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  1. #1271
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    Default Correction Indicator triggered.."get out"

    "Get out" warning fired off yesterday with KST, last of the 4 necessary indicators to give the red arrow was triggered...KST only just triggered and being a day behind I'm not sure what todays S&P 500 bullish bounce off the critical 1775 support/trend double point will do to the KST indicator...

    So with todays respecting the 1775 support...is it all good news?....urrr definitely a Yes with sounds of relief!!!! and.. maybe later a... no..

    ...........with reference to No!!!..the interesting scenario of correction indicator firing off warnings now at a time so close to a bullish continuing uptrend reinforces and increases the probability of that forming H&S pattern currently in progressl to keep forming to completion.....As of now the righthand neck has been formed at 1775....areas to watch is for any breakdown from now to around the 1810 1820/40 area if that happens, that is the completion of the right hand shoulder...if the rally continues then 1850+ is the next area to watch as the simple H&S pattern formation is deemed as broken down and disappears forever...a higher high signals an end to the correction and another rally should be expected to continue....

    So ....Is my experimental indicator a "cry wolf" indicator?....I think not...it's proven itself now as a very good early warning correction indicator...it just happens that the recent corrections have been very shallow....
    Increasingly shallow corrections breeds confidence and exuberance as more and more investors lose their fear and start take advantage of any drop to buy more thus creating increasingly shallow and smaller corrections ....a typical bull market last stage in the cycle signature....At this BMC last stage its no worries, its good times, future looks rosy, no need to fear making money is easy!!!........unfortunately it is at this stage when nearly everyone dismisses that all rising markets need breathers to stay healthy and investors start to ignore their disciplines and indicators as they are seen as failing to do their job..."this time it's different..eh????"

    Rule No 1: if your reliable indicator triggers off, one should always respond to it..if its another shallow event, then no harm done... just get back in and treat the "get out, get back in" expense as an insurance policy...just remember the correction indicator will give you advanced warning of the "big one".



    EDIT 1/02/2014: 30th January removed the doubt...On a bounce day as a relief rally raised the market off its Critical support (1775ish).. the KST break widened
    Last edited by Hoop; 01-02-2014 at 09:15 AM.

  2. #1272
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    Default

    I love this quote........re:.4th quarter earning season ,... Bad January for equity markets ..investors telling the market that par earnings not good enough (Marketwatch)

    “Investors are like children: If you tell them you’re bringing home a puppy, you better have a puppy when you get home,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx.

  3. #1273
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Hoop, methinks the investors in US markets are as confused as we are as to where to put their money so they'll just go with the historical view ... I.e. US mrkts go sideways and up ... for how long? There a saying .... markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent (or something like that?) Me? Just adjusting (mainly tightening!) stops and seeing what happens... Not going to overthink this too much as I need my sleeps
    ...the SPX 500 quite oversold in the daily frame, however, still way overbought in the monthly. Despite the long term overbought, a lot of cash has been pumped into the markets going into the weekend Close. The Fed pumping versus institutional distribution -who's going to be the winner-

    ...Yellen, starting her job at the helm this week has to show what she's made of. At the worst, the market will be falling in a very controlled fashion -no big risk here-

    ...am expecting no more downside than into the *1750 before the market goes past the *1900...after that, a more substantial correction in the 'up to 20% lot' sometimes during 2014

    Kind Regards

  4. #1274
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    A77, how much money inflow is coming from outside the US?
    ...do not have an exact break-down of that

    Cash is flowing in from three sources: Fed - Institutional Investors - Foreign Liquidity Inflows. Since institutions are in distribution going sideways at the moment, that leaves the Fed and Foreign

    ...a word of caution: the Fed has an epic fight on its hand against the extreme overbought conditions in the US-markets

    Kind Regards

  5. #1275
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...am expecting no more downside than into the *1750 before the market goes past the *1900...after that, a more substantial correction in the 'up to 20% lot' sometimes during 2014

    Kind Regards
    *1750 now Line in the Sand, but at the same time not expecting too much downside anymore -most likely a prolonged sideways-

    Kind Regards

  6. #1276
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    *1750 now Line in the Sand, but at the same time not expecting too much downside anymore -most likely a prolonged sideways-

    Kind Regards
    ...some base building activity appears around the *1743-mark. Together with today's Close *1751.64 indicates, the market is ready to tackle the 18 December 2013 Low *1767.99 _Breakdown Point *1775. A Close above *1755.79 necessary to be sure if no long position taken around the *1743-mark

    Kind Regards

  7. #1277
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Isn't it a sad and weird world we live in when this is good news

    The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 331,000 in the past week, which was better than the 335,000 first-time claims Wall Street was expecting.

    .
    Last edited by winner69; 07-02-2014 at 05:43 AM.

  8. #1278
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    Default Correction still in progress?

    S&P 500 had a good day today ...1773 +21 +1.22%
    So is the correction over?....maybe but too early to tell...As with most corrections the biggest fall of the falls is usually at the beginning of a correction ...we don't know the time frame of this correction..
    As with all corrective behaviour late in a Bull Cycle we don't know if this is another correction or a start of a cyclic reversal...we have to wait to see what develops ...

    The good news is.... todays rise is a relief rally in an attempt to create a bottom,,,dip buying and very short termers in and out.
    More good news is...the amount of selling volume is a worry but could be viewed as healthy if that available money is sidelined and ready to fuel the next upward momentum...
    The warning news is.... todays rally tested the 1775 major support on the chart but so far has not created a bullish break above it...
    The bad news is ....the S&P500 chart is still technically broken...and this time it has many hurdles (resistances) to jump to create a new high..(continuation of the bull cycle).
    More bad news is...the index needs short term good news to enable it to form a bearish H&S pattern...so breaking the 1775 support is the short term good news needed

    Last edited by Hoop; 07-02-2014 at 09:46 AM.

  9. #1279
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...market has entered an extremely high risk zone with a Close just under the
    break-down point *1775
    ...a potential bull trap could take the market lower to at least test
    the *1743 area again
    ...take profit here and see what's gonna happen - let the market show it's true
    colors

    Kind Regards

  10. #1280
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    A great recovery today after a bad start when the really weak jobs numbers came out

    S&P back close to 1800 - that's good

    The cheerleaders on CNBC going to get their wish .....UNTAPERING and even more stimulus than before. Can't let the big plan falter now can we

    New record highs by end of month ....maybe

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