Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 03 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 December 2009-

...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com : Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 December 2009-

...Institutional Core Holdings - closed lower while holding above its blue support line and closing slightly above the Oct. 7 2008 support level-
...Institutional selling action daily -Institutional Selling trend lines positive bias but it is retail driving markets higher at present-
...Institutional Index daily -divergence: strength trending down, while Institutional "core holdings" index moving sideways >late in the move and high risk levels-
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -uptick -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 December 2009 -

>US Initial Claims 11/28: actual 457K (forecast 500K) (consensus 480K) (prior 466K)
>US Continuing Claims 11/21: actual 4565K (forecast 5550K) (consensus 5400K) (prior 5423K)
>US Productivity-Rev. Q3: actual 8.1% (forecast 8.5%) (consensus 8.5%) (prior 9.5%)
>US ISM Services Nov: actual 48.7 (forecast 50.7) (consensus 51.5) (prior 50.6)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 December 2009 -

...market internals neutral as the SPX 500 consolidates below today's intraday High *1117 and further upside to briefly test *1122/(??*1148??) seems likely but
...intermarket non-confirmations of yesterday's new High in the Dow by
-Russ2000, Nasdaq 100, SPX 400 mid-cap
-SPX 500's financial, consumer discretionary, energy, and consumer staples sectors continue the large caps versus small caps theme of weakening markets

Bob Farrell’s Rule #7:
“Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.”

... failure between *1117/*1122 should spark a brief shakeout back to affirm the Nov 6 Peak *1071 for the markets to gather enough strength for another advance into end of quarter 30 December 2009 option expiry with *1122/*1145 as potential ceiling targets

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 03 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

> before market open:

current position update: 'short tilt' SPX 500 short - Russ2000 long -downside stops-

>after Market open

current position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 03 December 2009-

VoxEU: Charting The Great World Trade Collapse http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cha...trade-collapse ...The major debate in the economic community right now is whether the temporary fixes will be sufficient to get the consumer out of hiding. Yet with wage deflation and unemployment still surging, the likelihood of a favorable outcome grows dimmer by the month. And with systemic shocks like Dubai threatening to destabilize the fragile state of the world economy as we saw so vividly last week, a global economy priced to perfection may be just taking the policy of "hope" one step too far...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[arco]

.
Action is struggling at the red resistance line. As we have seen a lower low perhaps we could see a test of that red line to pick up orders stacked on the other side and then maybe a reverse.

I like it when a plan comes together

[peat]

how far do you think it will go Arco, and will you start blogging on the SP500 or will lincoln stick to purely fx?

[ananda77]

...the daily pattern of market 'Cat and Mouse' continues, this time the SPX 500 spiking into a new year High *1119 and selling off, the cat too tired to take out the 50% retracement of the 2007/2009 Break *1122
...currently, market internals run neutral as first line support *1097 undergoes testing; if taken out, further short term potential downside would include the Nov 6 High *1071;
...a successful defense of *1071 would motivate the market to another advance to attempt to take out *1122 and further up, the September/ October High upper trendline resistance *1145 which could act as the final ceiling targets for a deeper correction down to the *900 level
...first indication that a deeper sell-off is in progress would be the penetration and fall of the 27 Nov Low *1066

current position update: unchanged 'short tilt' -downside stops-

[Phaedrus]

[arco]

how far do you think it will go Arco, and will you start blogging on the SP500 or will lincoln stick to purely fx?

Hi Peat, probably transfer it over to the blog as there seems to be some interest.
Hugh bearish engulf on the 4h so not looking too healthy right now, and if that was a 3 Drives to a Top its rare but usually quite productive

[ananda77]

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 07 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 04 December 2009-

...testing support of upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 04 December 2009-

...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation- ...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines close to merging-

US Economic Calendar -data point 07 December 2009 -

>US Consumer Credit Oct: actual---- (forecast -11.6B) (consensus -9.3B) (prior -14.8B)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 07 December 2009 -

...the SPX 500 seems consolidating below December 4 High *1119 ahead of the overhead resistance range *1122 /*1145
...this consolidation could be the prepare for another stab higher but today's market direction appears decidedly bearish indicating that after supporting Fridays Close *1105, institutions are keeping a lid on buying while just selling enough for the retail investor to keep the market humming along
...as a result, the market still looks vulnerable for a brief dive to test *1071 in the short term

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 07 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...rare back-to-back outside days Thursday, Friday on the SPX 500 -historically leads to bullish outcomes-
...US Russ2000 outperforming larger caps Friday 'possibly' indicating increasing market strength
...a Close below trading range would counteract bullish sentiment, but basically looks like the market will want to seriously test *1122/*1145 range in the short term


...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

> before market open:

current position update: Cash -downside stops-

>after Market open

current position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 07 December 2009-

Joseph E.Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics): The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit http://www.arpllp.com/core_files/The...ing%201209.pdf ...Altogether then, either monetary or fiscal stimulus would help to attain more satisfactory outcomes for economic activity, employment, and inflation than those envisaged by the main economic forecasts. Monetary stimulus has the added advantage of also reducing net public debt, whereas fiscal stimulus increases net debt. In total, central banks in the four main developed economies should buy an additional $6 trillion in longer-term debt securities, which is expected to reduce 10-year bond yields around 75 basis points.

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 08 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 07 December 2009-

...past upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 07 December 2009-

...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines close to merging-

US Economic Calendar -data point 07 December 2009 -

>US Wholesale Inventories Oct: actual---- (forecast -0.8%) (consensus -0.5%) (prior -0.9%)
>US Crude Inventories12/04: actual----(forecast n/a) (consensus n/a) (prior 2.09M)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 08 December 2009 -

...as expected, the SPX 500 extending its retreat from Dec 4 High 1119 possibly as far as the Nov 6 High *1071
...a successful defense should set the tone for another advance targeting *1122/*1145 into 30 Dec 09 quarter option expiry
...failing *1071 would signal a much deeper sell-off towards the Nov Low *1029 or the Oct Low *1020 initially

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 08 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...due to insufficient volume, market direction turned even more bearish by day end but so far, there has neither been enough buying power nor enough selling pressure to swing the market decidedly;
...considering seasonality, the market may want to finish trading on a High note towards year end
...as a result, the *1122/*1145 range remains likley year end targets although volatility could increase short term as the market is vulnarable for a brief test of the *1071/*1083/*1090 range firther down

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

> before market open:

current position update: Cash -downside stops-

>after Market open

current position update: -stopped in -covered after trading profitable intermarket divergence -Cash/downside stops

Market Commentary -data point 07 December 2009-

John P Hussman: Hussman: 80 Percent Chance of Market Crash Next Year http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12...ash-next-year/

Moody's: The First Shot Across The Bow At Aaa-Rated US And UK ...while Moody's will never go ahead and directly downgrade the U.S. for fear of the mutually assured apocalypse such an action would create (or so Blankfein and Bernanke tell us), an exhaustive read of this report indicates that Moody's thinks the U.S. and the U.K. deserve to be anything but AAA http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fir...ated-us-and-uk

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[arco]

Still moving to plan on the Purple Track



rgds - arco

[ananda77]

Still moving to plan on the Purple Track



rgds - arco

-Thanks Arco-

http://invetrics.com: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 09 December 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 08 December 2009-

[center] ...past upper bear line and below the 50% retracement

http://stocktiming.com: Technical Market Analysis -data point 08 December 2009-

...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows -lower top indicating deeper negative implications if holding
...Institutional Buy/Sell Spread -low accumulation-
...Institutional Selling Action -selling trendlines negative upside crossover-

US Economic Calendar -data point 09 December 2009 -

>US Initial Claims 12/05 : actual---- (forecast 450K) (consensus 465K) (prior 457K)
>US Continuing Claims 12/04: actual---- (forecast 5475K) (consensus 5435K) (prior 5465K)
>US Trade Balance Oct: actual---- (forecast -35.0B) (consensus -37.0B) (prior -36.5B)
>US Treasury Budget Nov: actual---- (forecast -135.0B) (consensus -134.1B) (prior -176.4B)
>US MBA Mortgage Applications: actual 8.5% ; Refis +11.1%; Purchase Index +4.0%

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 09 December 2009 -

...market internals mostly neutral and SPX 500 trading holding above Nov 30 *Low *1085 undecidedly, possibly waiting for economic data as the trigger for direction
...the USD index shows signs of short term weakness
...at this stage it is too early to be definite for market direction

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 09 December 2009 - ...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT-

...a bearish trading day on higher volume with some surprises as positive tick buying power kicked in throughout the day indicating two-sided trading
...trading in the SPX 500 stayed just above the low end of the range and it is likely that further action will test the bottom, possibly diving to *1081 intraday
...the US Russ2000 still leads the way indicating the bullish case is by no means lost for now

...the SPX 500 Hedge chart:

> before market open:

current position update: Cash -downside stops-

>after Market open

current position update: unchanged

Market Commentary -data point 09 December 2009-

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Ten Investment Themes For 2010 http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/12/t...-for-2010.html ...feel that next year will be "a genuine watershed" in that it will reveal whether or not this 'recovery' is real or whether the fundamentally drawn out weakness typically associated with bear markets will rear its ugly head...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards