing in the first place. I'd say theres a split some think its worth more, some less. I'll leave it at that. Of course theres many factors doing a bit of suppressing from profit takers to the situation with Greece, but I'm not hopeful that things are better if the takeover is rejected.
    Your not hopeful?

  4. #784
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye View Post
    Your not hopeful?
    I sold out today to back ATM (I was gonna wait since I have done a bit of it already but thats just me being emotional), since I happen to have shares in 2 takeovers. I weighed up everything and considered I'd gain more benefit being with ATM and plus I'm not hopeful a deal will be done. I think KMD have really good long term value, but what I mean is short term wise I'm not hopeful its reflected in the share price the true value. Given I have many options to gain value its a matter of weighing up the ones that I find more beneficial overall. Its how I'm thinking anyway.

  5. #785
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    I understand.

    I have ATM and BGR and KMD shares, I only recently purchased KMD though. I intended to hold them longterm(or till I thought I should bail out as the sky fell in a worst case scenario) but I really like Rod Duke, and how he has transformed BGR and would like to see what he does with KMD, so im stuck wondering if I should take the offer and find out or hold out for a better offer that will never come leaving me to hope that the new CEO steps up and turns KMD around. This bitterly cold winter must be helping KMD though

  6. #786
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye View Post
    I understand.

    I have ATM and BGR and KMD shares, I only recently purchased KMD though. I intended to hold them longterm(or till I thought I should bail out as the sky fell in a worst case scenario) but I really like Rod Duke, and how he has transformed BGR and would like to see what he does with KMD, so im stuck wondering if I should take the offer and find out or hold out for a better offer that will never come leaving me to hope that the new CEO steps up and turns KMD around. This bitterly cold winter must be helping KMD though
    Fair enough then, I think Rod Duke is a good businessman; hes really done well with BGR and if the KMD takeover does go through then it will be wonderful opportunity for BGR expanding over to AUS, but thats a if it goes through. I see so many good senergies happening that I might consider dipping in later on in the future. Yes this winter will definitely have helped KMD so profitability will likely be better than what people expect. As I was explaining to a friend yesterday how to make a hard decision. Its usually best to weigh up your opportunity cost and then going with the decision that you feel will benefit you the most. You should always decide if your a short term or long term investor and go with that. Never regret the decisions you make, only learn and move forward.

  7. #787
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    Quote Originally Posted by pennyacw View Post
    One can only speculate, but I think the sell off is more of a reflection that the BGR offer is to low. Therefore, investors with a short-term focus are not wanting to hold.

    If you look at the cost of creating a company similar to Kathmandu and also its Earnings Power Value (EPV) with a concervative WACC of 15%, while also taking out any potential for growth, I still get a price at around $2.
    Pennyacw, always interested in others who use the EPV concept

    Getting $2 with WACC of 15% though implies you have a pretty high 'normalised earnings' figure

    I assume that also implies things that need fixing at Kathmandu are capable of getting fixed to the extent that 'normal' going forward is achievable?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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    At least the way the offer is structured if you believe the offer is too light you get to share in the upside if you keep your BGR shares

  9. #789
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    This infectious spreading across Aussie should help Kathmandu

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/cut-fa...10-gi8ct6.html
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #790
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    Global domination beckons

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...xavier-simonet

    An things all fixed ... as soon as the offer documents come through watch for that earnings upgrade .... maybe $35m this year
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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