Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[dumbass]

i am currently trading from the short side on the sp500, closed 2x short positions (+60 SPX points ) on friday as im expecting a rally from current oversold levels , this should provide an excellent short entry next week.

price should not exceed 1400 so will look for a good short entry below this level with a target around 1320 , its a C wave so should be swift and violent.

The market showing resilience in the face of adversity at present.

holding shorts from 1364 and will maintain a target around 1320 area. europe is selling any rallies and the us is buying dips , when this resolves

i think this market is going rally to new highs , so starting to think long entry position build around 1320 - 1340.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data ppoint 15 May 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market now closing in on the lower range of the support band with the index nearing extreme oversold in the daily frame - besides, the rainbow financial press are getting hot on Europe disasters and fanfaring bearish overtones to herd everyone to short the market

...time to collect on the long side -the trend is your friend only for so long amigo-

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

i am currently trading from the short side on the sp500, closed 2x short positions (+60 SPX points ) on friday as im expecting a rally from current oversold levels , this should provide an excellent short entry next week.

price should not exceed 1400 so will look for a good short entry below this level with a target around 1320 , its a C wave so should be swift and violent.

holding shorts from 1364 currently 1330 heading into potential reversal zone around 1320 area where i will exit shorts.

i am now starting to think long entry and as i have picked up a lot of points on the way down i can afford an agressive entry.

this could be a multi month long to new highs.

[Entrep]

Busted right through 1320 - whats your thoughts dumbass?

SPI looking even worse!

[dumbass]

hi entrep , targets hit over night on shorts , i anticipated we see a bottoming process around 1320 , there was heavy fib clusters
around this area, to see no bounce at all with a gap open suggests we are moving down to 1290 if this area does not hold then
my desire to long would be reviewed. hope this helps.

[Hoop]

Quote from Post #1186 24 Feb 2012


Updated Chart from that one at the top of this thread page
closed 1359 broken its 1363 support
The S&P 500 cyclic Bull has been wandering the Secular Graveyard so it wouldn't surprise me if it has died.....

Testing and rebounding off its 1310 TA target would suggest that the index is recovering from a bull market correction and all is well
Breaking the 1310 would send a warning that the cyclic bull could be sick

This present downtrend (correction?) on the S&P500 came as no surprise to TA people. The commentary on this thread became increasingly negative back in February.

I posted that updated chart on 11th April...It is still amazingly relevant 36 days later... That chart was a snapshot which outlined the near future expectancy of the investor group at that precise moment in time...the chart still being relevant 36 days later indicates that the S&P500 is experiencing a systematic orderly sell down with no panic and no surprises....everything is still going according to plan...so far!!

This "orderly/ still going according to plan" correction drop so far also suggests that perhaps this present day Greek/French media frenzy event was one of the many variables already factored in the market as a near certainty back then in February..

TA is made up of diverse discipline groups. Dumbass and Ananda have different disciplines to me, 1320 was on their radar (actually the wave shows either 1321 or 1310,,doesn't it??)...on my radar (36 days ago chart) was a 70% chance that the TA target 1310 would be reached, with a rapid drop in % chance going lower than that S&R area just under that 1310 level and another big % chance drop below that 1285 support area....so using 11th April chart the risk of S&P500 falling below that 1308ish area was low.

Theoretically, atm, this "orderly" market should be perceiving that 1300 area as the bottom for the time being because disciplined buying would recommence and raise the index again.

36 days later the variables on my old chart (above) have obviously altered... If this 1300-1310 area that we are at is breached that chances the index falling to 1285 would be very high, but below that 1285 there are a number of S&R areas so the risk of another large percentage fall is still very low.

Also an investor should take in historical facts......A bull market correction can be up to 20% but its usually around that rule of thumb 10% area ....1420 - (1420 x 10%) = 1278

Most disciplines are concurring around that 1320 /1310 area (including the contrarions who suggest a less than 10% correction) So chances are we are near or at the bottom

EDIT:- The DOW has a TA Target of 12100 (Post #842 DOW thread) chances may be lower than 70% in this case as there is a strong support area around the 12240. Presently at 12442 so just less than 2% drop to reach that support area...(possible bottom??)..This 2% further drop would relate to 1280ish for the S&P500 close to the 1285 support area

Another feasible scenario is a continued downtrend of another 3% to that DOW TA 12100 target area....this would relate to a 3% fall on the S&P500 index to 1264 which happens to be another big support area.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 May 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market broke out of the *1340/*1320 support zone making its way towards its 200-dsma (still rising but in danger of levelling out and turning down) current *1278.04 - the market needs to hold the range above the 200-dsma and consolidate with a rise back into the green support zone on a Close basis in order to set the first signal of a potential end to the downside.


VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX finally broke out of its 5-mnth old trading range heading towards its 200-dsma (still sloping down) but in danger of levelling out and rising. The market is at inflection point and need to consolidate below the 200-dsma and close inside the trading range to set a more positive tone in the market.

...accumulate on the long side with responsible stops in the 200-dsma approximity.

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Hussman says another 25% to 35% to come .......he says 'As for my opinion about market conditions, I have to agree with Richard Russell, who said last week "I think we're now in the second half of the primary bear market that started back in 2007. It won't be pretty." '
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120521.htm

A bit of DOW theory included as well

[dumbass]

hi entrep , targets hit over night on shorts , i anticipated we see a bottoming process around 1320 , there was heavy fib clusters
around this area, to see no bounce at all with a gap open suggests we are moving down to 1290 if this area does not hold then
my desire to long would be reviewed. hope this helps.

reversal at 1290 nailed entered long 2 positions , its a little early to say if this is the bottom of the downtrend but looks promising so far.

needs to clear 1360 pivot to give complete confidence in long position.

im going to run this as a long term trade into the 1500's.

[Entrep]

Thanks again for the new update dumbass. TBH found myself a little overexposed on this pull-back/correct/whatever it is and your analysis is reassuring (I am bullish too).

Cheers