Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

**Hoop** · 08-04-2013, 01:01 PM

All arrows on the NYA200r 5th April chart are now red...Still no S&P500 chart breaks....(Post #1333).... The KST indicator is just marginally red (still indecisive) I have factored in the rule of clear decisive breaks before signaling a possible correction (reversal)...This very simple experimental method I use has had just one failure so far (~90% accuracy).

...It's still a caution but at a heightened level.
The MA50/1530 support cards is now the only cards holding up the house (of cards)

**Hoop** · 08-04-2013, 08:16 PM

Originally Posted by belgarion

Bottoming process Hoop ... Them bond holders are getting just a tad more nervous and have started diversifying ...

Yep...

I have added DR Copper as it has signaled that the world major economies could be turning to crap ....

**winner69** · 15-04-2013, 04:35 PM

A guru called Sornette has a thing called a “log-periodic bubble” which arrives after a series of increasingly frequent but shallower dips, ending in a nearly uncorrected upward ramp in which virtually every dip is purchased as soon as it emerges. (fancy way of saying the dips bit the opportunities come quite frequently)

Here's the current state of the S&P

**winner69** · 15-04-2013, 04:43 PM

Here is what happened to the DIJA when it experienced a Sornette bubble a few years ago

Predicted recent collapses in the price of oil and gold as well .... more pretty pictures
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130415.htm

**Hoop** · 17-04-2013, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by Hoop

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Still in Warning caution stage.

My post post 8th March) showed 2 red out of 3... we waited for the 3rd shoe to drop and when it did the other two red indicators turned blue then red and orange (neutral)
As of the 28th March the Warning bells of 3 clear red arrow breaks still haven't appeared together....Note: It may be showing the edge of the cliff stuff on the NYA200r..yet
the S&P Chart is showing no signs of reversals nor break downs.......Hmmmm .interesting!!!

Yesterdays steepest drop of the year failed to break down any technicals on the SR500 My accompanying % of companys above the New York 200 moving average index indicators still show 2 out three clear breaks...
For six weeks now this methodology has been showing a CAUTION warning but still no indication of a S&P 500 reversal yet.

**Hoop** · 18-04-2013, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by Hoop

Yesterdays steepest drop of the year failed to break down any technicals on the SR500 My accompanying % of companys above the New York 200 moving average index indicators still show 2 out three clear breaks...
For six weeks now this methodology has been showing a CAUTION warning but still no indication of a S&P 500 reversal yet.

Another drop today to close at 1552 (-1.43%)

Still no technical breaks... so no sirens going off yet atm...just increasing degree of caution.

My accompanying % of companies above the New York 200 moving average index indicators still show 2 out three clear breaks (red)...but the third is turning red without a clear break....just the S&P500 MA50 indicator left to confirm the Warning System and it is still blue (turns red at 1540)...
Getting closer to the edge of the cliff though.....a drop to under 1540 may trigger the technical sell signals and turn my system totally red. Under 1530 it will definitely set off the sirens to "get the hell outa there".

**Hoop** · 18-04-2013, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by belgarion

But why would this happen, Hoop? ... I can't find anything new (or getting worse) from what's been well known for at least 12 months.

I think this is a combination of a bunch of minor factors (profit taking, May, NK, Europe, Japan, Boston, etc.) that is causing the weakness ... Just can't find anything significant (at present) to stop the bull.

The one thing that could upset things is a full blown round of "beggar-my-neighbour" currency devaluations ... ala Global QE.

Makes me think I'm missing something ... (clearly I am if all signals go red!) ...

The NYA200r indicator I'm using is known as a sentiment indicator... Sure nothing much has changed in USA in 12 months the business cycle is still booming ahead but the Equity bull cycle has breathers when the market runs ahead of itself and becomes temporarily overvalued which usually results in av10% bull market corrections every now and then..10% does hurt and if an reasonably accurate warning system can be found it would add to investors profit efficiency and lowers investor risk immensely.....

Whether this time it could be a cycle change or just another bull market correction I can't say...however using other secular disciplines/law of averages it would seem that the odds of a cycle change is getting rather high as the cyclic bull is 4years old and as the cyclic bull lifespan averages 3.8 years it can considered it is on bonus time now.. extreme old age can be 6 to 7 years but that is extremely rare and more rare if not impossible when there are secular bear pressures at work as well...

On a more FA approach...markets are more forward looking...investor anticipation on what is going to happen in 6 months time usually effects the "now".
A good article arrived in my email this morning..Titled .."Are earnings Expectations Realistic..courtesy of John Mauldin's investorinsight If you are not a subscriber you may not be able to read all of it....can join for free...well worth the finger exercise. Even though earnings may rise to more record breaking heights its slow down from the unsustainable growth rate may be disappointing to what the investors are anticipating now.
Also you have the sharemarket physics to deal with....fussier investors chasing high yields lowering the Av PE Ratio the threat of an ending of QE thereby increasing the strength of other financial competitors resulting in the decreasing the amount of available money investors are willing to invest with in Equities..Investors more adverse to accept more debt due to low inflation levels and psychological niggling of possible deflation issues.....etc...etc

**winner69** · 19-04-2013, 02:11 PM

Hoop one thing that struck me in that article you linked was the table that showed earnings etc 4Q earnings (over the S&P500) were only up 0.4% on the previous year .... and the forecast earnings for 1Q13 are DOWN 2.3% on pcp

So its all how things go against 'consensus' eh .... so it all a big con game eh