Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[arco]

.
On lower time-frames charts I occasionally use a modified Chikou line. Here for interest I have added it to the H1 chart. It also gave an additional warning signal. (Red circle/spot).

[ananda77]

Hello Ananda I mentioned a weakening showing in the charts a few days ago, but for actual real time entry the H1 time-frame gave various warning signals starting 23 hours prior (to the long black candle). (Chart attached). The 30M chart gave warnings about 27 hrs prior. 'A' denotes the candle where bearish Kumo kicked in. (It was already bearish on the 30m as you can see on the 2nd chart)

...quite tricky to understand the Ichimoku system with the necessary switching between time frames, but yes, I clearly remember thinking a couple of days ago, how early you mentioned a weakening of trading conditions in the market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 22 October 2009-

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 21 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 22 October 2009-

Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level ...institutional 'sell' continues to trend down for now
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength (Momentum close-up)...breaking down below support for now -observe the 100-level-

US Economic Calendar -data point 22 October 2009-
Initial Claims 10/17: actual (+11k) 531k (forecast) 525K (prior) 514K
Continuing Claims 10/10: actual 5923K (forecast) 5970K (prior) 5992K
Leading Indicators Sep: actual +1% (forecast) 1.0% (prior) 0.6%
FHFA Housing Price Index Aug: actual -0.3% (forecast) 0.3% (prior) 0.3%

Stock Market -data point 23 October 2009-
...after yesterdays bearish key reversal day, SPX 500 penetrated *1079 and dived to intraday Low *1074 before stabilizing for now; market direction so far remains neutral to slight bullish as some buying has occurred around the support area
...the fact of yesterdays' “quadruple” outside-down day in the DJ Wilshire 5000 (source: Elliot Wave Int.) coupled with dwindling momentum should contain the current counter advance between the *1084/*1091 congestion range
...failing that range, risk of a further sharp sell-off to the 50-day MA *1041initially increases substantially and looking further ahead, taking out *1041 would confirm a larger bearish shakeout during most of Q4 targeting a retest of the July low at 869 is indeed underway

SPX 500 Hedge
...currently 'slight short tilt' with tight downside cover

Long Term: THE BEAR ...trying to inflate the debt is like a monkey trying to outrun the lion http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/...t-of-debt.html

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Arco........Thanking you for your S&P 500 Ichimoku input...hope it continues.

I'm not sure whether I should be writing this post on this thread or the Ichimoku thread in the Forex section, but here goes...

Over the years I have occasionally observed some spooky results published by the media about Japanese day traders. Even some Japanese long term Investors predicting future outcomes have become uncannily true against contrary traditional methods. This is what got me looking into Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in the first place...(about the time of uncomfortable bearish feelings at the height of the August 2007 Bull market).... but I only obtained a basic understanding. Finding information of the finer working points is difficult, as is the lack of "available time" to study it more deeply.
However it amazes me how I always instinctively come back to my basic Ichimoku Kinko Hyo when I sense a change is in the air. What is the amazing part is I don't know why I do it as I'm not fully convinced it is superior over other systems.

Arco ...these working examples with explanations you have posted has helped me to understand more deeply the intricate workings of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo...thanks for that.

A question if you don't mind......Some Ichi traders combine other traditional TA tools into there Ichimoku models, such as Traditional Support/Resistance lines. Do you personally refer/combine traditional methods either consciously or otherwise when using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo?

[arco]

Short TF gave a good signal for 12+



Hoop
You can add whatever other techniques help you to find trades, but everything is covered with the system. Occasionally I might spot a H&S formation which I would consider along with the Ichi chart, etc. S&R can be defined using Chikou span (pivot) points, with Kumo giving another edge to S/R.

I'm always conscious of blocking Ananda's thread with off topic posts, so in respect of his flow it may be more suitable to direct your off topic questions to me on the Ichi thread over on FX

regards - arco

[ananda77]

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 22 October 2009-

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 23 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)[center][center]

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 22 October 2009-

Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength (Momentum close-up)
NYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 23 October 2009-
Existing Home Sales actual 5.51M (forecast) 5.45M (prior) 5.1M

Stock Market -data point 23 October 2009-
...the SPX 500 has failed at or just below this week's *1101 High three times in the past five days but downticks have yet to breach key support levels; the fact, the market hasn't been able to extend higher on good earnings data coupled with obvious bearish divergences in momentum is a warning that a deeper bearish turn is imminent
...however, a sustained penetration of the Oct 13 Low *1067 is needed for a follow through a key test of the 50-day MA at *1041 initially;
...but unless *1067 support is broken chances for a brief advance to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break at *1122 before peaking is still very much in play
...looking further out, a penetration of *1041 would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout that should retest the July Low *869 is indeed underway
...stay current short

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[arco]

Up to +16 overnight using signals from 15m/30m TF.

[ananda77]

arco: please explain a bit more

...todays' action confirmed again a highly volatile market; reason:
-strength and liquidity still in positive territory

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 23 October 2009 (US Eastern Time)-

...although Invetrics went 'long', just could not follow the beat and stayed 'slight short tilt' (but not until loosing 4 ticks)
...guess the market will stay highly volatile until either the upside is resolved as a failed test of bear market resistance line *1122 or breaks down below *1067; in any case better ride a more neutral (slight short tilt) in the hedge

Kind Regards

[peat]

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/th...bounds-to-1999

[arco]

arco: please explain a bit more

Kind Regards

30m chart - Chikou Span breaks plot, tests plot ((S=R) and breaks through again on Dark Cloud Cover below 1095 potential resistance area with KS/TS forming crossed straight-line. Further confirmation with 2 elements crossed over and Evening Star pattern on 15m.

hope that helps

arco