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The Bullish Short Term Take:
Barton M. Biggs runs Traxis Partners, a multi-billion dollar hedge fund based in New York City. He formerly held the title of "chief global strategist" for Morgan Stanley and was with that firm for 30 years.
Friday, October 9, 2009
...although Barton Biggs is extremely BEARISH in the Long Term as in /-LONGTERM: THE BEAR ed.-/ in the short term, the markets are -Only Halfway Through Stock Market Rebound-
Traxis analyzed 14 past bear markets—ranging from gold to US stocks—and found that when markets dipped more than 40 percent, the average rally off the lows was about 72 percent, he said. /No wonder, HFT's are chasing stocks into the Close -data point 09 October 2009- ed./ Since the Dow is up only about 45 percent and the S&P about 52 percent, the market still has a lot of room to the upside, Biggs said. (But if you do the math 72% above the S&P 666 low = 1145. That is only +7% from today's close; is that "a lot of room to the upside?" Seven percent is 2 weeks of returns nowadays)
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 10-10-2009 at 03:57 PM.
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Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 13 October 2009-
Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 13 October 2009-
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength
US Economic Calendar -data point 14 October 2009
-U.S. retail sales slumped 1.5% in Sep, above median -2.0%; +0.5% ex-auto
-U.S. import prices rose 0.1% in Sep, below median 0.3%; export prices -0.3%
-U.S. MBA mortgage applications index -1.8%; refis -0.1 % and purchases -5.0%
Bond Market -data point 14 October 2009-
-Treasury yields shot higher with stocks on Intel, JPM earnings; curve steepened with the short end leading
Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 14 October 2009-
...as expected, SPX 500 gapped open to extend to a new 52-week High *1087 this morning on 'better-than-expected' earnings data and currently seems to consolidate between *1080/*1090 for the reat of the trading session
...another push higher tomorrow could be expected to challenge *1097/*1100 target range which could turn out to be the expected exhaustion point from which a double top is established that could be followed by a sharp bearish reversal
...failure in that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July Low *869; initially, a move back below the 50-day MA at *1027 would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway
...NO GUARANTEES, but to play this potential, the following strategy is deployed:
-bias: SPX 500 at a double top
-stay with current short *887
-initial target for review *915
-exit stop: *1011
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 15-10-2009 at 08:42 AM.
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Ichimoku System is still long on H4 with thick Kumo support.
Kumo is thinning on D1 chart which shows and element of slowing.
The system gave a complete set of bullish signals in early October
and here we can see the triggers and result.
Mini S&P Globex H4 chart
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Originally Posted by belgarion
A77, I'm a bit confused by your reference to a double top ... While I don't have great charting tools and rely on freebees, I can't identify the double-top you're referring too. It looks more like one-way traffic to me ... Could you elaborate a bit? TIA.
Hi Belgarion: the second top is not yet established and is supposed to be the May - July - August - trendline resistance *1097/*1100 psych barrier here seen in the chart (the supposed top *1097/*1100 would be an 'uneven spread double top'); if the market breaks above trendline resistance, it will be 'Blow-Off Territory' at best, considering that current SPX 500 level is based on earnings expectations of USD 83.00 (too optimistic and not very realistic);
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 15-10-2009 at 06:06 PM.
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Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 15 October 2009-
Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 14 October 2009-
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength (if the S&P pulls back after moving up to its upcoming *1121 resistance, then the Momentum will be in danger of breaking the support at that time.
US Economic Calendar -data point 15 October 2009-
# U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in Sep, above median 0.1%; core +0.2%, above median 0.1%
# U.S. Philly Fed to slipped to 11.5 in Oct, below median 12.5 vs 14.1 in Sep
# NY Empire State index surged to 34.6 in Oct, above median 18.0 vs 18.88 Sep (Mixed Business: "The lack of usefulness for the Fed's Business Outlook surveys can be seen with a quick comparison between the Philly report and the NY Empire State. NY Fed shows an extremely strong pickup in the manufacturing sector as the index improved a whopping 83% to 34.57 in October while the Philly report showed business conditions declined 18%. It is impossible to discern which survey is telling the truth about the state of the manufacturing sector.)
# U.S. initial jobless claims fell 10k to 514k, below median 525k for Oct 10 week
# U.S. 10/3 Continuing Claims 5992K actual 6067K prior
Bond Market -data point 15 October 2009-
Treasury yields reversed lower with stocks on-fact of Goldman, Citi earnings
Treasury yields rebounded with mostly firmer data after dropping with weak stocks
Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 15 October 2009-
...SPX 500 suffered a mild sell-the-fact reaction to this mornings' earnings data and the index traded down to intraday *1086 as a result;
...the Oct 12 Peak *1079 remains a floor and there is a good chance for one more push higher in the next 1-2 days to challenge May-Jul-Aug Highs trendline resistance at *1097/*1100 psych barrier;
...in that range, the market should reach an exhaustion point that will establish an uneven spread double top, followed by a sharp bearish reversal that could leave the market wide open to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July Low *869.
...trading initially below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway
...Google (first call 5.42 v 4.92) and IBM (first call 2.38 versus 2.05) report earnings after the Close and if the market is impressed could be the trigger for the expected jolt up
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 16-10-2009 at 06:36 AM.
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Ichimoku Buy/Sell signals.
It can be difficult to discern Buy/Sell signals on an Ichimoku chart because of the multiplicity of plots. This method of directly marking these signals makes it easier to identify them and to see their relative strength. Evaluating their worth becomes very much easier.
The colour of the SP500 plot shows whether the basic Tenkan/Kijun setup is Bullish or Bearish. (This is controlled by whether the Red line on Arco's chart is above (Bullish) or below (Bearish) the Blue line).
Arrows mark Tenkan/Kijun crossovers, the source of Ichimoku buy/sell signals.
The colour of the arrow shows whether it is a Bullish crossover (blue) or a Bearish crossover (red).
The SIZE of the arrow indicates the relative strength of the signals, based on whether they occur when the plot is above, below or in the Kumo Cloud. (Support/Resistance zone)
The trend ribbon along the bottom of the chart shows us whether the Kumo (Support/Resistance Cloud) is Bullish (shaded Green on Arco's charts) or Bearish (shaded Red) This provides another means of further evaluating the strength of any given signal.
One big advantage of such a presentation is that it readily enables the backtesting of decades of data so that the historical profitability of Ichimoku trading signals can be directly compared with those of other systems. Backtesting also enables us to address those tricky questions such as "should weak signals be ignored?" "Should neutral signals be ignored?" "Is the Chikou
element of Ichimoku best dispensed with?" "Are 9 and 26 the optimum parameters for Tenkan/Kijun crossovers?" etc.
A couple of quick observations from the chart :- Strong signals are not necessarily followed by large movements, as at point (1). Weak signals sometimes are followed by large movements, as at point (2). I have seen it stated that "Eliminating the Chikou Span and ignoring weak crossovers
enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy." This would mean that signals such as that at (2) would be ignored - a pity, yes?
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