Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

...Basically think around *1600 as the turning point. Under *1600, will give up strategy to accumulating 'long' started *1624.

...convincing support off *1598 to close trading *1623
(support RIGHT ON TIME to avoid 'SELL' trigger in system)
...now looking for a successful test into *1616 to catapult index higher into the *1750/*1800 extreme overbought price data set area.
Risk for a major 10-15 (%) correction off *1750/*1800 extremely high.

...on the flip side, failing *1616 introduces more weakness into the market with a high risk of another *1600 test

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

...convincing support off *1598 to close trading *1623
(support RIGHT ON TIME to avoid 'SELL' trigger in system)
...now looking for a successful test into *1616 to catapult index higher into the *1750/*1800 extreme overbought price data set area.
Risk for a major 10-15 (%) correction off *1750/*1800 extremely high.

...on the flip side, failing *1616 introduces more weakness into the market with a high risk of another *1600 test

Kind Regards

Interesting...eh Ananda

Mid day turnaround bouncing off the 1598 support and closing at 1623 just shy of its resistance at 1625....now if it closed above the 1625 resistance I may be a bit more optimistic.

....I'm of the view that the S&P 500 has reached the altitude where the secular headwinds is affecting the upside.. Market physics is in play.... increasingly more buying energy is needed for it to maintain or advance on its upward trend..

....however I do admit, a daily reversal at 1598 cant be ignored as it is has to be seen as a positive for now. The successful test has strengthened that 1598 support. Todays TA type movement helps to reinforce the view that this is an orderly profit taking period not an illogical fearful melt down...so far the market is behaving like another healthy Bull market correction

[ananda77]

....however I do admit, a daily reversal at 1598 cant be ignored as it is has to be seen as a positive for now. The successful test has strengthened that 1598 support. Todays TA type movement helps to reinforce the view that this is an orderly profit taking period not an illogical fearful melt down...so far the market is behaving like another healthy Bull market correction

...agree with your post completely, but for now what's in the quote above is all that's apparent and need to go by that. Am keeping alert around behaviour in the *1616 area (if it comes to that, suspecting a straight slice through *1625 resistance).

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

A good rise today to close at 1643 +20 (+1.26%) The S&P500 has once again stepped back from the sentiment indicators cliff edge
Getting to the sentiment cliff edge is normally not a common event...so, with this repeating threat to jump but doesn't may create a dangerous situation "cry wolf" attitude with investors and give them a feeling that Wall St is bullet proof.

It seems the 1598 was a short term reversal point ...minor short term resistance points are 1650 1660 with the top major resistance of 1670...failure at 1670 would create a bearish double top... If it breaks through 1670 then Ananda's 1750/1800 area comes into play .... 1670 this is the next area to watch

Another interesting thing I've noticed is that MFG has hit an all time high today. If the market believes this is a crash, wouldnt you think this stock would be the first to fall over?

Mizuno? or the manufacturing data group.??
Either way ......Americans are feeling richer now since their property assets are increasing in value This has the effect of the past reduction of household debt behaviour giving way to increased spending and to take on more debt.
....and may prompt the FED to commence a more rigorous tightening to damper down these potential hotspots....Reserve bank /Treasuries have a thing about rising property markets. If and when the FED react it would effect the forward looking Equity Indexed Market before the Retail Market

[Hoop]

Yet again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!............... the S&P 500 has gone to the cliff edge and threatening to jump (MA50)

Remember my experimental Sentiment Indicator needs all 4 to turn red to fire the "Get out" warning...3 have gone red a while ago now.. and the 4th (MA50) has been "crying wolf"

[ananda77]

Hoop:

...got to keep cool - buying opps into the GLOBAL SUPER BULL ahead - not to be driven into fear by financial fairy tale nonsense, the press dishing out - SPX 500 *1530 represents a 10% correction, if it comes to that - next 'long' accumulation point *1600
Why? - to cover potential upside with index trades since 50% Cash waiting to be invested - gross yields in Australia again touching 10% in selected financials (way to go), utilities, (my favourites) - yummy

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Hoop:

...got to keep cool - buying opps into the GLOBAL SUPER BULL ahead - not to be driven into fear by financial fairy tale nonsense, the press dishing out - SPX 500 *1530 represents a 10% correction, if it comes to that - next 'long' accumulation point *1600
Why? - to cover potential upside with index trades since 50% Cash waiting to be invested - gross yields in Australia again touching 10% in selected financials (way to go), utilities, (my favourites) - yummy

Kind Regards

Hoop is cool .......Cashed up 3 weeks ago big time (the biggest cash up I've ever done..it took me about a week to get out DB made a fortune in sell fees so they would've been over the moon with me.) ....got 85% of my portfolio as cash in the Trading Account now ....up from 3% cash....best thing I've done all year ..so far my portfolio has been saved from a 5% drop...I'll probably buy back the same shares I sold when the buy signals reappear.

[Joshuatree]

Well bugger me a 23+ point rise on the 500, a 180 point rise on the DOW, Risk on , good economic data, time to test the waste disposal with my fingers again.

[Hoop]

Well bugger me a 23+ point rise on the 500, a 180 point rise on the DOW, Risk on , good economic data, time to test the waste disposal with my fingers again.

Amazing..huh Joshuatree ?
Last night news was an Asian Rout spreading into Europe bourses....I woke up this morning expecting the worst for Wall St..........but it went up to 1636 (+1.46%) !!!!! Go figure!!!

The S&P500 steps back one pace from the cliffs edge...yet again!!!!!!!

.......boy o boy what a fight...this old bull is very strong...it just wants to continue upwards and doesn't seem to want a decent healthy correction either....its respected its MA50 touch and bounced up off it, for the second time.

Early days yet, and it's too early to generate mass investor confidence, but with each failure to technically break down, reinforces the strength of the Bull to be able to kick start another move upwards away from this critical correction trigger area. This bull behaviour may see buyer momentum increase as correction fears slowly fade.

[Hoop]

Well...how about that........what a strange coincidence
Hmmmm....interesting....kinda makes you wonder who reads ST...eh?

We are both using Sentiment Indicators

His prediction model tracks the percentage of companies in the S&P 500 that are in a P&F bullish pattern. ( topped out at 90%... 450 companies out of 500) .

My experimental prediction model I post on this ST thread tracks the NYA200r...the percentage of companies that have their price above the MA200 line (topped out at 82%).

sooo....there are no surprises .... we both have the same results

Point & Figure Patterns Warn Of $SPX Pullback
by Joseph Kalinowski