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Thread: Kathmandu IPO

  1. #1201
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    So growth totally due to Auzzies and a bit from the US . can we trust the Auzzies to continue this growth..? Who are the Others..as there is already a column for rest of the world ... Maybe Dagobah?
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    Last edited by Yoda; 25-11-2018 at 10:23 PM.

  2. #1202
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    Yeah, this one got beaten with the ugly stick pretty hard in late 2018 along with most of the rest of the market but objectively you'd have to say the commentary out of the company has been in marked contrast to that forthcoming from HLG. Same store sales growth really impressed in Q1 at a time when petrol was at record high's so demand seems to be very sticky and growing.
    Company is clearly expecting strong profit growth this year and is on historical metrics of PE 11.5 and gross yield 7.6%.
    I'm not big on retail in a bearish market but have taken a small stake in this one which appears to have genuine momentum at a time when other retailers may be starting to struggle a bit.

    I suspect wealthy baby boomers will want to enjoy premium brand gear and experiences in the outdoors more and more as they head into their retirement years.
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-01-2019 at 03:13 PM.
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  3. #1203
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    This is promising from last update about Oboz - Remain on track to achieve the US$7.1m EBITDA earn-out target for the 2018 calendar year


    Sort of says going better than expected ....good one
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  4. #1204
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    I think bik that the best is not a recession, so this company can (and likely will) still be performant, but the SP might represent more of a bargain if the bear continues (which i suspect it won't claw us again until the next major event, which my pick will be something from china)

  5. #1205
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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/329075

    Very disappointing and difficult to understand. Same store sales growth for the first 15 weeks was up a whopping 7% in Australia and about 5% in N.Z. and that at a time when fuel prices were at record high's. Now we have what many retailers were saying was a boomer Boxing day sale but add another 7 weeks trading and same store sales are down, WTF ? Must have been a really, really tough late November / December other than Boxing day.

    Chalk that one up as my first investment disappointment for 2019...hope its not the first of many...

    What does this suggest, if anything, for HLG trading over recent weeks ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 10:14 AM.
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  6. #1206
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    Partially offsetting lower than expected sales to date for 1H FY2019, is a c. 60 bps improvement in retail gross margins to c. 64%.

    I like this improvement in gross margins. Could have more influence on profit growth than the reduction in sales have on profit reduction.

  7. #1207
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    https://www.marketscreener.com/KATHM...17/financials/

    Analysts are expecting an 11% increase in eps this year. A 4-8% increase in profit, (today's update) on a 7% higher weighted average number of shares on issue (last year weighted average shares on issue 211.261m, source annual report, currently 226.188m shares on issue) is likely to lead to low single digit eps contraction which is extremely disappointing after previous talk of strong growth. There is no way to sugar coat this, this trading update is a real shocker.

    Momentum must have fallen off the edge of a cliff with the last 7 weeks sales for it to drag the first 15 weeks strong sales growth down ! We saw what happened to HLG when they posted a more disappointing trading update so I am OUT and not waiting to see the carnage here.

    Very pleased I took just a very small opening position which I liquidated this morning at a small loss.
    KMD is also in my Share trader competition picks so I am not off to a good start in 2019.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 10:38 AM.
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  8. #1208
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    Didn’t take long for first earnings downgrade for the year on the NZX to come through ...and who would have thought it would be Kathmandu, and what a shocker it is

    Beagle — with 10% more shares probably lower eps (depending on how they fiddle the numbers) and jeez that includes extra from Oboz. Bit of a disaster eh

    What does Balance say now ....yes, downgrades come in threes (at least)
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

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  9. #1209
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    Xavier the optimistic

    “Despite sales being below expectation it is pleasing to see the improvement in retail gross margin and continuing strong growth from the recently acquired Obōz business.”

    Balancing sales growth and margins tricky and if your assume Oboz is actually making money the Kathmandu business isn’t increasing profits = they got that sales/pricing a bit wrong

    I’d expect prices (promotions) and margins to start declining from here
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  10. #1210
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Didn’t take long for first earnings downgrade for the year on the NZX to come through ...and who would have thought it would be Kathmandu, and what a shocker it is

    Beagle — with 10% more shares probably lower eps (depending on how they fiddle the numbers) and jeez that includes extra from Oboz. Bit of a disaster eh

    What does Balance say now ....yes, downgrades come in threes (at least)
    Yeah...real shocker mate. For 7 more weeks trading to drag the first 15 weeks that were up on average 6 % (NZ and Aust) down their latest sales results are a real shocker and does not auger well for the remainder of FY19. Last year's eps was 23.9 cps on weighted average shares on issue of 211.261m. I struggle to see them maintaining that eps now...which suggests this goes back to baseline support on the chart in the range of $2.20-$2.40 (PE 9.5-10), maybe even lower until they can prove they can restore eps growth. BIG nasty surprise to kick off the 2019 investment year.

    What does this suggest about other retailers November / December trading ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 10:52 AM.
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  11. #1211
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Didn’t take long for first earnings downgrade for the year on the NZX to come through ...and who would have thought it would be Kathmandu, and what a shocker it is

    Beagle — with 10% more shares probably lower eps (depending on how they fiddle the numbers) and jeez that includes extra from Oboz. Bit of a disaster eh

    What does Balance say now ....yes, downgrades come in threes (at least)
    Lost money in this stock a couple of years ago, I like and use their products for skiing but they are too reliant on good seasonal sales for me to ever be a shareholder again. PS-There is plenty of competition now in the winter market.

  12. #1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Lost money in this stock a couple of years ago, I like and use their products for skiing but they are too reliant on good seasonal sales for me to ever be a shareholder again. PS-There is plenty of competition now in the winter market.
    Sure is mate. Some of those jackets we saw at Queenstown were stupidly cheap at the mountain warehouse. https://www.mountainwarehouse.com/nz/
    Pleased to be out and shall retreat to my kennel and lick my wounds from this one.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-01-2019 at 11:07 AM.
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  13. #1213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    What does this suggest about other retailers November / December trading ?
    Lesson ..don’t believe all the hype in the media and these daily updates from Paymark. Makes good reading though and creates a bit of excitment eh
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  14. #1214
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    It was a great Christmas for a few retailers.Lucky to be up 5% plus.
    It was a modest Christmas for most.Lucky to be the same or minus 5% on last year.
    It was a very difficult for a lot of retailers.Minus 5% to minus 15%.
    KMD's business model has never appealed to me.Sale prices are what I would call normal retail.
    You can fool some people some of the time,but not all of the time.

  15. #1215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.marketscreener.com/KATHM...17/financials/

    Analysts are expecting an 11% increase in eps this year. A 4-8% increase in profit, (today's update) on a 7% higher weighted average number of shares on issue (last year weighted average shares on issue 211.261m, source annual report, currently 226.188m shares on issue) is likely to lead to low single digit eps contraction which is extremely disappointing after previous talk of strong growth. There is no way to sugar coat this, this trading update is a real shocker.

    Momentum must have fallen off the edge of a cliff with the last 7 weeks sales for it to drag the first 15 weeks strong sales growth down ! We saw what happened to HLG when they posted a more disappointing trading update so I am OUT and not waiting to see the carnage here.

    Very pleased I took just a very small opening position which I liquidated this morning at a small loss.
    KMD is also in my Share trader competition picks so I am not off to a good start in 2019.
    Oops, did not think about the dilution of shares. Bad results on second thoughts.

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