Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

**Hoop** · 03-08-2014, 02:37 PM

Winner......I don't know if you receive email from Chartwatchers ..if you don't then check out their NASDAQ100 & SP500 AD lines trigger signals article. Scroll 20% down the page to find the article..

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To Noodles and Others...you all may either love or hate TA people... but one thing they do very well is alert to all other groups (including the common and largest group, the Fundamentalists) when an unusual change or divergence has just occurred within the networking environment (macro and micro) surrounding various markets...Unfortunately, for this very reason TAists can be cannon fodder ..FA is a lagging discipline and assume all sudden shorter term market actions the same way..."noise!!!"...therefore with any sudden potential bad news warnings mentioned they tend to deny and shoot the messenger.....

You may have read my often "All the ducks have lined up in a row" quotes over the past years on ST...What the hell are ducks ? I hear you say?

You don't hear much about each individual duck ..The Media don't mention the various duck species as they fail to understand the networked complexity themselves and don't want the threat of losing readers/being criticised ..So..Media don't bother to identify a duck as they see them as individually unimportant and to the lesser educated media unrelated to anything important..and above all totally boring subject to write about...

.....which brings the question When is a duck or not a duck?.................without lots of time to spare the media can ill afford to find out...The end result of all this Media information/disinformation overload is the fact that the readers only get to see a small part of the duck story and constantly see only one or two most common ducks mentioned (e.g VIX,US$ etc)...or worse seeing a duck that's not a duck (a writers personal opinions... and opinions in general plus generated false logic).

Another major problem....Mentioning only the common ducks the media creates a false impression to its readers that these couple of ducks are the major factors affecting the greater scheme of all things, whereas in reality it is the combination of all of them...The power of the whole...
How often have you heard an investor say, "If a I had known this was going to happen I wouldn't been in the market" or "How unlucky am I?... No one could've seen this happening?"..

Just how many ducks are there out there is still unknown as the intire global system is made up of near infinite factors..Thanks to the Industrial Revolution we live in, data accumulation, the means to process this information, and the ability to communicate to the general public the results has exponentially expanded to give us some sort of knowledge to the law and order of how this gigantic global gearbox behaves...thereby improving our ability to forecast future happenings...

To find various ducks.. Chartwatchers for example use their charting tools but their major statistical chart weapon is historical correlation to comfirm a duck status......the more ducks found the better the forecasting..

For us Plebs not privy to the higher order of things and want to make an investment bob..we have to dredge all media to find the many hidden ducks from our lowly viewed postion...Chartwatchers is also media and so we have to constantly search the web and other forms of communication.

So... it was a joy to this duck hunter when The Chartwatcher email arrived this morning ...wow look at all those ducks....
Correlated data include :...
VIX
AD Signals
Energy sector charted data with correlations
Material sector charted data with correlations
$US Dollar charted data with correlations
Commodites sector charted data incl oil gold silver copper and Lumber...with correlations
Investor (behaviour) decision point charted data
SMA 50 breaks on Equity markets
Russell 200 chart behaviour as a leading indicator with correlations
Home construction sector charted data with correlations
10 Treasury yield rates with correlations
Software Industry sector charted data with correlations

Hmmm .....Is there a duck line forming?

**Hoop** · 03-08-2014, 02:48 PM

Winner......I don't know if you receive email from Chartwatchers ..if you don't then check out their NASDAQ100 & SP500 AD lines trigger signals article. Scroll 20% down the page to find the article..

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..............................

To Noodles and Others...you all may either love or hate TA people... but one thing they do very well is alert to all other groups (including the common and largest group, the Fundamentalists) when an unusual change or divergence has just occurred within the networking environment (macro and micro) surrounding various markets...Unfortunately, for this very reason TAists can be cannon fodder ..FA is a lagging discipline and assume all sudden shorter term market actions the same way..."noise!!!"...therefore with any sudden potential bad news warnings mentioned they tend to deny and shoot the messenger.....

You may have read my often "All the ducks have lined up in a row" quotes over the past years on ST...What the hell are ducks ? I hear you say?

You don't hear much about each individual duck ..The Media don't mention the various duck species as they fail to understand the networked complexity themselves and don't want the threat of losing readers/being criticised ..So..Media don't bother to identify a duck as they see them as individually unimportant and to the lesser educated media unrelated to anything important..and above all totally boring subject to write about...

.....which brings the question When is a duck or not a duck?.................without lots of time to spare the media can ill afford to find out...The end result of all this Media information/disinformation overload is the fact that the readers only get to see a small part of the duck story and constantly see only one or two most common ducks mentioned (e.g VIX,US$ etc)...or worse seeing a duck that's not a duck (a writers personal opinions... and opinions in general plus generated false logic).

Another major problem....Mentioning only the common ducks the media creates a false impression to its readers that these couple of ducks are the major factors affecting the greater scheme of all things, whereas in reality it is the combination of all of them...The power of the whole...
How often have you heard an investor say, "If a I had known this was going to happen I wouldn't been in the market" or "How unlucky am I?... No one could've seen this happening?"..

Just how many ducks are there out there is still unknown as the intire global system is made up of near infinite factors..Thanks to the Industrial Revolution we live in, data accumulation, the means to process this information, and the ability to communicate to the general public the results has exponentially expanded to give us some sort of knowledge to the law and order of how this gigantic global gearbox behaves...thereby improving our ability to forecast future happenings...

To find various ducks.. Chartwatchers for example use their charting tools but their major statistical chart weapon is historical correlation to comfirm a duck status......the more ducks found the better the forecasting..

For us Plebs not privy to the higher order of things and want to make an investment bob..we have to dredge all media to find the many hidden ducks from our lowly viewed postion...Chartwatchers is also media and so we have to constantly search the web and other forms of communication.

So... it was a joy to this duck hunter when The Chartwatcher email arrived this morning ...wow look at all those ducks....
Correlated data include :...
VIX
AD Signals
Energy sector charted data with correlations
Material sector charted data with correlations
$US Dollar charted data with correlations
Commodites sector charted data incl oil gold silver copper and Lumber...with correlations
Investor (behaviour) decision point charted data
SMA 50 breaks on Equity markets
Russell 200 chart behaviour as a leading indicator with correlations
Home construction sector charted data with correlations
10 Treasury yield rates with correlations
Software Industry sector charted data with correlations

Hmmm .....Is there a duck line forming?

**Hoop** · 03-08-2014, 07:45 PM

Originally Posted by belgarion

Um ... Hoop ... With that last post, can I respectfully say that you sound like an economist?

My advice? If in doubt - get out. Fast.

Personally...No doubt mate ..This year has seen me being slowly one by one kicked out by Mr Market (due to my strategy discipline) The taxman will be happy with me this year.

PS... not an Economist and not a Weather Forecaster neither

**Hoop** · 04-08-2014, 11:34 AM

My above post is more relevant to the NZX market where I'm more bearish as I personally think (chart-wise) the NZX50 index is further advanced in its Bull Market Cycle than that of the S&P 500 index.

The S&P500 Bull's demise(historically speaking) is overdue, therefore a turning (reversal) from Bull to bear cycle at any point in time from now on would not surprise me in the least....Reversals and Corrections start off indistinguible and only manifest themselves as time goes on.. the correction happening now is inconclusive so far...

Remember it is all drama atm ...in the long term aspect atm its a blip hardly seen on the long term chart (see below)..This could change of course but will it??
As I said previously the change will occur when the ducks line up in a row....The odd duck has lined up others haven't.... so ...a cycle reversal isn't indicated yet its too early to tell...I personally have no doubt because I believe the Wall St is still in doubt but as things stand as of last friday it still seems to be a bull market correction..

Whats a Duck?...

I got asked this question yesterday as the person googled it and got nonsense out of the answer Google gave...Well organised..wow great answer...
OK ..let me explain ..I've used this ducks lined up in a row method for so long that I forgot that it was my personal methodology and I named it a duck..It seems in the real world no one has named these types of correlation indicators as ducks so until this moment Google has no reference to my duck methodology....This type of correlation methodology is commonly used but not the duck name.......Sorry about that..

Actually well organised is close..What I class as a duck is the mixing (organising) of event variables and find a correlations with what I want e.g the Equity variable (S&P,DOW,etc)....My purpose is to create these ducks to increase the power of forecasting the DOW/S&P500..the more ducks, the more power of the forecasting.

I received an email received this morning about Consumer Confidence and unemployment rate correlations .....I decided to overlay the DOW on to it to see if it could be a duck....The DOW did loosely correlate therefore I have created another duck to watch...At the moment my overlay charts are static and up dating them is time consuming..however hopefully soon thanks to Google Charts via Google developers I may soon have all my ducks self updating...I have done this already with all the listed companies on the NZX using a self updating spread sheet.

My newly created duck (below) as do all ducks make visible information which is usually caste into the shadows due to the every day by day noise..Careful.. only to look at the trends on the chart as the DOW is not to scale

First Glimpse chart observations
1....Day by day drama distracts....so far this latest drop is a hardly visible blip on the long term chart...so no worries yet?
2....When consumer confidence (inverted) is growing and unemployment rate is falling the DOW is usually in the wall of worry phase (bull market cycle)
3....When consumer confidence (CC) (inverted) is at its greatest /unemployment rate (UR) at its lowest the Dow is usually near its top (Final phase of the Bull Market Cycle)
4....Reversals often see a recession and affect DOW
5...Since the last 45 years (charted time period) A recession hasn't commenced when the CC & UR have been this high up on the chart
6...Cycles seen on the chart don't seem to be affected by the FED
7...Don't rely on one duck only..false alarms with this duck appeared in 1985 and 1995.

So what are we looking for on this duck chart at this period of time...A hint of reversal (duck moving into a line)...As we see at this moment in time there is no hint (Yet!!) of this duck lining up to threaten the life of the old DOW (& S&P500) Bull

Reposted on the Goldilocks and 3 bears thread..future stuff re Corrections etc I will post it there

**winner69** · 04-08-2014, 06:31 PM

I found this interesting (Hussman). Fundamentals don't need to change to cause a crash.

“Abrupt market weakness is generally the result of low risk premiums being pressed higher. There need not be any collapse in earnings for a deep market decline to occur. The stock market dropped by half in 1973-74 even while S&P 500 earnings grew by over 50%. The 1987 crash was associated with no loss in earnings. Fundamentals don't have to change overnight. There is in fact zero correlation between year-over-year changes in earnings and year-over-year changes in the S&P 500. Rather, low and expanding risk premiums are at the root of nearly every abrupt market loss. One of the best indications of the speculative willingness of investors is the ‘uniformity’ of positive market action across a broad range of internals. Probably the most important aspect of last week's decline was the decisive negative shift in these measures.”

**noodles** · 04-08-2014, 07:52 PM

Another duck?
http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot...ital+Advisors)

**winner69** · 04-08-2014, 08:11 PM

Originally Posted by noodles

Another duck?
http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot...ital+Advisors)

Phew - so we all fine for tonight and the rest of week.

A couple of real decent days and S&P500 will get to 2000 .....good one

Thanks for finding that