Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Back to the 1085 level. Results from some of the big players today weren't that bad - once again it was the forcasting commentry that is freaking people out. Greece is providing a sideshow and Ben will be back in his seat tomorrow. Lot of noise at the moment and there seems to be a huge emphasis in the media to ensure the spin is negative. The brave (or foolhardy?) will be toping up at the expense of the fearful (sensible?).

...checking market breadth today the ratio roughly = 1:3 negative

(Hedge Funds Sell the S&P 500 & Commodities (Trend Monitor Report) http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/01/h...mmodities.html

...maybe later will be a better time to top up

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Back to the 1085 level. Results from some of the big players today weren't that bad - once again it was the forcasting commentry that is freaking people out. Greece is providing a sideshow and Ben will be back in his seat tomorrow. Lot of noise at the moment and there seems to be a huge emphasis in the media to ensure the spin is negative. The brave (or foolhardy?) will be toping up at the expense of the fearful (sensible?).

Yes media is negative ..but they reflect the mood of the masses right or wrong.


A good strategy into entering into a correction involves using the risk V reward strategy (RVR)

The brave entering the market now ain't brave.... either they are impulsive (emotional with no discipline) or they're wimpy impatient RVR investors and are fearful that if they don't enter now they will miss out. The brave and perhaps stupid RVR investors are the buyers who hold off buying right up to the last moment, going as close as they can get to that line drawn in the sand before that wave comes in. (absolute minimum risk / absolute maximum reward)

For the average investor the line is the 1020-1030 area ... if this area is breached in a convincing fashion then the market switches primary trend and becomes down trending...a bearish area which puts the bull market under threat. The RVR investor using this line in their calulations will sell out here and take a small loss depending at what point they bought in.

As it is perceived by most investors we are in a bull market so this line area should hold...therefore the "who blinks first" situation occurs. As the line area becomes closer the RVR investors get increasingly pressured to buy.

[peat]

Ichimoku would indicate kumo (cloud) support in this area

but (edit) I'm holding my shorts for now

[Phaedrus]

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 29 January 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 29 January 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010

Trader Update -data point 29 January 2010:

...another attempt of an oversold bounce from the *1074/*1078 range tonight which could climb as far as the Jan 26 High *1104; considering institutional action and the state of liquidity flowing into the markets , it is doubtful, the market has posted a final Low yesterday;

...as a matter of interest, checking the internals, this morning's advance turned out to be quite tepid smelling of the absence of institutional action in terms of buying and selling; selling however, with support from institutions, started later with a much more determined approach to drive the market back towards the starting point at a minimum

...failure to break through *1104 would set the stage for a deeper sell-off with the Nov 6 Low *1057 as an initial target and potential to reach out to the Nov 2 Low *1020 as a possible floor

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Are we red now Phaedrus?

...guessing here, but if Phaeadrus's indicator is of any value, it most likely will not go red above the *1030/*1020 range...otherwise it just would not make any sense...

and the Weekend Drama Series continues>>>

-Battle Of The Titans - JPMorgan Vs Goldman Sachs Or Why The Market Was Down for 7 Days In A Row

By Ellen Brown (WebOfDebt.com) -data point 1-29-10-

Obama: ""We can't allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy. The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes. And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back"

Keiser's January 23 http://ia350642.us.archive.org/2/ite...adio-TheTruth: "High frequency trading accounts for 70% of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Ordinarily, a buyer and a seller show up on the floor, and a specialist determines the price of a trade that would satisfy buyer and seller, and that's the market price. If there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, the specialist lowers the price. High frequency trading as conducted by Goldman means that before the specialist buys and sells and makes that market, Goldman will electronically flood the specialist with thousands and thousands of trades to totally disrupt that process and essentially commandeer that process, for the benefit of siphoning off nickels and dimes for themselves. Not only are they siphoning cash from the New York Stock Exchange but they are also manipulating prices. What I see as a possibility is that next week, if the bankers on Wall Street decide they don't want to be reformed in any way, they simply set the high frequency trading algorithm to sell, creating a huge negative bias for the direction of stocks. And they'll basically crash the market, and it will be a standoff. The market was down three days in a row, which it hasn't been since last summer. It's a game of chicken, till Obama says, 'Okay, maybe we need to rethink this.'"
http://www.rense.com/general89/battle.htm

...wish a smaller version would be around in NZ to convince even the most stubborn car enthusiast that train travel is 'the only civilized form of continental transport' available; how long do we have to endure the NZ dinosaur type transport system until the government wakes up and stops all billion dollar subsidies which keep the traffic jungle alive and well

Travellers board a high-speed train which heads to Guangzhou in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Boxing Day; as a matter of fact, those type trains have run in Germany for donkey's years...

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

1030/20 would be slightly below the last low back in Dec? ... Will we get there? ...

Macros suggest not (GDP surges 5.7pc to lift hopes for more jobs in US)

January 29, 2010 – LUNCH WITH DAVE

Lunch with Dave — The Houdini Recovery

The growth bulls are out in full force in the aftermath of the release of Q4 GDP in the U.S.
Real GDP came in at 5.7% QoQ annualized rate in Q4, but it was dominated by a huge inventory adjustment

First, the report was dominated by a huge inventory adjustment — not the onset of a new inventory cycle, but a transitory realignment of stocks to sales. Excluding the inventory contribution, GDP would have advanced at a much more tepid 2.2% QoQ annual rate, not really that much better than the soft 1.5% reading in the third quarter.

Second, it was a tad strange to have had inventories contribute half to the GDP tally, and at the same time see import growth cut in half last quarter. Normally, inventory adds are at least partly fuelled by purchases of foreign-made inputs. Not this time. Strip out inventories and the foreign trade sector, we see that domestic demand growth in the fourth quarter actually slowed to a paltry 1.7% annual rate from 2.3% in the third quarter. Some recovery. Based on some simulations we ran, demand growth with all the massive doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus should already be running in excess of a 10% annual rate. So, the real question that nobody seems to ask is why it is that underlying demand conditions are still so benign more than two years after the greatest stimulus of all time. The answer is that this epic credit collapse is a pervasive drain on spending and very likely has another five years to play out.

Third, if you believe the GDP data — remember, there are more revisions to come — then you de facto must be of the view that productivity growth is soaring at over a 6% annual rate. No doubt productivity is rising — just look at the never-ending slate of layoff announcements. But we came off a cycle with no technological advance and no capital deepening, so it is hard to believe that productivity at this time is growing at a pace that is four times the historical norm. Sorry, but we're not buyers of that view. In the fourth quarter, aggregate private hours worked contracted at a 0.5% annual rate and what we can tell you is that such a decline in labour input has never before, scanning over 50 years of data, coincided with a GDP headline this good. Normally, GDP growth is 1.7% when hours worked is this weak, and that is exactly the trend that was depicted this week in the release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which was widely ignored. On the flip side, when we have in the past seen GDP growth come in at or near a 5.7% annual rate, what is typical is that hours worked grows at a 3.7% rate. No matter how you slice it, the GDP number today represented not just a rare but an unprecedented event, and as such, we are willing to treat the report with an entire saltshaker — a few grains won’t do.

Fourth, while the Chicago PMI and the revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also served up positive surprises, the “hard” data in terms of housing starts, home sales and consumer spending suggest that there is little, if any, momentum heading into early 2010. Moreover, the prospect that we see a discernible slowing in the pace of economic activity this quarter and a relapse in the second quarter is non trivial, in my view — by then, today's flashy headline will be a distant memory.
Remember, there are more revisions to come to this GDP report

----SPX 500 *870 would be more like a bargain tempting point to top up----

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 01 February 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 01 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 01 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 is bouncing back from the Jan 29 Low *1072 and is heading up to challenge Friday's High *1097; short- to intermediate term indicators are extremely oversold but the institutional index of core holdings broke its uptrend and continues heading south; additionally, longer term momentum indicators crossed over indicating further downside price pressure

...as a consequence, selling the rallies appears to be the correct strategy for now until market internals are set up to continue the March 09 bull trend

...based on A/D internals today, the current bounce is missing broad based support and the index could stall beneath *1097 for another dive to test the Nov 6 Low *1057 as a potential near term floor

...ultimately however, it is unlikely, that the market will be happy with anything else but a minimum Nov 2 Low *1030 or the 200 MA *1014 with potential to reach down to the *1000 psych barrier as the stronghold from which the March bull run could continue

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[beacon]

Glen has stayed his hand in Oz, surprising the market.
Reasons stated: watching impact of previous hikes.
More likely reasons: turmoil over Eurozone trouble, SinoUS tensions and Sino credit tightening.
My expectations: Down moves looking likely in the short-term ...

[ananda77]

stocktiming.com:

...some statistics about the NYSE algorithm over a period of the last eleven years:

-this indicator moved to this extreme low point 11 times over the last eleven years
-most of the times, the market saw more down movement for the next 5 days (one time showed 10 days)
-twice, the market went up for 5 days then dropped lower for a week
-a few times, the market hit bottom within 24 hours



Kind Regards