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Thread: Kathmandu IPO

  1. #1231
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Interesting that Kathmandu, Briscoe and Hallenstein Glassons always go on about challenging market conditions

    Over the last 4 years core retail sales (excludes vehicle related spend) have grown at just under 5% pa (Stats NZ)

    Wonder what word they’ll come up if things get really ‘challenging’
    Last edited by winner69; 05-01-2019 at 03:56 PM.
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  2. #1232
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    It's just a word, winner. Not fashionable to use words like "problematic", "difficult" or "disastrous" any more.


  3. #1233
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    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...-christmashtml

    Paymark data is not adjusted for inflation so in inflation adjusted terms sales for the Christmas period are probably down, (depending upon the inflation rate for calendar year 2018). Doubt its just KMD shareholders that will end up being disappointed with this...
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  4. #1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...-christmashtml

    Paymark data is not adjusted for inflation so in inflation adjusted terms sales for the Christmas period are probably down, (depending upon the inflation rate for calendar year 2018). Doubt its just KMD shareholders that will end up being disappointed with this...

    Auckland's stuffed eh ...going to bring the country down

    Even Barfoot and Thompson today admitted Auckland house prices are in decline
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  5. #1235
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    Beagle, being an accountant, can you explain to me why Auckland & Northland have 75% of electronic transactions but only 1/3 of sales ?? Is because you buy much cheaper Christmas presents and lots of lattes during shopping, or are we the good folk of Shane Jones' regions still using lots of cheques & cash (but they probably wouldn't show up in Paymarks numbers) ???
    Last edited by iceman; 07-01-2019 at 10:25 AM.

  6. #1236
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    LOL Iceman...have another read mate. I believe the 75% reference is a reference to the fact that Paymark process 75% of the countries electronic transactions and nothing to do with Aucklanders propensity to sip latte's
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  7. #1237
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Auckland's stuffed eh ...going to bring the country down

    Even Barfoot and Thompson today admitted Auckland house prices are in decline
    Tough times mate. I wonder how Aucklanders will feel not being able to tap into their house ATM money making machine any more ?
    I think the fancy boat dealers and luxury car retailers will be struggling !
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-01-2019 at 10:35 AM.
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  8. #1238
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    The sky is not falling. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12186577

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Auckland's stuffed eh ...going to bring the country down

    Even Barfoot and Thompson today admitted Auckland house prices are in decline
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Tough times mate. I wonder how Aucklanders will feel not being able to tap into their house ATM money making machine any more ?
    I think the fancy boat dealers and luxury car retailers will be struggling !
    You guys should use the winky face, unless you actually seriously believe what you both said.

  9. #1239
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    Sad fact is Baa Baa that a lot of Aucklanders have got used to making more money from their houses than from their jobs and quite a number of them have been drawing down on this increase by extending their mortgages and / or lengthy interest only periods on same. A lot of well healed people have seen their investments take a serious hit over the last few months too. That combined makes the likelihood of acquiring a discretionary high value consumer item at the moment far less likely than it would have been a year or two ago. No winky face because its the truth !
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-01-2019 at 01:31 PM.
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  10. #1240
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    Auckland started outperforming the rest of the country on the downside in the September quarter according to ASB

    Signs December quarter worse ....and maybe even heading into recession sometime in 2019

    https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/as...rd-Q3-2018.pdf
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  11. #1241
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    Kmd share price still heading down ...216 as I post

    Long way from 275 before that recent announcement — is 12% enough punishment?

    Hard to believe the share price hit 346 not that long ago

    Xavier’s halo losing its gloss.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

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  12. #1242
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    Yeap..must admit I saw the opening match price was going to be $2.15 and was tempted having sold out at $2.65 a whopping 50 cents higher last week. Is a 50 cent drop enough punishment is the thought that crossed my mind ? Yeah...NAH...Xavier should have known to be a LOT more conservative with his choice of words, (played far to loosely with the term "strong growth") at the annual meeting update and I reckon he needs a bit more "seasoning" to be a really good CEO so that makes me wonder if whether he might have played far too loosely with shareholders capital with that shoe company acquisition ?

    The magic words that investors love to hear "eps accretive" were used in the capital raise but I'm not seeing it. I think the market is starting to wonder too... I think investors have reasonably long memories and will remember he has cried wolf on strong growth and looks set to deliver negative eps growth and I think that dogs the company going forward for quite some time, perhaps indefinitely until they do deliver strong eps growth ?
    A number of big name retailers got smashed on the NYSE last night...Target doing well though so I think value is always "on trend" which is not really what KMD is about is it..
    Last edited by Beagle; 11-01-2019 at 10:18 AM.
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  13. #1243
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    Profits are still *forecast* to grow ~5%
    I think the bet that they do hit that could be worth it at £2.

  14. #1244
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    From above chart Kathmandu NZ sales up 1.4% since 2014 (cAGR +0.4% pa)

    Core Retail sales in NZ are up 24% in same period .....Clothing, footwear etc sector up 16%

    Sort of says Kathmandu in NZ are essentially losers .....fast sales in what has been pretty buoyant times.

    Makes you wonder eh.
    Somehow missed your post from last week. That really is a profoundly sad indictment on the Kathmandu brand isn't it !

    hardt - Yeah profit growth of ~ 5% but on ~7% more shares on issue due to the capital raise for Oboz acquisition, so eps contraction of ~ 2%. Last year's profit looking more and more like the cyclical peak...same for HLG. I think all the talk about using the oboz footprint as a launch pad for Kathmandu international expansion is something the market will want to see hard evidence of being eps accretive before this climbs out of the low $2's again. That could take years.

    PS I couldn't help go on the Reserve bank's inflation calculator and compare. KMD's N.Z. sales in 2014 of $141m with their 2018 N.Z. sales of $143m.
    This over a period of time when we've had record level's of new immigrants coming here and record rates of tourism but if KMD's sales had of just kept pace with inflation they should have been $147.64m in 2018, let along kept pace with population growth which has been as much as 2.1% per annum over those years https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...cid=spartandhp.
    If sasles had of kept pace with just one of those years population growth, (let alone 4 years of it) sales should have grown from $141m to just on $144m in one year not 4 years.

    Its very difficult to come to any other conclusion than that which suggests that KMD is a brand that's mature and in decline in its relevance in the market place in N.Z.
    Further, I am sure store rents have gone up by at least the inflation rate over the last few years and looking forward KMD will face very steep labour cost increases in the future with the minimum wage set to rise dramatically in the next 2 years.

    The recent arrival of the highly successful and much more attractively priced British chain of Mountain warehouse won't help future prospects either !
    www.mountainwarehouse.co.nz I've seen some of their sale prices first hand on a Ski trip in Queenstown last Sept and was blown away with the quality and prices of their ski jackets. $119 for a really good jacket is quite remarkable.
    Last edited by Beagle; 12-01-2019 at 01:03 PM.
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  15. #1245
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    Second that with Mountain Warehouse - looked like great bang for your buck. Won't get as many tourists in there store at Five Mile Frankton, as Katmandu in Central Queenstown, but located just by Kmart so will get plenty of locals going past.

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