Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 02 February 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 02 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 02 February 2010:

...the SPX is extending the oversold bounce from Jan 29 Low *1072 and price action is very close to the 38.2% retrace of the Jan Break *1102

...failure at that point should start another move down to test the trendline support off of Oct/Nov Lows *1057

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 03 February 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 03 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 03 February 2010:

...the SPX oversold counter-trend rally from Jan 29 Low *1072 appears to have run out of steam; price action to the downside so far is moderate however, still leaving the upside door open for another possible push higher; the next upside targets would be the 20-day MA/50-day MA cross-over *1110 or the Jan 22 High *1115

...failure in that range or closing below yesterday's High *1103 today should start another move down to test the trendline support off of Oct/Nov Lows *1057 initially

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 04 February 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 04 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 04 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 got truly hammered in the wake of disappointing employment data and severed the Jan 29 near term support with an intraday Low *1068; it all looks a bit much for one trading day and it is doubtful that *1072 will be taken out on a Close basis, as the 2-days oversold bounce appears to have been pre-maturely sliced dead

...if *1072 holds the index may consolidate for a while in the *1072/*1105 range before *1072 most likely will bite the dust in an impulsive sell-off with the 200-day MA as an initial target

...checking market internals, the Trin ranges close to 3 intraday...

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[peat]

thats a huge red candle !

the force must be strong.

[evilroyrule]

on bad days, sing this song to yourself and remember the good times you have had with your portfolio. the good times that you have shared. and the good times that may lie ahead for you.

you may like to insert the name of your favourite share in place of star. it works equally well if you sing it as "catch a falling knife"


Catch a falling star, Never let it fade away!
Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day!

For love may come an' tap you on the shoulder,
Some star-less night!
Just in case you feel you wanna hold her,
Youll have a pocketful of starlight!

Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Never let it fade away! ( Never let it fade away! )
Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day! ( Save it for a rainy day! )


For when your troubles start a multiplying,
An' they just might!
It's easy to forget them without trying,
With just a pocketful of starlight!

Catch a falling star and ( Catch a falling . . . ) put it in your pocket,
Never let it fade away! ( Never let it fade away! )
Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket,
Save it for a rainy day!

Save it for a rainy day! (put in bottom drawer)

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 05 February 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 February 2009-

cash -data point 22 January 2010-

Trader Update -data point 05 February 2010:

...the SPX 500 broke the Jan 29 near term key support *1072 yesterday and traded lower off the trendline support of the Sept/Oct Lows *1059 today pointing the way to a deeper correction ahead

the Trin closed at 3.42 yesterday and a Close above 3 usually marks an exhaustion point; as a consequence, the market appears ready for a bounce into the the key support *1072/*1085 range;

...failure in that range would set the 200-day MA as the next target with potential to reach out for the Aug 17 Low *979

...the institutional index of core holdings is less than 1.5% away from a secondary support drawn off the March 30/July 2009 Low

Long Term: THE BEAR

[ananda77]

That was quite some fightback today ... Phew!

...covering short position at SPX 500 *1056 turned out a bit early but a safe bet

...here is an article dwelling on the benefits of Not sitting like a duck, eyes glazed over, in front of a shot gun barrell:

...

Being Street Smart
Sy Harding
Can Corrections Be Better Than Rallies?
February 5 2010

Twenty years ago, just prior to the 1990 recession, I wrote a little booklet for my subscribers which I titled ‘Bear Markets Are Best’. Its premise was not that bear markets are really better than bull markets, but that they are not something to be feared, and do have some advantages over bull markets. The same goes for intermediate-term corrections within bull markets.
For instance, if y ou position for them in a reasonably timely manner, not just by moving to cash to avoid losses, but to downside positions that go up when the market goes down, the profits can come faster than they do in rallies and bull markets.
That’s because the market moves down much faster in corrections than it moves up in rallies.
For instance, in the 1990 bear market the S&P 500 lost the gains of the previous 15 months in just four months of decline. An investor playing the downside could have made at least some portion of 15 months of gains in just four months, rather than giving back 15 months of gains. In the 1987 bear market the S&P 500 lost the gains of the previous 18 months in just three months. In the 2000-2002 bear market it lost the previous four years of gains in two and half years. In the recent 2007-2009 bear market it lost its previous five years of gains in just 17 months.
At the present time, since its peak on January 19, just over two weeks ago, the S&P has lost all its gains of the previous three months, closing Thursday at its level of November 5.
It is an important lesson not just for buy and hold investors, but for all investors. When market declines take place, if no action is taken, previous gains can be given back much quicker than they were made. Just avoiding at least some of the decline is advantageous to long-term investing performance. If even partial downside positioning is taken in time, further gains can actually be made from the market decline.
In the ‘old days’ prior to the introduction of bear-type mutual funds, and the more recent introduction of ‘inverse’ mutual funds and ‘inverse’ etf’s, investors could only take advantage of market corrections to avoid large losses, and then make some of the profits all over again by getting back in at lower prices.
Even that strategy produced significant market-beating performances.
In 1986 Norman Fosbach included a study in his book Market Logic covering the period from 1964-1984, in which he found that an investor starting with $100,000 in 1964 would have produced a gain of $775,000 over the 20-year period on a buy and hold basis, using the S&P 500 as the proxy. That’s a substantial gain.
However, his study found that if an investor could have timed only the major market swings over the period he would have turned the $100,000 into $13,810,000 over the same period. And timing only successfully enough to avoid the three worst downturns of that 20-year period would have turned $100,000 into $4,797,000, almost six times as much as the market made on a buy and hold basis.
In fact, Fosbach’s study found that any degree of success at all in avoiding even a portion of downdrafts had a tremendous effect on long-term accumulation of wealth. His study showed that if one recognized a correction was underway only perceptively enough to sell short for only one-fourth of each of the three worst corrections during the twenty-year period, and remained invested through all the rest of the downturns, he still would have tripled the return of a buy and hold strategy.
I haven’t run the numbers, but given the market’s periodic give-back of previous gains over the last twenty years, which I noted at the top of the column, it seems obvious that it has been the same situation for the last 20 years. Avoiding even a portion of the big losses, or even better, to make additional gains from downside positions during at least portions of big declines, can be a major influence on long-term investing success.
Given the market’s action of the last two weeks it might be something investors would do well to study up on.

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Agree with Belg...a good article Ananda.

These articles surface every once in a while and when they do they are always a "must read"... Over time, we tend to lose investment focus with all the outside interference such as the hype and market noise. These articles help regain that focus.

[drillfix]

...here is an article dwelling on the benefits of Not sitting like a duck, eyes glazed over, in front of a shot gun barrell:
...
Being Street Smart
Sy Harding
Can Corrections Be Better Than Rallies?
February 5 2010

LOL, some great commentary there ananda, very graphical in the mind

Also really good article, nice find.

The gains from also being cash out at key or certain times and whilst using the general market gravity to take Short positions as long alternatives.

Meaning trade the direction of what the general market/index is doing and dont fight it, go with it.

Problem is for most folks or the majority is they are holding stocks and thats all they are doing, holding them and waiting and this unfortunately means when the Tide turns, the gains get washed away but they eventually get it back when the tide turns again.


Again, great post. Thanks~!

[ananda77]

The SPX 500 Hedge update:

and it seems very likely, considering Friday's price action, that the index will at least challenge the Feb 4 High *1004

...failure at this point would motivate more selling and new Lows ahead

a successful challenge of *1104 would set the stage for the market to mount another challenge with the *1130 level as target

...failure at this point on a Close basis would indicate *1151 as a market top and motivate more selling with new Lows ahead

a successful challenge of *1130 would signal a market which is prepared to challenge the Jan 11 High *1151 with potential to reach a new High with an initial target range *1161/*1167

Warning: the market is at an important junction; if institutional pivot point support is not holding and liquidity remains in contraction with institutional selling increasing -the market is in danger of crashing-

Kind Regards