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  1. #1261
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    Noticing with one of my sediment indicators (NYA200r) which measures the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200day moving average...it has been diverging for 6 months now.
    I'm not sure what this indicates for the future.... this divergence is obviously bearish.. if the NYA200r down trend continues the S&P500 index rises will be reliant on decreasing number of stocks, that situation is not sustainable in the longer term.
    There is of course always that scenario the NYA200r will do a trend reversal.


  2. #1262
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...arnings-season

    The inconvenient truth about this US earnings season



    John Authers – FT

    20 Jan, 3:02 PM
    5
    Economics and Investment Strategy
    Economy
    Economy
    Global News
    US Economy


















    FT.com

    The annual moment of truth is at hand. American companies have embarked on publishing their figures for the complete year of 2013. These numbers tend to be more tightly audited than the quarterly updates that come during the year, so this earnings season arguably revolves more around the realities of life in the corporate sector, rather than a game between chief financial officers and their investors.

    This year, we should maybe brace for a moment of particularly inconvenient truth, after a year in which the US stock market has rallied by about a third, almost entirely on higher multiples. Forward earnings multiples for the S&P 500, based on consensus 2014 forecasts, are about 16 – well above the historical average, and above the pre-crisis peak in 2007 – suggesting that investors are braced for a significant boost in profits.

    The macro arguments for such a stance are respectable. The US economy may well be on the verge of a strong recovery, as it emerges from the fiscal drag caused by last year’s government spending cuts.

    But there are different ways to tally earnings across the corporate sector. They can be aggregated on an 'as reported' basis, including all exceptional items; they can be collated on an operating or pro forma basis; or some judgment can be used on which exceptional items are relevant. Any of these versions might be useful. But differences between them can radically skew perceptions.

    For example, the S&P 500 takes a strict view, including almost all charges that appear in the official data. This means companies appear to earn less than on other measures, so that their shares look more expensive.

    But the version of earnings used in the most widely followed earnings estimates might be too generous. According to Thomson Reuters, corporate earnings in 2013 are on course to increase by 5.7 per cent compared with 2012. This includes earnings for the first three quarters, plus the current expectation that fourth-quarter profits will be up 7.0 per cent.

    But Andrew Lapthorne, the indefatigably contrarian quantitative equity strategist at Société Générale, points out that the picture is different if we use the earnings data provided by MSCI indices. MSCI makes a judgment call in its numbers, accepting earnings as reported but giving itself the right to exclude “unusual gains or losses that do not reflect the earnings potential of the company going forward” - such as sales of discontinued operations, restructuring charges, bankruptcy charges or changes in accounting policy.

    The difference between these approaches grew clear during the extreme conditions of the profit fall in 2009 that followed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. According to Lapthorne, S&P core earnings fell 92 per cent, MSCI earnings dropped 55 per cent – and earnings as used by Thomson Reuters fell 36 per cent. For 2013, MSCI earnings growth is barely above zero. On an earnings before interest and tax basis, excluding the effect of depreciation, Lapthorne finds that US profits have indeed been flat for two years now. So the 'growth' achieved over the past year appears to be the product of accounting manoeuvres and little else.

    Meanwhile, companies are talking down their prospects. They always do this before results season, to give themselves a better chance of beating expectations. But the fourth quarter tends to be the time for broader discussions with shareholders. And in any case, the scale of talking down over the past few weeks is unprecedented.

    According to Thomson Reuters, 113 companies have so far given the market warning that their results will be lower than expected, against only 14 positive guidances. This ratio of negative pre-announcements is the highest on record.

    And while the earnings season is young, companies so far are finding it harder than usual to meet the low expectations they have set for themselves. Only 49 per cent of the 45 companies to report so far have beaten their forecasts, compared with a long-term average of 66 per cent.

    Meanwhile, estimated year-on-year revenue growth for the fourth quarter, on Thomson Reuters data, is 0.5 per cent.

    Lapthorne crunches balance sheets to draw more bearish conclusions. When measured as a share of sales, capex is nearly 7 per cent, well above average for the last two decades. Meanwhile, US cash piles look less impressive when viewed in the context of companies’ debt. Net debt (debt minus cash) has risen 15 per cent since the crisis. That debt has largely gone towards buying back shares, a move that directly raises earnings per share.

    None of this is necessarily that alarming as the companies and the economy try to gain traction in the difficult years following an epic financial crisis. But this take on earnings makes 2013’s remarkable expansion in earnings multiples look ever more hopeful – and ever more unnerving. Is a moment of truth at hand?

    Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.

  3. #1263
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Bit of bummer day today

    At least 1800 looks like holding

  4. #1264
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    Emerging market concerns seem the common reason given for the sell

    Turkey currency sell off / Argetina nearly broke again etc etc

  5. #1265
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    I hadn't bothered watch CNBC for ages but had a squiz today and what a circus. I sense panic and fear

    Omg - the man said the VIX has just spiked ...biggest spike for ages

    But the message must have come from above ....the cheerleaders saying a great buying opportunity .....BUY BUY BUY

    and those powers to be must be panicking .....the cheerleaders are going to have a panel discussion about why the Fed needs to UNTAPER. Good one

    Probably wont bother look at ths channel for a while, esp as Maria has moved to Fox. That Maria is something else

    Omg - they just flashed up a grid of the DOW stocks (I think) and its all red except for 2 squares

  6. #1266
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    The guy just said you can't expect the market to go up every day ......so no worries

    I sense a slight recovery as the da comes to a close

  7. #1267
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    It gets better .... forget UNTAPERING the cheerleaders are now calling for even greater Fed stimulus than before

    And the VIX is still spiking

  8. #1268
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    Default Today S&P500 is technically broken...very ugly

    A very ugly chart below....
    S&P500 is still open and trading (intraday chart) but MA50 is broken, Supports 1813 1808 1800 (psychological?) broken ...seems more likely now that 1775 support the big one which defines bulls or bears will be tested in days to come...
    So far there's a bearish double top pattern formed...
    Looking further into the future...We should watch for a possible complex head and shoulders pattern forming (left shoulders and heads already formed?) ..Caution rather than blind optimism should be noted if the index bounces off the 1775 neck looking to rally again.

    I will post my experimental nya200r correction indicator when the data becomes available...

    However ...some optimistic news for the Bulls
    That image below is my post which I outlined a possible double top at 1813 in December which did happen...but it failed...and that short correction quickly ended with a bullish rally
    We now have another bearish double top at 1850...will this one fail as well??????


    Last edited by Hoop; 25-01-2014 at 09:17 AM.

  9. #1269
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    Phew - good news the guy just said it is not the end of the world

    Another guy says not a bear market yet

    The lady cheerleader just told us that the currency crisis in EM is not systemic ....phew

    But most agree more stimulus needed. Maybe my mate Kunstler was right

  10. #1270
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    This is where it gets real interesting.

    Next week we'll see earnings releases from some of the bluest of blue chips: Apple, Caterpillar, Ford, Boeing, 3M, Visa and Chevron.
    So far, the earnings being reported have been a mixed bag, but mostly on the disappointing side. Should the earnings announcements next week continue to disappoint, we could see a continuation of the sharp declines we saw this week.

    This gets me really interested, because I have not been able to reinvest my dividends accumulated over the last 4 months (I always take my dividends in cash rather than automatically reinvest). My dividend-value rules have not identified any dividend-aristocrat and dividend-champion stocks worth investing from a value perspective. The yields are just too low relative to historical norms.

    So although we'd all like to see our stocks we own all shoot to the moon, sometimes a good old fashion correction is needed if you are a net-buyer and accumulator of stocks.

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