Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[Phaedrus]

Have you done any research on the time that the MSI stays at 100%?

No Shane, I haven't. My reasoning is that I'm really not very interested in when, where or for how long the MSI sits at its maximum (or minimum) levels. To know that the market is strong (or weak) is enough for me - exactly how strong or weak is of minor interest, so long as the MSI is clearly positive (or negative). It is at times when the MSI looks to be on the verge of changing from bullish to bearish (or vice-versa) that it gets my full attention.

I have done a lot of backtesting though, on the basis of which I optimised the points at which light green and dark green cut in, raising them both by 0.1. You can see the slight difference between this MSI plot and the one on page 19 (#277). This very minor tweak improved the hit rate, reduced the number of "false positive" light green "buy" signals and increased overall returns. As you would expect, you get an even better hit rate and even fewer "false positives" by waiting for the dark green before "buying", but this improvement in accuracy comes at the cost of markedly lower overall returns.
You can't get something for nothing.

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 31 March 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 31 March 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...closing below resistance line/testing primary support

Trader Update -data point 31 March 2010:

...after the factory orders, the SPX 500 recoverd quickly from the early sell-off following the ADP report and appears back in consolidating mode below the March 25 20-month High *1181; chances are, the market will challenge the *11187/*11201 range late this week

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 5 April 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 5 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...closing below resistance line/testing primary support on Thursday

Trader Update -data point 5 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 leaving the March 25 High *1181 behind based on firm support and the index appears on its way for the *1200-test near term;

-institutional selling appears to fade away for now
-10 year treasury note just a tick belwo 4%
-equity only p/c ration a very low 0.54
-more than 91% SPX 500 stocks trade above the 50-day MA

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

Long Term: THE BEAR

New 18 month high.......

[Jay]

Appreciate the updates Phaedrus

[ananda77]

Nie to see US action. Opened down and then simply climbed back into positive territory. Who'd want to be a shorter with the Bulls ruling?

Hi Belgarion...and just as you thought to be safe...have to say personally was not in the Phaedrus camp (just do not get it what's so funny about this indicator -any old lagger will do) since the Russell 2000 April 6 High *702.9 (701.5 exact), but its far too early to call in a trend reversal, rather -best guess and positioned accordingly-

-SPX 500 long in the *1149/1152 range or

-Russell 2000 short in the *712/*733 range

with anything in between uninterestingly nowhere

...since I have three serious comittments, its becoming very difficult to update in the morning without missing breakfast

Kind Regards

and Long Term: THE BEAR (regardless)

[beacon]

...since I have three serious comittments, its becoming very difficult to update in the morning without missing breakfast

Appreciate your committment to sharing your thoughts as well as the effort you put in....

[ananda77]

Thank You, Beacon

...the leading Russell 2000 index *701/*703 range offered a clear and low risk 'shorting opportunity' which is still in play; however, other major US indexes are still lagging behind and still have a way to trend up before their major potential turning point;
...watch out for the major indexes to arrive at their potentially major turning points IN SYNC

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

www.invetrics.com:- data point 9 April 2010

(may adjust at market Open)

www.stocktiming.com: -data point 9 April 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding ...still testing primary support/hesitant for a decisive move

Trader Update -data point 9 April 2010:

...the SPX 500 established a new 18-month High *1192 with no follow through action at present; institutional selling ticking up slightly and market internals indicating a mixed market

... as a result there is risk for a shallow pullback to affirm the early August *1175/*1184 Congestion once more early next week before targeting higher into channel resistance ranging in the *1205/*1226/(ultimately *1266) area

Long Term: THE BEAR

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

The Coming European Debt Wars
EU Countries sinking into Depression

by Prof. Michael Hudson http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=18545

VIDEO: William Engdahl: Covert Economic Warfare: "The Gods of Money"
US Will Not Recover for at Least 15 Years

by F. William Engdahl http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=18534

Kind Regards