Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Hoop]

"Get out" warning fired off yesterday with KST, last of the 4 necessary indicators to give the red arrow was triggered...KST only just triggered and being a day behind I'm not sure what todays S&P 500 bullish bounce off the critical 1775 support/trend double point will do to the KST indicator...

So with todays respecting the 1775 support...is it all good news?....urrr definitely a Yes with sounds of relief!!!! and.. maybe later a... no..

...........with reference to No!!!..the interesting scenario of correction indicator firing off warnings now at a time so close to a bullish continuing uptrend reinforces and increases the probability of that forming H&S pattern currently in progressl to keep forming to completion.....As of now the righthand neck has been formed at 1775....areas to watch is for any breakdown from now to around the 1810 1820/40 area if that happens, that is the completion of the right hand shoulder...if the rally continues then 1850+ is the next area to watch as the simple H&S pattern formation is deemed as broken down and disappears forever...a higher high signals an end to the correction and another rally should be expected to continue....

So ....Is my experimental indicator a "cry wolf" indicator?....I think not...it's proven itself now as a very good early warning correction indicator...it just happens that the recent corrections have been very shallow....
Increasingly shallow corrections breeds confidence and exuberance as more and more investors lose their fear and start take advantage of any drop to buy more thus creating increasingly shallow and smaller corrections ....a typical bull market last stage in the cycle signature....At this BMC last stage its no worries, its good times, future looks rosy, no need to fear making money is easy!!!........unfortunately it is at this stage when nearly everyone dismisses that all rising markets need breathers to stay healthy and investors start to ignore their disciplines and indicators as they are seen as failing to do their job..."this time it's different..eh????"

Rule No 1: if your reliable indicator triggers off, one should always respond to it..if its another shallow event, then no harm done... just get back in and treat the "get out, get back in" expense as an insurance policy...just remember the correction indicator will give you advanced warning of the "big one".



EDIT 1/02/2014: 30th January removed the doubt...On a bounce day as a relief rally raised the market off its Critical support (1775ish).. the KST break widened