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[QUOTE=Phaedrus;281252]...Confused by a plethora of arcane charts?
More can be less.
Here is a Market Overview for simple unsophisticated people like me :-
QUOTE]
...thanks for the chart update -appreciated-
...but in the future, could you just cut the judgemental crap and get on with posting charts?
Kind Regards
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[QUOTE=ananda77;281270]
 Originally Posted by Phaedrus
...Confused by a plethora of arcane charts?
More can be less.
Here is a Market Overview for simple unsophisticated people like me :-
QUOTE]
...thanks for the chart update -appreciated-
...but in the future, could you just cut the judgemental crap and get on with posting charts?
Kind Regards
I totally disagree with your comment Ananda. Phaedrus is making a great point. I also don't see it as judgmental.
Last edited by Corporate; 11-11-2009 at 01:07 PM.
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[QUOTE=Corporate;281286]
Originally Posted by ananda77
I totally disagree with your comment Ananda. Phaedrus is making a great point. I also don't see it as judgmental.
...and so you may... and as far as the view of this thread is concerned Phaedrus posting his chart does make an excellent contribution; but 'being sophisticated' as in opposition to 'being unsophisticated' is a judgemental (emotional) statement relating to a given object, in this instance, the chart; and seeing anything personal in it (which I do not) may be my own perception; I was more concerned, that a person like Phaedrus needs to retort to using a phrase like 'unsophistcated like me' to get whatever point across
Originally Posted by karlos
You obviously spend a great deal of time Ananda 77 constructing your posts. All your time spent is no doubt appreciated by a number of folks. Myself I find Phaedrus posts quick and easy to understand, I do not think he is having a dig at you personally 
...and so it obviously makes sense to visit this thread to see Phaedrus's chart expressing his take on the SPX 500, if Phaedrus decides to continue to post his charts (I hope and would look forward to his point of view)
...other people may be intrigued by arco's posting expressing his view on the SPX 500 based on the Ichimoku system; I really do look forward to his point of view
...and Hoop with his excellent charting knowledge expressing his view on the SPX 500 based on Dow Theory etc; I really do look forward to his point of view
...I think it is worthwhile keeping a thread going where Hopefully now 3 people (including Phaedrus) -not to forget the Invetrics and Stocktiming contribution- are making valuable contributions to the thread -again Hopefully as often as possible
...also would appreciate a 'CYCLIC' take on the SPX 500 -definitely an exciting expectation; and as far as my information in this regard goes, the cycle people predict a 2 to 3 month up-cycle at least on the NZ Market
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 11-11-2009 at 06:23 PM.
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Last edited by ananda77; 12-11-2009 at 08:42 AM.
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Member
6 days of advances. Am short for tonight as I think there will be a lot of profit taking today. Just get that impression from reading the main news sites and the behaviour of the Asian markets. Have already sold the dow from 10300. No chart support for this just a gut feeling.
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http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 12 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 11 October 2009-
...testing the line continues
http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 11 November 2009-
 ...Institutional Core Holdings
 ...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels  ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows  ...NYSE Momentum and Strength  ...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
US Economic Calendar -data point 12 November 2009-
>US Initial Claims Nov: actual 502K (forecast 525K) (consensus 510) (prior 512K)
>US Continuing Claims Oct: actual 5631K (forecast 5700K) (consensus 5700K) (prior 5749)
>US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov: +3.2% refis +11.3% purchases -11.7%
>US Treasury Budget Oct: actual----- (forecast -150.0B) (consensus -162.5B) (prior -155.5B)
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 12 November 2009-
...the 2007/2009 Bear Line had been punctured yesterday but as expected in a first test, the market quickly started into what appears to turn into a corrective retreat today; the SPX 500 appears to tiptoe its way down to test the *1084 Congestion range but without damaging bullish sentiment as the market remains within a neutral trading sentiment for now;
…a successful defense in that range should trigger another rally that could carry the index to the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 break-point *1122 via the Sept 30 2008 Low *1107
......failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initiallyand a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869
SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 12 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT- 
> before market open: ...after yesterdays trading session ending with a strong Close *1099, the expected retracement to briefly test the *1084 (+) range seems to be underway in the SPX 500 futures trade -again-
...a successful defense seems likely at this juncture since institutions reduced their selling action substantially over the last few days coupled with continuous liquidity inflows into the market;
...in the meantime, the SPX 500 has played catch up with the Dow yet the Nasdaq still lagging the advancing Dow
current position update: 'short tilt' > short SPX 500 *1100 / long Russ2000 *593
 >after Market open
current position update: unchanged
Market Commentary -data point 12 November 2009-
 Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut: Manifestly, we have argued that with credit spreads below their pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels there should be no reason why the equity markets can’t “fill up” the downside vacuum created in the charts by said bankruptcy. As can be seen in the following chart, that gives the S&P 500 an upside target of 1200 – 1250. If correct, it implies that the cash rich, underinvested portfolio managers (PMs) will once again be forced to chase stocks higher. Our guess is the PMs will chase the “winners” since the March lows rather than buying the laggards. That suggests investments in emerging and frontier markets, technology, financials, base/precious metals, etc. should trade higher if the aforementioned scenario plays.
Long Term: THE BEAR ...facing a monster
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 13-11-2009 at 07:53 AM.
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http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 13 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 12 October 2009-
...testing the line continues
http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 12 November 2009-
 ...Institutional Core Holdings
 ...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels  ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ...NYSE Momentum and Strength   ...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
US Economic Calendar -data point 13 November 2009-
>USTrade Balance Sep: actual -36.5B (forecast -$30.0B) (consensus -$31.8B) (prior -$30.7B)
>US Mich Sentiment-Prel Nov: actual 66 (forecast 70.5) (consensus 71.0) (prior 70.6)
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 13 November 2009-
...after an initial brisk shake-out, the SPX 500 is on its way higher on bullish internals after successfully affirming support *1085
…the current up-move should carry the index to the Sept 30 2008 Low *1107 at a minimum possible and likely higher to the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 break-point *1122 within the next few days, but no doubt, the 50% Fibonacci a formidable ceiling
......failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initiallyand a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869
SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 13 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT- ...yesterday's SPX 500 trading session ended bearish but volume has been very low and the index managed to create New Highs throughout the session, two facts most likely indicating dip-buying; furthermore, although institutional selling remains in an up-trend, they have slightly moved into accumulation and as a consequence, the potential for the SPX 500 to reach *1122 remains in play; the index also bounced off a session Low *1085 as expected
...headwinds are the lagging SPX 500 and Nasdaq still trading below the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break and a negative divergence out of China where the Shanghai 180 lagging is the Shanghai Composite a 'tail wags the dog' situation; furthermore, the USD bounced off support
...overall the market seems to be rather neutral with still an up-potential, but if the headwinds persist longer, a deeper correction as outlined could be on the horizon
...the Hedge Chart  shows a tentative SPX 500 Top *1105 and the up-trend line horizontal which translates into a neutral position
> before market open: current position update: neutral with downside cover
>after Market open current position update: long intra-day trade Russ2000 *583.4 - *587.6; Cash for weekend with downside cover
Market Commentary -data point 13 November 2009-
David Rosenberg: SHORTS STILL BEING COVERED https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Article...ave_111209.pdf ...When looking for where the buying power for U.S. equities has been coming from, there have been three primary sources.
1. Hedge funds who have had their margin lines re-established this year.
2. Equity portfolio managers taking cash ratios back down to late -2007 levels.
3. And short covering, which seems to be ongoing as short funds try and reverse at least part of the average 31.5% loss suffered this year. So what we just saw — a 3.24% plunge in short interest on the Big Board through the last half of October goes a long way towards explaining this latest move in the major averages to new post-crisis highs.
Long Term: THE BEAR...facing a monster
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 14-11-2009 at 07:39 AM.
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This story says the party is over .... even mentions we are back to times of Enron and Worldcom etc to keep the market bubbling along ... we never learn
http://au.us.biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/...9_id.html?.v=1
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Last edited by ananda77; 17-11-2009 at 07:48 AM.
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Last edited by ananda77; 18-11-2009 at 07:42 AM.
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...Institutional Core Holdings 
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels 
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows 
...NYSE Momentum and Strength 
...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
...the SPX 500 A_D line flashed a 'buy' *1073 resulting in an increase in equtiy exposure; as a result, trading below *1071 (at the very latest) would signal a 'short' hedge position to protect equity exposure 
...Institutional Core Holdings 
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels 
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows 
...NYSE Momentum and Strength 
...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
tracking higher in the current up-trend but
indicates !Caution! because markets are most prone to reversal when readings > 1.0 no longer are associated with fresh price highs (Brett Steenbarger) -data point 14 November 2009-
...Institutional Core Holdings 
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels 
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows 
...NYSE Momentum and Strength 
...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
which traded to its lowest point since August 2008 and appears to be quite oversold at this stage; the direction of the dollar break-out will be crucial for equity positioning
…in the same way the USD has room for another spike lower, the SPX 500 index has room for another spike higher, especially as volume accumulated around the *1108/*1109 level yesterday but another up-move is far from certain; 
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