Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

A SUCCESSFUL NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL

www.invetrics.com:

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com:

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 05 January 2010:

...SPX 500 setting a new 15 month High *1136 and down ticking slightly at present; the market remains supported but could affirm *1123/*1126 congestion before heading higher to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[tricha]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-...ism-2010-01-05

Paul B. Farrell
Jan. 5, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST · Recommend (22) · Post:
Optimist? Or pessimist? Test your 2010 strategy!

12 'Dr. Dooms' warn Wall Street's optimism misleads, will trigger new crash


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Alert Email Print By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Test time: A neuroeconomic peek inside your brain's new strategy as we enter the "Doomsday Decade" and leave behind the "Lost Decade" ("lost" because the Dow dropped from 11,497 to 10,428 in 10 years, while Wall Street got rich wiping out almost 10% of your retirement funds). Test your 2010 strategy. Are you an ...

1. Optimist? As the new decade starts, are you an optimist who trusts Wall Street's advice that 2010 will be a great time to buy stocks. Wall Street says the "Lost Decade" (what a great title) is now behind us. So you believe that the 60% market rally since the March 2009 bottom will continue, with at least 20% gains in 2010.
2. Pessimist? Or, you're distrustful, cynical and pessimistic about all predictions made by Wall Street's bosses and pundits. You're particularly skeptical of any and all forecasts by the "too-greedy-to-fail" bankers who stole trillions from taxpayers, the Fed and Treasury, then failed to stimulate the economy and now pocket mega-bailout bucks as record bonuses, just one year after we saved Wall Street from near bankruptcy.

This is a simple test of your mindset. Betting odds say most of you will pick answer "1." Why? America was founded by optimists. You believe that a "happy conspiracy" binds politicians, CEOs and Wall Street, making capitalism work and America a powerful nation: So you accept Wall Street's greed, lies and thievery as the price of "free-market capitalism," and part of America's DNA. You embrace "capitalism-without-morals."
What year will 2010 look like?

The bulls see the market mimicking 1983, the bears point to 1931. Those in the middle see many similarities with 2004. Barron's Michael Santoli reports.

Unfortunately, optimism also blinds us to our individual and national faults: Hidden saboteurs tell us we know more than we do, have amazing skills we don't, and are protected by divine forces against dark enemies and even our own irrational stupidity. Yes, optimism is our inner enemy that periodically triggers trillion-dollar meltdowns.
New strategy: 'Getting back to even' means new risks, more debt

True optimists are gung-ho about the future, expecting to recover losses and, as CNBC television host Jim Cramer preaches, "get back to even" in 2010. But the problem is no one has a clue if the market will ever "get back to even."
Quite the opposite, since Fed chief Ben Bernanke is pushing the same optimistic cheap-money fantasies that his predecessor Alan Greenspan used to create the dot-com and the subprime crashes. We can expect to see the next bubble fizzle and pop, pushing us deep into the dreaded Great Depression 2 that the Fed and Treasury are trying to avoid by downstreaming today's problems onto future generations.
But soon future generations will start screaming: "The buck stops here" and revolt when the buck isn't worth much, and they've lost faith in the dollar (just like China). Then the game of musical chairs will end, tragically, sadly, stupidly, unfortunately. Why? Because we failed to stop short of total disaster, failed to prepare, and it's too late.
So to all you optimists who plan to actively invest in 2010 because you accept that America's "capitalism-without-morals" is working in spite of Wall Street's quasi-criminal behavior: Here's some dark-side input to factor into your investment equation for 2010 and beyond.
Listen closely to the words of our 12 "Dr. Dooms." For a moment, take off your rose-colored glasses, step out of your denial, see the Great Depression 2 dead ahead, really look at the future our "Dr. Dooms" see in their "Doomsday Scenarios:"
1. Faber: The 'American Empire' has peaked, is on a decline

Hong Kong economist Marc Faber says "the average life span of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years ... Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent ... overspends ... costly wars ... wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline."
2. Grantham: Learned nothing, doomed to repeat past, only bigger

Money manager Jeremy Grantham warns that our irrational nightmare will repeat. A year ago we came dangerously close to the "Great Depression 2." Unfortunately, we've "learned nothing ... condemning ourselves to another serious financial crisis in the not too-distant future."
We had our bear-market rally. Next, historical cycles plus our irrational behavior guarantees another, bigger global meltdown. We "learned nothing."
3. Stiglitz: Wall Street creating short respite before next crash

Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz recently warned: Unless Wall Street's incentive system is drastically reformed, "the financial sector will only try to circumvent whatever new regulations we put in place. We will simply have a short respite before the next crisis." Warning, nothing's changed, it's worse: Lobbyists run Obama, Congress and the Fed.

[ananda77]

tricha:

...SPX 500 is currently discounting a US 2010 recovery with GDP expectations of 5%

-totally out of line with global (world) real GDP expectations of 3.5%
-US real GDP expectations of 2.3%

...but unless the real numbers are starting to hit, market action will be based around the delusional numbers; you only have to go back to 2007 to find out how this numbers game played out in the end but in the meantime, reality does not make good friends with market timing

Kind Regards

[tricha]

tricha:

...SPX 500 is currently discounting a US 2010 recovery with GDP expectations of 5%

-totally out of line with global (world) real GDP expectations of 3.5%
-US real GDP expectations of 2.3%

...but unless the real numbers are starting to hit, market action will be based around the delusional numbers; you only have to go back to 2007 to find out how this numbers game played out in the end but in the meantime, reality does not make good friends with market timing

Kind Regards

So Ananda, when do u think reality will kick in ?, I have one foot in the ASX and one out, having worked hard in 2009 to get back to before the crash started.
I do not want a repeat preformance.

Happy hunting.

[ananda77]

Ananda, when do u think reality will kick in

...end of quarter reporting, earnings reports (expectations are for US$ 76)

www.invetrics.com:- data point 06 January 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 06 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 06 January 2010:

...SPX 500 nibbled higher to a new 15 month High *1138 and remains happy to consolidate with the January 5 Low *1130 as a likely base; the market remains supported to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

The latest freebie from Marketwatch.

S&P 500 clears significant technical hurdle


The latest TA analysis report from "The Technical Indicator"

Contains some simple TA charts

Quote:-
"......Still, this year's positive start marked a more significant technical event highlighted on the S&P 500's two-year chart: Monday's close at 1,133 marked the S&P's first legitimate close atop its 50% market-crash retracement of 1,121.
This technically signals a new bull market, and leaves the index with limited resistance until the 1,200 area,...."
.
.
.


Definition of Reality from Free online Directionary

reality [rɪˈælɪtɪ]n pl -ties
1. the state of things as they are or appear to be, rather than as one might wish them to be
2. something that is real
3. the state of being real
4. (Philosophy) Philosophya. that which exists, independent of human awareness
b. the totality of facts as they are independent of human awareness of them See also conceptualism Compare appearance [6]

in reality actually; in fact

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 07 January 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 07 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 07 January 2010:

...SPX 500 sideways to higher, managing a new 15 month High *1139 ahead of Friday's payroll data; the market remains supported to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<, but until the jobs report will be out of the way, upticks remain somewhat subdued
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 08 January 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 08 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 08 January 2010:

...after the payroll data release, SPX 500 appears to be consolidating just below yesterday's new 15 month High *1142 after modest selling pressure earlier on disappeared out of the market; the market remains supported above *1130 to test upper channel resistance *1145/*1150 near term; >*1170 anyone??<;
...failure in that range would invite a corrective move back to the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 011 January 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 11 January 2009-

issues (100)% SPY/QQQQ 'buy' recommendation -data point 05 January 2009-

Trader Update -data point 011 January 2010:

...the SPX 500 opening strength quickly disappeared and the index traded into the red indicating that a short term top could be in place; Friday's institutional uptick in selling, the marginal, positive market breadth, and a variety of macro sentiment indicators (p/c-ratio, %stocks above the 50-day MA) were the first indications of the current weakness in the market
...risk now lingers for the market to slip further near term to test the 29 December Low *1124 initially with potential to reach for the 31 December Low *1014
...a successful defense in that range would motivate the market for a retest of today's High *1150 which could turn out a double top scenario from which a deeper correction would commence;
...if the double top set-up plays out, the corrective move would target the 50-day MA initially, with further possible downside to test August/September/October Lows trend line *1073

The SPX 500 Hedge:

...Friday's weakness and Monday's strong future's advance into the SPX 500 target area *1150 initiated a 'short bias' in the hedge to protect equity exposure (fully invested)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

Stay in. (another new high!)