Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 February 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 24 February 2012 market continues crawling cautiously up the 5 May 2011 price, adding a fresh multi-month High *1368.92 to the list.
Interestingly, the day's Close came in *1365.74, above the 5 May 2011 Open *1365.21, suggesting the market's determination to break the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 at least marginally at a minimum. Trading above the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 opens up potential to challenge the *1400 Psych barrier

VIX Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade below *18.00 is all for it

Institutional Selling Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
but the institutional selling up-trend suggests selling into strength

SPX 500 Cot Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
and the public investor appears to get cold feet with no one in sight to take the slack

...so far, liquidity keeps the market primed while the step up consolidation pattern wears off some of the extreme oversold condition. However, profit margins are geting more and more squeezed making an exposure into this market a high risk adventure unless a decent draw-down offers a more reasonable investment approach - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 March 2012

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...after the 29 February 2012 SPX 500 price action sets a new multi month intraday High *1378.04, price distributed down to an intraday Low *1363.81 just above the 17 February 2012 High *1363.40. After today, risk are high for the market to range trade down to the *1355/*1351 support range before testing current short term trendline resistance *1375 in the hourly frame. A rejection in that level and follow through downside that violates the *1355/*1351 support range will set the index up for a 19 January 2012 High *1315.49 challenge

...portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Dear Reader,

due to increasing workloads, unable to continue updating the website. Thank You for Your patronage

Best wishes and Kind Regards

[Hoop]

A77
Wish you all the best and hope to see you back sometime in the future
cheers Hoop

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 March 2012-

COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...commercial traders at inflection point:

-if they commit to higher prices ahead, their strategy will show an accumulation of puts to be maximum short positioned at a future market top
-if they commit to lower prices ahead, their strategy will show an accumulation of calls to be maximum long positioned at a future market bottom
-a consolidation period may be proceeding the final direction

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 March 2012-

COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the Nasdaq 100 picture perfect of a large hedged commercial position signalling high risk, everyone else will be going to the chopping block

-go long at your own peril here-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 April 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the teaser market up continues with no one in sight to sell to - no substantial corrective sell-off as cash get shuffled around from one market into the other - providing excellent trading opportunities in the short term frame

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 April 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...accumulating long positions below *1400 (-)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 April 2012-

-COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
as expected, commercials reducing the fully hedged short position into a sell-down with large traders selling
COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-interestingly enough, large traders moving out of the Nasdaq and appear accumulating into the SPX 500 at the same time, since the public can not be taken to the chopping block

...as a result, although the market has set an interim Top *1422.38 on 2 April 2012, until the public will be teased back into the market, it is very unlikely the current advance has come to an early end

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...todays SPX 500 market supported at the 29 February High *1378.04 coinciding with trendline support drawn off the the 4 October 2011 Low *1115.68 and confirmed with the 25 November 2011 Low*1158.66 - short term frame very oversold justifying a long trade or careful long accumulation off the *1378 area - however risks are, the market wants to test its 50-dsma current *1371.33, just a stroll away, and coinciding with the 13 March 2012 accumulation market Low *1371.92 - no demand at this level and a correction appears inevitable with high risks of selling-off to the *1300

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Quote from Post #1186 24 Feb 2012

Ananda quote..."...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%..."

I agree...S&P 500 closed on it's 1363 resistance line. Risk v Reward shows far too much risk. Chart formation rising wedge is bearish. Most commentators/investors are too bullish and too complacent (low VIX 16.8).....that indicates most are already "in the market" reducing the amount of future buyers in the short term future (bearish).

Updated Chart from that one at the top of this thread page
closed 1359 broken its 1363 support
The S&P 500 cyclic Bull has been wandering the Secular Graveyard so it wouldn't surprise me if it has died.....

Testing and rebounding off its 1310 TA target would suggest that the index is recovering from a bull market correction and all is well
Breaking the 1310 would send a warning that the cyclic bull could be sick