sharetrader
Page 3 of 191 FirstFirst 12345671353103 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 1906
  1. #21
    Member sharer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    321

    Default

    Aha! Now i'm getting the idea - just an inkling, a slight lifting of the kumo

    Phaedrus: The examples given show the signal strength factor can't be taken as the textbook quotes suggest. It is puzzling - could the correlation even be inverse w.r.t. price chart?
    As to timing, how do these signals generally relate to OBV, do we know yet?

  2. #22
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 14 October 2009-
    Major Resistance 2.7% up where the 2007 Bear Market Trendline meets the 50% Fibbonacci level

    ...Earnings Guide before Market Open:
    Bank of America BAC (first call) -0.07 (year ago) 0.15
    General Electric GE (first call) 0.20 (year ago) 0.45
    Halliburton HAL (first call) 0.26 (year ago) 0.76
    Mattel MAT (first call) 0.63 (year ago) 0.66

    Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 15 October 2009-

    Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 15 October 2009-

    Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
    Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
    NYSE Momentum and Strength

    US Economic Calendar -data point 16 October 2009-
    -U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in Sep, above median 0.1%; cap use 70.5%
    -U. Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 69.4 in Oct, well below med 73 vs 73.5 Sep

    Bond Market -data point 16 October 2009-
    -U.S. TIC net capital inflows rose $10.2 bln in Aug vs -$107.7 bln outflow in Jul
    -U.S. budget deficit set to narrow to -$59.0 bln in Sep (med -$60 bln) vs -$111.4 bln

    Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 16 October 2009-
    David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff): "S&P 500 is now de facto pricing in 4.8% /GDP growth/ed. a few basis points shy of what it was discounting in the summer/fall of 2007. And, backing out the fair-value P/E from the corporate bond market, and yields have been backing up sizeably in recent weeks, the S&P 500 is now pricing in $85 of operating earnings, which we think will be, at best, a 2013 story"

    ...SPX 500 pressured to intraday Low *1082 so far as U.S. stocks pull back following disappointing results from Dow components BofA. GE, and IBM, but the Oct 12 Peak *1079 has not been on the block yet
    ...as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
    ...however, given that institutions have accumulated in a technical down trend over the past few days, the market could establish an uneven spread double top followed by a sharp bearish reversal at this major resistance point
    ...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, trading below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

    SPX 500 Hedge:
    triggered yesterday, but as long as institutions' buy/sell spread remains above zero, the hedge (index spread) is only tilting slightly 'short' so far

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 17-10-2009 at 06:23 AM.

  3. #23
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default

    As mentioned in post #17 - Kumo is thinning on D1 chart which shows and element of slowing.

    Already breaking through on the H1. H4 close to breaking.

    Last edited by arco; 17-10-2009 at 08:20 AM.
    ___________________


    ___________________

  4. #24
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,936

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sharer View Post
    Phaedrus: The examples given show the signal strength factor can't be taken as the textbook quotes suggest. It is puzzling....
    Yes, it is a bit unsettling that some "weak" signals appear to be (and in fact are) better than some "strong" signals. Nevertheless, over the long term all doubt as to their relative merit is removed. Backtesting the Ichimoku system on the SP500 over 10 years or so tells us that following ALL signals would lead to a 25% loss, but by acting on Strong signals ONLY, a 20% gain results. Quite a difference. So, with a lot of bath water thrown out, I guess it is inevitable that a few babies go with it!

    Quote Originally Posted by sharer View Post
    As to timing, how do these signals generally relate to OBV, do we know yet?
    The OBV appears to be of limited usefulness with this Index. It is more helpful when applied to stocks, in my experience.

  5. #25
    Member sharer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    321

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
    Yes, it is a bit unsettling that some "weak" signals appear to be (and in fact are) better than some "strong" signals. Nevertheless, over the long term all doubt as to their relative merit is removed. Backtesting the Ichimoku system on the SP500 over 10 years or so tells us that following ALL signals would lead to a 25% loss, but by acting on Strong signals ONLY, a 20% gain results.
    Phaedrus,it seems then that you now have the answer to your original question:
    "I have seen it stated that "Eliminating the Chikou Span and ignoring weak crossovers enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy." This would mean that signals such as that at (2) would be ignored - a pity, yes? " In other words, "No!" That is, we can tolerate the seemingly lost opportunity of an occasional gain from a "weak" signal in favour of a more likely, but smaller, long term gain from using only the "strong" ones.

    Then we might wonder about the algorithm behind the original chart post which is effectively classifying the SignalStrength into seven categories, because now you have proven that only the "strongest" category is useful.
    In the long term. (the komu descends again ..)

    "Ph: ... with a lot of bath water thrown out, I guess it is inevitable that a few babies go with it! ..."

    LOL. i'm now just waiting for a chance to throw this into a conversation somewhere! Cheers

  6. #26
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 16 October 2009-
    approaching Major Resistance where the 2007 Bear Market Trendline meets the 50% Fibbonacci level

    ...Earnings Guide before Market Open -data point 19 October 2009-
    Hasbro HAS (first call)0.93 (year ago)0.89
    ...Earnings Guide after Market Close -data point 19 October 2009-
    Apple AAPL (first call)1.42 (year ago)1.26

    Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 18 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

    Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 16 October 2009-
    Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
    Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
    NYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)

    US Economic Calendar -data point 19 October 2009-
    NAHB reported its homebulider sentiment index dipped to 18 in October, from 19 in September; the index had been improving since early in the year

    Bond Market -data point 19 October 2009-
    12:58 ET 10-Yr: +01/32..3.408%.. USD/JPY: 90.6950.. EUR/USD: 1.4948 Backed Off: Trade is sleepily sliding in quiet trade into midday with the 3-7-yrs seeing the widest swings since the Fed's denial that their talks with dealers on slowing accommodation meant anything at all. The market got some short coverage but little more on the non-news while curve trades were swung flatter but rebounded fairly easily. The quiet trade has seen a lot of churning back and forth after that initial pop and with little new information to go on and a light calendar on the week, the market is eyeballing stocks. Trade was also getting some bounce from backlash over the Baron's cover story asking if it was rate hike time, which added some drag to prices heading into the day. The 10-yr could get caught in a 3.9% to 3.425% range without some incentive while the curve will push back at the 242.5 level with the 2-10-yr yield spread now 243.5. Supply coming online has been concentrated in the shorter maturities helping add some drag while global bonds remained mixed to lower. The dollar got hit as the index is sniffing around for last week's 75.21 low as rates are seen on hold. The euro has pulled back to near the day's best levels, but may lack the impetus to punch through Thursday's 1.4968 high, while likely to get stuck near 135.50 yen per. The yen continues to skate around the 90.50 to 91.00 area and will also be caught in a information-vacuum without something more interesting than earnings and generic Fed-speak. Vice Kohn has a late engagement (16:30).

    Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 19 October 2009-
    ...with a Close above the Oct 12 Peak *1079 Friday, the SPX 500 successfully defended support and is trading higher based on continued earnings optimism
    …as mantioned last Friday, as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
    ...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, trading below the 50-day MA at *1033 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

    Current Market Comments:
    David Rosenberg (Gluskin/Sheff) ...The Unsustainable Revenue-Less Recovery > To date, an amazing 78% of the S&P 500 companies have thus far beaten consensus estimates. Then again, maybe this is less amazing than meets the eye since the consensus of street analysts have taken such a knife to their estimates that Q3 operating EPS is seen declining 25% from what were already depressed recession profits of a year ago. The WSJ ran with an article stating that because companies are being rewarded by the marketplace to such a great extent for beating their EPS estimates via relentless cost-cutting moves, executives are saying that “they are hesitant to reinvest such profits into their businesses.” This strategy is being deployed by so many firms that it is having a broad based dampening impact on private aggregate demand and hence corporate revenues — enticing firms to take even more costs out of the system; either pricing power/revenues improve, and there was certainly no sign of this in the just-released National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey, or the $80+ of earnings currently embedded in equity market valuation will have to be revisited, revised and reduced. It will be at that point — and the timing is next to impossible, but it is a “when”, not an “if” — that the stock market embarks on its true corrective phase.

    Invetrics Market Commentary ...noticed consistent profit taking action every time a company reported strong earnings last week, e.g., Alcoa (AA: 14.04 -2.23%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 184.37 -2.26%), and IBM (IBM: 121.64 -4.95%). Several ETFs representing major stock market sectors and International markets switched to Short last Friday; if (and only if) the theme of selling the good earnings reports continues next week, we may see the market move lower from here. This will become a certainty if one of the well known high tech companies misses its expected earnings

    Guy M Lerner (Technical Take) ...In a market driven by Dollar devaluation and "liquidity" this is what I would expect: there will be sudden down drafts that should be scooped up rather quickly as long as investor sentiment remains as bullish as it has been.

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 20-10-2009 at 05:14 AM.

  7. #27
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    S&P just failed to get to 1100 earlier .... maybe not today but soon .... and then 1200 before Xmas

  8. #28
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,936

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sharer View Post
    Phaedrus, it seems then that you now have the answer to your original question as to whether ignoring weak crossovers enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy.
    Well, Sharer, I thought so too - until I backtested Ichimoku against the NZSX50 Index since its inception. Acting on all Ichimoku signals regardless of their strength gave a total return of 75% (vs 77% Buy/Hold) If all weak signals were ignored, the return fell to just 32%!

    Quote Originally Posted by sharer View Post
    Then we might wonder about the algorithm behind the original chart post which is effectively classifying the Signal Strength into seven categories, because now you have proven that only the "strongest" category is useful.
    See above!

    Quote Originally Posted by sharer View Post
    The komu descends again ....
    Indeed.

  9. #29
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 19 October 2009-

    ...the monthly SPX 500 indicators signal a new bull market phase, but with the SPX 500 below the 2007 upper bear market resistance line and the up/down trending indicator negative divergent, for a continued bull market condition, the resistance needs to be taken out;

    ...Earnings Guide before Market Open -data point 20 October 2009-
    Pfizer PFE (first call)0.48 (year ago)0.62
    Lockheed LMT (first call)1.83 (year ago)1.92
    DuPont DD (first call)0.33 (year ago)0.56
    Coca-Cola KO (first call)0.82 (year ago)0.83
    Caterpillar CAT (first call)0.06 (year ago)1.39

    ...Earnings Guide after Market Close -data point 20 October 2009-
    Yahoo! YHOO (first call)0.07 (year ago)0.09

    Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals (may adjust at Market Open) -data point 20 October 2009-

    Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 19 October 2009-
    Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows NYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)
    daily SPX 500 ETF Volume Trending

    US Economic Calendar -data point 20 October 2009-
    US PPI SEP (actual) -0.6% (forecast) -0.7% (last) 1.7%
    US PPI Y/Y SEP (actual) -4.6% (forecast) -4.9% (last) -4.3%
    US PPI ex-Food & Energy SEP (actual) -0.1% (forecast) 0.1% (last) 0.2%
    US PPI ex-Food & Energy Y/Y SEP (actual) 1.8% (forecast) 1.9% (last) 2.3%
    US Housing Starts SEP (actual) 0.590M (forecast) 0.615M (last) 0.598M
    US Building Permits SEP (actual) 0.573M (forecast) 0.600M (last) 0.580M
    US Housing Completions SEP (actual) 0,693M (forecast) 0.752M (last) 0.760M

    Stock Market: Day Trader update -data point 20 October 2009-

    …although slightly lower today.,the SPX 500 made it to intraday Low *1086 so far, the Oct 12 Peak *1079 from last Friday still stands; the bearish tone in the market has been building since the Open and decliners outweighed advancers almost 3:1
    … however, as long as trading action stays above *1079 through to a Close, chances are still in play, the market will challenge the May-July-August Highs trendline resistance *1097/*1100 barrier over the next couple of days
    ...failing that zone will leave the market vulnerable to a 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 with the July Low *869 as the target; initially, a violation of SPX 500 *1079 at a Close would indicate a short-term top is in place and trading below the 50-day MA at *1038 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout is indeed underway

    SPX 500 hedge only tilting 'short' for now;
    important trigger points for additonal 'shorts': -Close below*1079/-institutional buy/sell spread below ZERO/-invetrics 'sell' signal

    Current Market Comments -data point 20 October 2009- Brett Steenbarger (Traderfeed -Exploiting the edge from historical market patterns):

    19-October-2009 ...The TICK that is specific to Dow 30 stocks ($TICKI, above) moves much quicker than the NYSE TICK, given the fact that the Dow issues trade frequently and are prominent components of baskets of stocks that are involved in program trading. When we see persistent negative readings in $TICKI, with values of -20 and lower, it suggests that multiple large traders are selling baskets of stocks--a nice short-term gauge of shift in sentiment, in the case of the recent market
    20 October 2009 ...With the morning weakness in stocks, we have moved back into a multiday trading range. We continue to see a somewhat elevated number of 20-day new lows among stocks: over 400 so far today across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE. Note how small cap stocks (IWM; above) have struggled at resistance around 62.50. I continue to view the recent action as part of a topping process that will ultimately lead to a break below the lows of the past several days. Especially on my radar: commodity related energy and raw materials shares, which have been market leaders. Should we get a pullback in commodity markets, perhaps as a result of a dollar bounce, we could see that weigh on stocks as a whole.

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 21-10-2009 at 07:29 AM.

  10. #30
    Member sharer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    321

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
    Well, Sharer, I thought so too - until I backtested Ichimoku against the NZSX50 Index since its inception. Acting on all Ichimoku signals regardless of their strength gave a total return of 75% (vs 77% Buy/Hold) ...
    Interesting discussion Phaedrus. To me your result above is very persuasive.
    (Summarising in case my understanding was defective):
    Using the entire NZSX50 dataset, acting on all Ichimoku signals returned 75%, while not acting on any signal (?=buy&hold) returned 77%.

    I think this can only mean the Ichimoku "method" is proven to be useless.

    Or at least that part of it that outputs those "signals" & their "strength".
    Your observations above & in earlier posts indicate it could be a very expensive mistake to act on that part of the routine.

    Still, some people, seemingly, have found ways to benefit from Ichimoku. In my case just from contemplating Arco's beautiful demonstrations of currency trading possibilities, & Hoop's efforts and examples. None of which i really understand, so far it is mainly an aesthetic experience. Considerable quantities of lucre seem to be at risk, so it still seems worthwhile to simplify the "method" and sift the dross in search of gold dust.

    I wonder how often the "areas of interest" - gray boxes in Arco's recent posts - actually turn out indeed to be places where buy/sell action was required, & whether the eventual results were actually better or worse than a daily coin toss?

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •