Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Advancing FX-Trading >>> www.lincolnfx.com: -data point 24 March 2010

www.invetrics.com:- data point 24 March 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 24 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...above resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 24 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 trades moderately lower from yesterday's 19-mth High *1175 and appears to form an inside day signalling trend uncertainty;

-institutions still testing their primary support on the Core Index
-institutional selling ...moderately lower but still within a selling trend most likely with an uptick after today
-NYSE algorithm ...positive but rolling over
-market breadth 1:2 neg -new highs increasing -uptick buying power positive -buying the dips appears ongoing

...todays drive lower appears corrective with potential for another test of March 22 Low *1153 developing; if so, an expected successful defense of *1153 would set the index up for another advance towards the yearly trendline resistance current *1177/higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1185;

...longer term bullish targets:

-longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

...in the near term, a possible trade would be into the direction of how today's inside day will be resolved; any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party;

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 25 March 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 25 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...moving further above resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 25 March 2010:

...yesterdays inside day resolved to the upside and the SPX 500 traded to a new 20-mth High *1181 into the current yearly trendline resistance (weekly) as expected; immediate selling into the new High neutralized some of todays gains, but as long as the index stays above March 22 Low *1153, the market will slowly grind the index higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1193/higher into longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

-institutions still testing their primary support on the Core Index
-institutional selling ...upticked yesterday and will likely to stay in the uptrend after today
-NYSE algorithm ...positive and appears ready to signal another advance
-market breadth close to 2:1 positive -new highs increasing -uptick buying power positive -buying the dips appears ongoing

...any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party;

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 26 March 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 26 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...moving below resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 25 March 2010:

...yesterdays inside day resolved into an outside day after the index collapsed into the Close; the NYSE algorithm is in positive territory moving down; 10-year treasury yield spiked to 3.85% with further upside potential likely and while not at a critical level like above 4%, institutions becoming nervous holding stocks for dividend in a higher yield environment; institutional selling remained in the uptrend with another uptick yesterday

...given the impulsive nature of yesterdays sell-off, a corrective drive down to short term lower support channel current *1153/lower to intermediate lower channel support current *1142 are likely before the market will slowly grind the index higher into the short term upper channel resistance current *1193/higher into longer term upper channel resistance current *1217/*1255

...looking further ahead, if the *1193/*1217/*1255 range coincides with 10-year treasury yields rising to 4% (+), the market will have most likley reached a top from which a deeper potential 20%/38% correction will look like a real deal

...in the meantime, any trading action below yearly weekly channel support *1138 would be an invitation for the bears to party earlier on

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...today, as far as markets are concerned, I am content to take the short risk... amidst bullish sentiment based on a lot of bull**** and grizzly bears turned into gummi bears, and I do agree with David Rosenberg at times like today:

Divid Rosenberg: Looking at the fund flows, there is only one conclusion that can be reached: This market is being driven by pig farmers (program trades. ed.). Retail inflows may have picked up of late, but only fractionally. The focus on the part of the individual investor remains on the fixed-income market, for better or for worse (better from our standpoint, worse from the standpoint of my friend and fellow debater Jim Grant).
Institutional portfolio manager cash ratios are back to the rock bottom levels of around 3½% — where they were back at the market peak in October 2007. The shorts have all but been covered. Foreign investors have been few and far between, based on the latest TICS data. The lack of volume speaks volumes — there are no sellers. Investors of all types have been content to just sit and watch their equity position expand via the price appreciation, but there is scant evidence of any follow-through this year in terms of volume buying.
So, that leaves me with a suspicion that the entities doing the buying are the pig farmers. Who are they pray tell? They are the prop desks at the five large banks. They buy and sell securities, with leverage ... to each other! And, these transactions often occur late in the day or in the futures pit after the market closes. There is no sign of any other buyer out there, including the Fed who has been too busy choking on mortgage backed securities and Maiden Lane assets. To repeat, that is why the volumes have been so low.

What we should be aware of about the pig farmers is that they could, at any time, flick the switch in the other direction. What the “trapped longs” may be forced to do — the ones that have been sitting on their hands and have been waiting for the bear market rally to take their portfolio back to where it was at the peaks — at that point is start to sell. That is when the volume picks up ... and accelerates the downside pressure.

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

David Rosenburg is a super permabear. I can understand his frustration at the moment..we are a cyclic bull market and he is upset. The same happened in 2006 with him when economic theory did not match stockmarket behaviour...I thought he may have learn't something from that as he is a super intelligent guy and Chief economist and strategist but I guess a leopard (bear) can't change his spots...

Oh well... like they say ...Every dog (bear) has their day. Maybe it will be tomorrow

[Phaedrus]

.Every dog (bear) has their day. Maybe it will be tomorrow....

Permabears are bound to get it right, sooner or later - a bit like the stopped clock that shows the right time twice a day!

There are, of course, times when we all really should "beware the Bear". For me, it's when the plot is red. That way, I get to enjoy the good times!

[Ketel One]

Thanks for the update- Good to see the MSI sitting solidly on 1!

[ananda77]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasu...&asset=&ccode=

C overhang ... I'm a little supprised that treasury doesn't hold for a bit longer -YEAH RIGHT...so to speak

...basically the question Rosenberg raises here is 'what factors will determine program trade to change course' and he thinks that

-10-year treasury yields above 4% takes the usual institutional buyers out of the equation
-institutional cash just above 3 % another reason institutions are unlikely buyers
-at some stage the program trade needs to off-load their accumulated expensive junk as volume margin discounts are a bit boring in the longer term
-furthermore 20 billion dollars of net speculative S&P large contracts showed up on last week's COT report (probably nothing to it and something to do with government selling 'C')??

...therefore on one hand the program trade needs sellers >>unlikely if they keep propping the market very low volume figures); on the other hand they need buyers and lots of them; so unless they somehow manage to convince JOE to enter the market -unlikley as JOE has stayed out all the up to here and most likely does not want to jump now- everyone should be happy if a nice correction takes us all into richer waters

...so basically, JOE is needed to finish the cyclical bull in classic 3-wave style -insiders -institutions -public but unless we have a decent enough correction down etc, etc, etc

Kind Regards

[Shaneoz]

Hi Phaedrus,

Just a quick thought on your MSI. Have you done any research on the time that indicator stays at 100%? Looking at it, it looks like there is a reasonable pattern but it may just be an illusion. If you knew the indicator had a run of 100% for 72 days for instance and this was the longest it had run for, well any fractal points of that detail might make for points of interest in the future.

Cheers,

Shane.

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 30 March 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 30 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...closing below resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 30 March 2010:

...the SPX 500 in consolidating mode below the March 25 20-month High *1181 and since the index has had plenty off opportunity to sell down to affirm the *1151/*1142 level and did not, chances are, the market will challenge the *11187/*11201 range leading into Fridays payroll anouncement

...if so, risk lingers for a 'good news' sell the fact Friday or sometime after due to short term extended index condition before resuming a bullish bias with the *1219/*1256 targets in view

-US 10-year T-note:
-Institutional selling:

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards