Winner...I've used your posted chart and overlayed it onto the S&P500 chart below...The black line is the S&P index, the red line is MA200 and the primary trend line (broke 2 years ago) is blue....
The result wasn't exactly what I expected...I assumed the extreme positive sentiment to be the signal for a major bull market correction or cyclic reversal , however that didn't happen after the June 2014 sentiment peak...There is an eyeball correlation but the degree of the falls can not be predicted..eg comparing the degree of the two sentiment values with the degree of the two falls in the index) that of Oct 07 peak to Oct 08 trough and Jun 14 and Sept15/Feb16
Another interesting fact is with all the sentiment volatility in the last couple of years the index has moved only about +/- 10%..in other words, investing in the index those last couple of year would have resulted in uncertain mental stress and bugger all $$$ to show for it..
that's very clever Hoop
I get the impression the the bullish/bearish sentiment number is rather a reaction as to where the market has recently gone - lagging activity if you get what I mean.
Eye-balling the chart sentiment turns after the market turns or gains/losses slow down (either way)
Suppose sort of behaviour you would expect - with markets at reord highs at the moment most are bullish eh
Nice looking chart - what can go wrong
Well done
Last edited by winner69; 11-02-2017 at 01:56 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
I get the impression the the bullish/bearish sentiment number is rather a reaction as to market has reently gone - lagging activity if you getwhstbI mean.
Eye-balling the chart sentiment turns after the market turns or gains/losses slow down (either way)
Suppose sort of behaviour you would expect - with marketscat reord highs at the monent mostvare bullish eh
An ancient (8 year old) bull (second oldest bull in S&P history) achieving a best record run in a quarter century.....Sharemarket theory and DOW theory recommends an Ambulance should be deployed immediately.. travel at high speed to keep up with this raging geriatric demented** bull so to be immediately available to assist when the old fella suffers a coronary arrest and goes balls up.
With Shiller P/E at 29.3 the calculations say (see box below) that if it takes 8 years to revert back to the mean (16.7) there will be implied future annual return of -1.6% over that 8 years....
An ancient (8 year old) bull (second oldest bull in S&P history) achieving a best record run in a quarter century.....Sharemarket theory and DOW theory recommends an Ambulance should be deployed immediately.. travel at high speed to keep up with this raging geriatric demented** bull so to be immediately available to assist when the old fella suffers a coronary arrest and goes balls up.
With Shiller P/E at 29.3 the calculations say (see box below) that if it takes 8 years to revert back to the mean (16.7) there will be implied future annual return of -1.6% over that 8 years....
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Hoop
Bookmarks