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  1. #1141
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Jeez, useful article. Much appreciate the re-post.
    Hussman is huge...he's a legend
    Back in 2007 Winner noticed I was interested in long term cycles we both sensed a market change for the worst but Winner must have thought I was in need of some serious guidance..having read some of my earlier posts lately I realise now (but not then) he was right ...Back then Winner introduced me to some very valuable websites which included some material that was so heavy it took me about a hour to read one page ..I then realised I was on a steep learning curve

    Hussman was on Winners list and it was a relief to read his articles they was clear and even with my small brain I was able to comprehend what he felt...It is amazes me how great experts can make things seem so easy to understand.

    I still have that same article bookmarked that Winner PMed to me back in December 2007..

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071210.htm

    Remember that Hussman wrote this article before the sh1t hit the fan ...the S&P500 had just came off its record high back in Early December 2007 and everyone was exuberant and expected the S&P 500 to crack the 2000 mark...there was a small scattering of permabears that were making noises as they always do,,.Hussman is not a permabear but black financial clouds were on the horizon and he knew what was causing them and the massive damage that could happen.

    Hussman is again firing out warnings...
    Last edited by Hoop; 23-04-2013 at 11:22 PM.

  2. #1142
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    The market is really efficient these days .... reacts to news instantly ... even the computers show emotion

    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/securit...424-2idbc.html

  3. #1143
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    OMG our friend Hussman quotes this guy Albert Edwards at SocGen "is not optimistic. Last week, he reiterated his concern that the S&P 500 would ultimately establish a low at 450" Yes 450 .... not 1450

    Jeez some people talk a load of crap .... but then again, just maybe, he could be right

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130429.htm

  4. #1144
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    OMG our friend Hussman quotes this guy Albert Edwards at SocGen "is not optimistic. Last week, he reiterated his concern that the S&P 500 would ultimately establish a low at 450" Yes 450 .... not 1450

    Jeez some people talk a load of crap .... but then again, just maybe, he could be right

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130429.htm
    I think the important thing to take from this article is the fact they agree that in the longer term it's possible that high company earnings are not the primary driver in the PE Ratio its the PE Ratio as a whole that is the primary driver in the Share market. There is a misconception amongst investors that increased earnings would automatically increases the share price and the S&P index..it is true in the short term but in the longer term is not always true as the author portrayed by fiddling around with the PE Ratio equation.. other secular factors are at work such as investor sentiments.

    110/450 = PE 4.1..S&P 500 crash from 1600 to 450 seems a drop too far..The only couple of scenarios that I can think off for company earnings to hold at near record highs and a crash to 450 would either be a major governmental systemic crisis or a sudden jump to high inflation or both.
    Using past experiences up to todays perception I find it very hard to imagine a 450 S&P index....

    However you just don't know what the future holds.

    If you in January 2008 walked in to Greek Stock investment company looking for a job ...And they asked you what do you think will happen to the Stock market in the next 5 years and you replied that the ASE is going to crash from over 5000 to 600 and only recover to about 1000 by that time frame....Would you think they would give you the job...HELL NO!!!!!!!!!
    Last edited by Hoop; 30-04-2013 at 09:56 AM.

  5. #1145
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    Update from the 28 March 2013 charts... Post 1333

    As the Warning never fired off I hadn't posted.
    However with this enthusiasm of a rising of the S&P 500 index which seems to defy any bad news atm ,,it seems a few commentators think it's now bullet proof and it will keep rising ,,while the other camp think a disaster is waiting around the corner....It seems the media like the drama of up or down but not the go nowhere scenario...too boring ..eh?

    Well technically from my sentiment indicators it been all drama and suspense...The S&P 500 for the last couple of months has been at the top of a cliff threatening to jump off it....In the middle of April It looked like this was going to be it with 10 toes over the edge but it decided to take one step back (FAIL) and that is where we are at atm.

    so it is still a Warning Caution..no clear 3 breaks (red arrows) on the NYA200r chart and no MA50 break (red arrow) on the S&P 500 chart.


    Last edited by Hoop; 30-04-2013 at 09:52 AM.

  6. #1146
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Hoop, as a very amateur technician I thought I might share this link with you

    http://www.moneysense.ca/2010/02/09/...he-next-crash/

    The guy at the post says the 125MA/365MA is a useful indicator of predicting crashes.

    Now, I haven't the foggiest idea whether he is right or not about "crashes", but it is very interesting to note that using the above shorter 125 day chart lines, the maximum gap for the DJIA over the 125EMA has been about 1000, and about 1100 for the 125MA (just the simple moving average) . After that, we seem to get some corrections, as has indeed happened since 2010 on regular occurrences.

    At the moment, we are around 850 over the 125EMA and around 1050 for the 125 day simple moving average.

    Do you read much into the moving averages for the indices like this? I have chosen the Dow, because it seems to me that if there is a bigger correction coming, it will probably start there first.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%...rce=undefined;
    There are a lot of interesting things that happen on a chart which as an investor you might not pick instinctively...Sparky I think you can see how some people start charting as a hobby being an amateur sleuth playing around manipulating indicators to find predictive patterns, and occasionally you do find something and you get a real buzz out of it ...can become rather adictive.
    I had a look at your chart Sparky..not sure if I could handle the time period about the gap showing the next correction as you could waiting a month or two and miss out on the continuing uptrend before the correction...also like most indicators it is prone to bull and bear traps..however I did find something exciting when using the charts time slider... . The maximum gap occurred repeatably during the first 4 months of each year when the DOW was in a bull market cycle....so your chart can predict with some confidence that the sma125 and ema125 will start closing the gap with the DOW index starting next month as the DOW is again in a Bull market cycle...this could be a useful confirmation indicator.
    .
    I had a look at the MA125 MA365 crossings as shown in Money sense.....MA crossovers are well known to chartists and different period manipulation to suit certain share behaviours can work extremely well...Some years back I think it was Footsie?? used MA crossovers with great results ...However 125/365 seems too long a period, the time lag would be its disadvantage...On the chart I made I compared it to the lagging Coppock indicator and the 125/365 was slower than Coppock to respond so you would know the bull was around before the 125/365 crossover would trigger the alert...The 125/365 was quicker at indicating end of Bull cycle than the end of Bear cycles...Coppock was not designed to signal end of bull cycles.

    The quicker the warning the better the indicator my NYA200r sentiment indicator is very quick with the crashes (about 2 days before it happens) but too late with the recovery reversals (weeks late)

    Sparky your gap methodology is not used as much as it should be .... all rather interesting stuff..have a crack at refining it ...keep me posted.

    Last edited by Hoop; 30-04-2013 at 11:33 PM.

  7. #1147
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Hoop, which site do you use for Coppock charting?
    I use the Incredible Chart Software ...you can download it free... here..... it come with a 30 day premium trial that gives you all the bells and whistles...If you let the trial lapse the program reverts to the free version and some of the indicators greyed out and don't function..its still a very good free program.
    The chart programs do have a basic draw function..however I save the chart and open it with the "open source" Paint.net

    I use the free version...I would subscribe and pay my dough if they used a decent feed for NZ data. Yahoo NZ data is suspect at the best of times...the TWR data feed is broken atm

    Once your chart program is up and running NZ stocks can be accessed e.g Fletcher Building .. Y_FBU.nz ( letters not case sensitive)

  8. #1148
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    ...risk for an imminent correction is now extremely high.

    Kind Regards

  9. #1149
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Yeah has me worried too and have been liquidating portions here and there. Might switch 100% into utilities and the like. AAA Bonds? No. Cash? No. Some Corp debt looks nice - so maybe.
    Hi Belgarion,

    ...am definitely not saying that's the end of it. Price structure Long Term quite a bit of potential in it - no excessive data sets yet - sometimes in the 1750 area a different story

    Cheers

  10. #1150
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Yeah has me worried too and have been liquidating portions here and there. Might switch 100% into utilities and the like. AAA Bonds? No. Cash? No. Some Corp debt looks nice - so maybe.
    Hi Belgarion,

    ...am definitely not saying that's the end of it. Price structure Long Term quite a bit of potential in it - no excessive data sets yet - sometimes in the 1750 area a different story

    Cheers

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