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17-11-2009, 07:41 AM
#121
Last edited by ananda77; 17-11-2009 at 07:48 AM.
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18-11-2009, 07:34 AM
#122
Last edited by ananda77; 18-11-2009 at 07:42 AM.
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19-11-2009, 08:01 AM
#123
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 18 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 17 October 2009-
...below the 50% retracement
http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 17 November 2009-
 ...Institutional Core Holdings
 ...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels  ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows  ...NYSE Momentum and Strength  ...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
US Economic Calendar -data point 18 November 2009-
>US Housing Starts: actual 529K (forecast 585K) (consensus 600K) (prior 590K)
>US Building Permits Oct: actual 552K (forecast 585K) (consensus 580K) (prior 573K)
>US CPI Oct: actual 0.3% (forecast 0.2%) (consensus 0.2%) (prior 0.2%)
>US Core CPI Oct: actual 0.2% (forecast 0.0%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior 0.2%)
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 18 November 2009-
...based on current market internals, downticks today point to ongoing consolidation in the SPX 500 below the November 16 High *1114 and as long as *1101 remains respected, the potential to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1143 further up in the next couple of days is still in play
...todays disappointing housing data did not inspire much confidence in the market, the USD so far refuses to break below the 75 level likely based on concerns of entering a very crowded trade on the short side and the index enters just about 'Blow-Off' territory on further upside
...as a consequence, the 50% Fibonacci and upper trendline resistance *1122/*1146 will form formidable ceiling targets from which the index could start a deeper correction
...failure in the *1107/*1122 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869
SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 18 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-
..ending the day 1 up on internals that favored selling, the SPX 500 seems to be in no-mans-land (or consolidating) for the expected spike up to *1122; for this spike to happen, the index needs to trade past *1107 and whatever downside will happen intraday, *1101 short term support should not be penetraded
> before market open: current position update: Cash
>after Market open current position update: long Russ2000 *597.7
Market Commentary -data point 18 November 2009-
Mike Whitney: What Minksy Saw - Why the Crisis Isn't Going Away http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney11032009.html ...Goldman Sachs analysts put it like this:
"How much of the rebound in real GDP was due to the fiscal stimulus, and where do we stand in terms of the effects of stimulus thus far?* Although precise answers are impossible at this juncture, several aspects of the report are consistent with our estimates that the fiscal package enacted in mid-February as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) would have accounted for virtually all of the growth reported for the third quarter."
Long Term: THE BEAR ...facing a monster
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 19-11-2009 at 08:17 AM.
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20-11-2009, 09:23 AM
#124
Last edited by ananda77; 20-11-2009 at 09:28 AM.
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20-11-2009, 07:29 PM
#125
In his ruminations for December 09 , Gross says BUY stocks.
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20-11-2009, 07:55 PM
#126
 Originally Posted by beacon
In his ruminations for December 09 , Gross says BUY stocks.
...go ahead and hopefully a bit cheaper then they are now -nothing wrong with that I guess-
Kind Regards
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21-11-2009, 09:40 AM
#127
...short update:
...the SPX 500 seems still a bit soft but according to internals some buying interest around the current levels, maybe taking a position ahead of a possible *1102 challenge Monday; USD stronger and testing 50-day MA; other than that the Friday up-date remains current for now
...current position: short position covered *1087.6 for now; Cash with downside stops
Sunday afternoon 'wifey in arm' reading:
Barrons: UP AND DOWN WALL STREET -Treasury Yield Plunge Sends Warning- http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...mod=BOL_hpp_dc ...the economy is supposed to be well on the way to recovery, in contrast to late last year when it seemed we stood on the precipice of a second Great Depression. The Dow is back above 10,000 and bulls claim all's right with the world. Why, then, would any rational investor be willing to lock up money for two years for the paltry return of less than two-thirds of 1%?...
[Economic Sense versus Political Limitations]
Mike Whitney: Things Could Get Ugly Fast http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=16177 ...Things could get ugly fast. With the Democrats backing-off on a second round of stimulus, the Fed signaling an end to quantitative easing, and Obama moaning about rising deficits; there's a good chance that the stumbling recovery could turn into another sharp plunge. Bank lending is shrinking, consumers spending is off, housing prices are falling, unemployment is soaring and the wholesale credit markets are in a shambles. This isn't the time to slash government support in the name of "fiscal responsibility". Obama needs to ignore the gloomsters and alarmists and pay attention to the Nobel laureates like Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. They're the guys who know how to steer the ship to safe water...
Société Générale: "Worst-Case Debt Scenario" -3 possible scenarios- http://www.slideshare.net/investoral...-debt-scenario
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 21-11-2009 at 10:35 PM.
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22-11-2009, 10:26 AM
#128
Market Strength Indicator
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24-11-2009, 06:30 AM
#129
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 23 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 20 October 2009-
...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement
http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 20 November 2009-
 ...Institutional Core Holdings
 ...Institutional selling action daily
 ...Institutional Index daily
 ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
US Economic Calendar -data point 23 November 2009-
>US Existing Home Sales: actual 6.1M (forecast 5.85M) (consensus 5.7M) (prior 5.57M)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual---- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 23 November 2009-
...SPX 500 surged higher after housing data; the Nov 16 Peak *1114 has not been eclipsed yet, but current momentum should carry the index past the mark to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1143 later in the week
...the USD still holding the *75 level so it is too early to determine if the current advance will be sustainable in the face of the above two formidable ceiling targets
…...failure in the *1122/*1040 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869
SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 23 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-
...the USD -with a currently 90% correlation to the SPX 500- in a real squeeze and ready to break out  the direction of the break-out would most likely be the major determinant for further SPX 500 moves;
...if the break-out is to the upside, the potential for a false break will be greatly reduced with an USD index Close above a minimum *76.85
...if the break-out is to the downside it would pay to wait to go long the SPX 500 until the USD index trades below *74.4 on a Close basis below Monday's November 16 Low *74.6,
...interesting as well and an indication that equities are most likely topping out (SPX 500 *1122/*1143 range (??) is long term liquidity flows into the market  : each time the market corrects, more money is flowing out of the market into the treasury market an explanation, why yields have been trading into negative territory again:
-safe haven buying to lock in equitiy profits as part of year end window dressing
...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:
> before market open: current position update: Cash
>after Market open current position update: Cash - trade short *111.3 covered *1109.0 - Cash
Market Commentary -data point 23 November 2009-
Paul Krugman: Interest rates: the phantom menace http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...hantom-menace/ ...I just don’t think the inner circle gets how much danger we’re in from another vicious circle, one that’s real, not hypothetical. The longer high unemployment drags on, the greater the odds that crazy people will win big in the midterm elections — dooming us to economic policy failure on a truly grand scale...
The Economist: The deficit problem -Dealing with America's fiscal hole- http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ry_id=14915152 ...A sudden crisis is unlikely. Other rich countries with far bigger debts relative to the size of their economies, from Italy to Japan, have soldiered on without hitting a wall. Stable politics, transparent laws and economic dominance give America unequalled credibility with lenders. For all the anxiety the declining dollar drew from China this week, it has no serious rival as the world’s reserve currency. America has sensibly used this fiscal freedom to enact an aggressive stimulus programme. This should be maintained for as long as it is needed....
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 24-11-2009 at 06:32 AM.
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25-11-2009, 07:46 AM
#130
http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 24 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 23 October 2009-
...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement
http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 23 November 2009-
 ...Institutional Core Holdings -holding above support and closing above the Oct 7 2008 level
 ...Institutional selling action daily -accumulating less
 ...Institutional Index daily -indication of late in the move and higher risk levels
 ...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -liquidity made a lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
US Economic Calendar -data point 24 November 2009-
>US GDP - Second Estimate Q3: actual 2.8% (forecast 2.8%) (consensus 2.8%) (prior 3.5%)
>US GDP Deflator-2ndEstimate Q3: actual 0.5% (forecast 0.8%) (consensus 0.8%) (prior 0.8%)
>US Case Shiller 20 City Indx Sep: actual -9.36% (forecast -9.25%) (consensus -9.10%) (prior -11.32%)
>US Consumer Confidence Nov: actual 49.5 (forecast 46.3) (consensus 47.5) (prior 47.7)
>USFHFA Home Price Index Sep : actual -0.5% (forecast -0.2%) (consensus 0.1%) (prior -0.3%)
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 24 November 2009-
...the SPX 500 hanging in above *1091 within a neutral trading day but as long as *1091 holds, the market is in for another advance towards the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122 or the May/June/August/September/October trendline resistance *1138 later in the week
...the USD again bounced off the *75 support and the lower top in the liquidity flow indicates the index topping out; it appears, the way of lowest resistance may be down for a deeper correction
...…...failure in the *1122/*1040 range will ignite a rather severe down slide to challenge the Oct Low *1020 initially and a penetration of *1020 on a close-basis should drive losses toward the June High *956 with potential to retest the July Low *869
SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 24 November 2009- ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-
...the USD in a squeeze and the *75 level still holding; the new Dow recovery High remained unconfirmed by Dow complex members Transport/Utilities as well as other major US indices SPX 500, Nasdaq, NYSE Composite; market internals reported an extreme bullish start with Advancers outpacing Decliners 10:1 at market Open before selling into the advance set the ratio back to 3.5:1 consistent with the November 16 SPX 500 High *1114;
-volume not jumping out of a box
-a negative MACD weekly divergence
-ongoing divergences amongst the major US indexes
...there is a potential risk for the market to test the 20-day/50-day MA or upsloping trendline support at a minimum
...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:
> before market open: current position update: 'short tilt'
>after Market open current position update: unchanged with downside stops
Market Commentary -data point 24 November 2009-
David Rosenberg: The Recession may have ended … but the Depression has not https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Article...ave_112409.pdf .. Secular shifts — we believe that the U.S. is undergoing a secular social transformation that will affect our attitudes toward debt, savings, spending and homeownership...
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 25-11-2009 at 07:56 AM.
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...Institutional Core Holdings
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
...NYSE Momentum and Strength
...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
tracking higher in the current up-trend but
indicates !Caution! because markets are most prone to reversal when readings > 1.0 no longer are associated with fresh price highs (Brett Steenbarger) -data point 14 November 2009-
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...Institutional Core Holdings 
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels 
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows 
...NYSE Momentum and Strength 
...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
which traded to its lowest point since August 2008 and appears to be quite oversold at this stage; the direction of the dollar break-out will be crucial for equity positioning
…in the same way the USD has room for another spike lower, the SPX 500 index has room for another spike higher, especially as volume accumulated around the *1108/*1109 level yesterday but another up-move is far from certain; 
...Institutional Core Holdings 
...Institutional selling action 
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
...NYSE Momentum and Strength
...VIX daily -more volatile markets ahead
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