Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[peat]

Hi Peat
Is your chart on NZ time?

yes it was 10 min candles but not clearly showing the smaller time periods , apologies.
i note the resistance level held overnight and was touched again a few more times
Shown here on the hourly where you will see I have taken a cheeky little short and have now moved stop loss on that to break even -will probably get taken out , no matter.

[Hoop]

.......
Shown here on the hourly where you will see I have taken a cheeky little short and have now moved stop loss on that to break even -will probably get taken out , no matter.

S&P500 ended the day on its support line at 1782 down 21 (-1.14%) Hows that cheeky little short now Peat?

[peat]

Hows that cheeky little short now Peat?

Worked out well yeh.
Not going to hang onto it though.... There's still 85B a month pouring in to fight against.

[peat]

it would appear the market is pleased with the Fed's statements, i.e it recognises that the easing of the quantitative easing amounts to nothing - OR of course they agree with the Fed that the economy is improving.
Your choice which of these is the driver ;+)

[ananda77]

...the dovish words about keeping I-rates at near-zero levels for quite some time

...agree - but 'quite some time' is playing Musical Chairs as the bond bull market is over. Wonder to what level bank balance sheets are still polluted with toxic waste as QE will keep going until the sheets are washed clean. 2014/2015 at the longest...

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Fascinating chart below - the S&P500 deflated for the impact of QE

From a good piece here http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmy...-worked-part-i

Excerpt -

Nice and reliable. Consistent amounts of "liquidity" are pumped into the system every month, and things gently float ever higher. The only real hiccup for equities in all of 2013 was, in fact, the Taper Tantrum in May, when this stability was briefly threatened.

Doesn't bode well, I'm afraid.

The chart below, deflating the S&P 500 by the ongoing QE experiment, which I included a few weeks ago courtesy of Raoul Pal & Remi Tetot of Global Macro Investor, strips away the effect of the Fed's pumping and lays bare the market's real performance. It's one of the best charts I've seen this year, and it speaks volumes

[MAC]

That is quite interesting Winner, although sometimes this sort of analysis can seem a little academic;

Perhaps without QE we would have had very low PE levels for 5 or 6 years, ...., isn't that a TA's criteria for the start of a secular bull market ?

[Hoop]

That is quite interesting Winner, although sometimes this sort of analysis can seem a little academic;

Perhaps without QE we would have had very low PE levels for 5 or 6 years, ...., isn't that a TA's criteria for the start of a secular bull market ?

My quote from other thread...Cyclic bears kill Secular bears...

Re: QE puts the secular bear into hiberation ?...., Will this action lengthen this cycle's undetermined time frame for that eventual reversal to a secular bull market cycle or will it alter the shape of the cycle itself with a catch-up "self correcting" mean reversion? or a bit of each.........Perhaps, in the future, QE may be seen as that sacrifice the Equity Markets had to endure (2015-2020) to prevent that destructive 2008-2009 crash followed by years of Depression happening.

Ben has been fighting a huge financial war with all weapons blazing including a new super weapon ..a depression annihilator...Its seems Ben may have won..... or has he???

Quote from the other Ben ...Wars are not paid for during wartime, the bill comes later....Benjamin Franklin

Edit:..ohhh by the way Mac...I apologise in advance as I'm splitting hairs here....I think the Secular Cycle discipline has more to do with FA than TA

[ananda77]

The Dow annual chart since 1998: expanding wedge with price topping *15588.25 above resistance at end of 2013 - Ever since 1998, price started to correct in a multi year fashion after hitting resistance. So far, 2014 started below the 2013 Close and the market would be in for a multi year correction as usual
- If 'as usual' turns out correct, the 50% retrace *14967.27 is taken out convincingly, while massive support at this level will indicate the 'Super Bull' comes into full swing, turning the multi year upper resistance into the new support

One thing is for sure. The Fed since 2008 continued to support the banking sector by following its favourite philosophy of inflating assets prices to expand the mortgage loan market, corporate takeover loans and speculative “casino capitalist” loans for foreign-currency and interest-rate arbitrage as priority No.1

Less priority and highly conditional and still to be achieved, the Fed commits to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment via priority No.1 and the 'debt trickle down' effect.

As a consequence, the bull market will continue and move into the 'Super Bull' but a convincing break below Dow *14967.27 will turn the 'blue sky' expectations upside down

Kind Regards and a Successful 2014

[ananda77]

The Dow annual chart since 1998: expanding wedge with price topping *15588.25 above resistance at end of 2013 - Ever since 1998, price started to correct in a multi year fashion after hitting resistance. So far, 2014 started below the 2013 Close and the market would be in for a multi year correction as usual
- If 'as usual' turns out correct, the 50% retrace *14967.27 is taken out convincingly, while massive support at this level will indicate the 'Super Bull' comes into full swing, turning the multi year upper resistance into the new support

One thing is for sure. The Fed since 2008 continued to support the banking sector by following its favourite philosophy of inflating assets prices to expand the mortgage loan market, corporate takeover loans and speculative “casino capitalist” loans for foreign-currency and interest-rate arbitrage as priority No.1

Less priority and highly conditional and still to be achieved, the Fed commits to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment via priority No.1 and the 'debt trickle down' effect.

As a consequence, the bull market will continue and move into the 'Super Bull' but a convincing break below Dow *14967.27 will turn the 'blue sky' expectations upside down

Kind Regards and a Successful 2014

Note: the Fed's push to re-inflate the bubble economy drives the markets and according to Reuters: "Yellen and current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have stressed the economic recovery has a long way to go, and that the Fed is committed to stimulus as long as needed. Yellen, who is expected to win Senate backing for the chairmanship on Monday, first mentioned an optimal control policy path in June, 2012."