Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[winner69]

This chart is telling me the Equity party people are pissed.....eh

Hoop what do the columns represent?

Not quite with it tonight

[Hoop]

Hoop what do the columns represent?

Not quite with it tonight

Don't worry its not you... the chart is not clear in it's explanation.
The chart came from here

The company announcements beat the guidances (pre-announcements) (red bars) so that tells you the majority of Management underestimated their pre-announced future result??...why?
Could this be the usual conservative action in future prediction???...underestimate the recovery, underestimate the bust but overestimate around the top....Not enough data to look back on history with any reliabilty...but the last record result (Q1 2006) makes sense.. companies and investors were climbing the wall of worry ....

This time the near record is happening during a period of investor complacency. Investors are very confident but are Companies still worried after years of record earnings???..why the divergence? ....Is it a Market disconnect??.. does one piece of history repeat and another ~15% to reach the top??.. or is it different this time as the bull is taking anti-aging pills. ...This is another piece of evidence that doesn't make sense of where the market is at ... so, I think Mr Market is pissed.

[winner69]

The chart came from here

The company announcements beat the guidances (preannouncements) so that tells you Management underestimated their pre announced future result??...why?
Could this be the usual conservative action...underestimate the recovery, underestimate the bust but overestimate around the top....Not enough data to look back on history with any reliabilty...but the last time record (Q1 2006) makes sense.. companies and investors were climbing the wall of worry ....

This time the near record is happening during a period of investor complacency. Investors are very confident but Companies still worried???..why the divergence? ....Is it a Market disconnect??.. history repeats and another ~15% to reach the top??.. or is it different this time as the bull is taking anti-aging pills. ...This is another piece of evidence that doesn't make sense of where the market is at ... I think Mr Market is pissed.

Thanks hoop - I will study

S&p500 over 1900 this week .....that be exciting eh

[Hoop]

Thanks hoop - I will study

S&p500 over 1900 this week .....that be exciting eh

Yep...it seems there's a good chance that's going to happen..probably 1950 before the end of April as well...

The higher it goes the more bearish I get.......I'm ok with the E side but where is the additional investor money going to come from to keep the P side up..Investor margin debt is already historically high....what do you reckon.?....

[Hoop]

Closed down -24 points to 1865 (-1.26%) on Friday did not trigger my correction indicator ..that caution signal 3 weeks ago and disappeared at the end of March has not yet returned either...
That one day drop did very little damage so S&P500 still technically healthy...

[Hoop]

Closed down again 20 points to 1845 (-1.08%)

Geez, three black crows (I think?)!!!!!!... and my correction indicator (made up of 4 indicators) still hasn't fired...3 have broken firing sell signals, awaiting for the 4th the S&P500 MA50 to break (1839) to trigger the get out warning...Another down day tomorrow will definitely trigger the GET OUT warning

Hmmm........if I use EMA50 (more sensitive to the "now" than the MA50)..that has fired sell at 1848 today Completing all 4 indicators....

Hmmm...maybe time to fine tune this correction indicator to be a little bit more responsive...I'll backtest with EMA50 to see what difference this makes.

Just for the record...3 black crows often feature in reversals
However the good news is that 1840 support was tested today and it failed to break it......so technically speaking the S&P500 is still OK, it is not broken..(yet?)

[winner69]

Percy was talking about fairies the other day ...here is another guy doing the same
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...bt-catastrophe

Quote -

He went further by agreeing with Financial Times writer James Mackintosh in declaring “a not insignificant number of stocks in the S&P 500 have valuations that rely on belief in a financial fairy.”

The Mackintosh article noted that before the two previous market crises there had never been more than 25 stocks in the S&P 500 trading at both more than 10 times book value and over 20 times forward earnings. Today there are 33, leaving us in uncharted waters.

That Macintosh article
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/461dc...#axzz2yKKYN1xF

[winner69]

Janet finally getting it and doing what's needed to keep the merry go round going until 2016

She must have had them worried a few months ago going off a on a tangent that nearly stopped the merry go round but all going to plan now

S&P be 2000 soon and Naddaq 5000

Good times to continue

[winner69]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sto...183711879.html

Yip W69, can being kicked further down the road. One wonder what the eventual outcome will be ...

Can will be kicked down the road until next election .... they have too much to lose

[Hoop]

Janet finally getting it and doing what's needed to keep the merry go round going until 2016

She must have had them worried a few months ago going off a on a tangent that nearly stopped the merry go round but all going to plan now

S&P be 2000 soon and Naddaq 5000

Good times to continue

Secret meeting last month about dropping the 6.5% unrmployment rate threshnold to kick in fiscal tightening....Hmmm not very secret even this mere mortal heard about it and I'm at the very bottom of this food chain...yes markets love it...the cheap available money keeps rolling in....

Amazing how this so-called "secret" is published with fanfare when Equity reversal signs popped up...Huh?

Unabashed market manipulation (again!..5 years now?)...they must have a open celestial link with Rob Muldoon the master manipulator.

Those of us being around during the early 1980's in NZ know how that ended...

Closed down again 20 points to 1845 (-1.08%)

Geez, three black crows (I think?)!!!!!!... and my correction indicator (made up of 4 indicators) still hasn't fired...3 have broken firing sell signals, awaiting for the 4th the S&P500 MA50 to break (1839) to trigger the get out warning...Another down day tomorrow will definitely trigger the GET OUT warning

Hmmm........if I use EMA50 (more sensitive to the "now" than the MA50)..that has fired sell at 1848 today Completing all 4 indicators....

Hmmm...maybe time to fine tune this correction indicator to be a little bit more responsive...I'll backtest with EMA50 to see what difference this makes.

Just for the record...3 black crows often feature in reversals
However the good news is that 1840 support was tested today and it failed to break it......so technically speaking the S&P500 is still OK, it is not broken..(yet?)

Nah...abandoned the EMA50 fine tuning idea...the connection indicator didn't trigger "Get out" with the MA50...The 3 day drop was an excellent test for my experimental sentiment Indicator..

S&P500 up for the second day (bottomed intraday yesterday at support 1837)
S&P500 up 20 (+1.08%) to close at 1872..
As there was no major trend breaks, does that indicate the 3 black crows (if it was one?) odds on being a reversal will be up reversal?? rather than down...or the lesser odds of a continuation....I guess time will tell