Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

**arco** · 26-10-2009, 09:25 AM

Tonights apparent potential (until we can judge what the mood looks like at the open)

**arco** · 26-10-2009, 09:17 PM

Update

Earlier post

**arco** · 26-10-2009, 10:03 PM

If we see a confirmed reversal signal around the bearish Kumo this could be the result.

**ananda77** · 27-10-2009, 08:00 AM

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 26 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 23 October 2009-

...the upper bear market resistance line has to be taken out for a Bull Market condition to hold; in the meantime, current bearish market momentum taking bites at the current bull market conditions

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 23 October 2009-

Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level

Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows

NYSE Momentum and Strength (close-up)

NYSE Down Volume

US Economic Calendar -data point 26 October 2009-
-empty-

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 26 October 2009-
...SPX 500 trading started the day on a bullish note briefly before falling back into negative territory marking the 4th time in a week that the 1001/*1092 level could not be sustainably penetraded; the fact that the market hasn't been able to extend higher on good earnings data together with dwindling momentum warns of an imminent deeper bearish reversal
...waiting for today's Close, a sustained penetration of the Oct 13 Low *1067 would invite a key test of the 50-day moving avg at *1041 initially
...on the other hand, until *1067 support is broken a brief advance to challenge the 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 Break at *1122 is still a possibility
...looking further out, taking out *1041 on a Close basis would confirm that a larger bearish shakeout that should retest the July Low *869 is indeed underway

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 26 October 2009-

bullish >*1104 Close; bearish <*1070 Close; before Market Open -'slight short tilt' with 'neutral bias' >*1092 intraday

... a sustained penetration of the Oct 13 Low *1067 would invite a key test of the 50-day moving avg at *1041 initially -waiting for the Close- (on a cautious note: the Trin has steadily increased over the trading session and stands now at 2.11 -considered very bearish and could be taken by traders as contra-indicative; therefore, it is prudent to wait for the Close to add to 'short' positions

Market Comentary -data point 26 October 2009-
David Rosenberg: David Rosenberg: The financials sagged 1.6% on Friday and have done squat now for 5½ weeks. Just as the economists are taking their housing numbers higher, in classic “sell the fact” mode, the S&P Homebuilding index just closed down 18% from the mid-September high. That almost classifies, dare we say, as a … bear market!
Oh yes — this is surely a sign that the credit crunch is behind us. Regulators closed seven more regional banks last Friday, bringing the tally for the year to 106. There have been more bank failures this year than in the past 15 years combined, and the only reason why the big boys never followed suit was because the government guaranteed all their debt and then allowed them to hide their losses by switching to mark-to-model accounting from mark-to-market. Believe us when we tell you that even the most renowned experts could not tell you what is really sitting on the balance sheets of these large U.S. banks — but there is limited downside risk because Uncle Sam has deemed them all to be ‘too big to fail’. Those who were investors in American United Bank, well, we are sorry to have to tell you that you were involved in an institution that was small enough to close down

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

**arco** · 27-10-2009, 09:00 AM

Morning All

Overnight Result (projected chart from yesterday evening also shown below).

Reversal pattern in the grey zone as expected and result as per original chart.

Max circa +27

Current chart

Chart below posted 11 hrs ago
Quote "If we see a confirmed reversal signal around the bearish Kumo this could be the result."

**winner69** · 27-10-2009, 11:18 AM

The fear factor in VIX spikes 11% sounds dreadful and the end of the world ... but still below 25 .... and remember that the VIX at implies that punters are expecting the S&P500 to mover UP or Down 7% in the next 30 days

From the Business Spectator

SCOREBOARD: Heightened fears

With the VIX up 11 per cent overnight it seems punters have become more skittish. There was little data out overnight to exacerbate that – but then maybe that was the problem. It seems we need constant reassurance the economy is actually recovering and without that, our primal fears takeover.

Next thing you know the S&P500 is down 1.2 per cent (1066). Falls were broad-based although financials in particular were weak after an analyst (Bove) downgraded a number of banks in the sector citing expected loan losses. He also suggested that the government wants BofA to raise $US45 billion in new capital.

But otherwise the Dow was off 104 pts to 9867, the Nasdaq fell 0.6 per cent (2141) while the SPI dropped 0.8 per cent (4801). Don’t believe the hype though, I think there is something like 60 per cent of the S&P to report still and current trends are fantastic i.e. 80 per cent or so reporting better-than-expected earnings.

For last night, the flow-on from rising risk aversion was a stronger Greenback and weaker commodities. The Australian dollar fell just under 1 US cent to 0.9151, EUR was off over a big figure to 1.4867, while the yen was at 92.23 from 91.8. Sterling was a touch stronger but that’s not surprising after falling three big ones on Friday.

This had the impact of seeing some fairly broad-based falls in the commodity space. Oil on Nymex was off 2.3 per cent ($US78.6), natural gas fell over 5 per cent while gold dropped $US15 to $US1039. Base metals were generally lower (copper down 0.6 per cent, nickel down 1.6 per cent) but zinc was up 2.4 per cent.

You’d think, after all that, US treasuries would have rallied – but no. The spectre of $US123 billion of issuance this week seems too heavy. In fact that was kicked off last night with $US7 billion of re-opened 5-year TIPS. Attracting, as you’d expect, good bidding and indirect interest. At the close though, the 2-year yield was up 1bps to 1.03 per cent, the 5-year was 5bps higher at 2.5 per cent while the 10-year was up 7bps to 3.56 per cent – all on average volumes through Brokertec. Aussie futures followed suit, the 3s down 2 ticks to 94.55, while the 10s fell 5 ticks to 94.21.

Very little in Australia or NZ today. Consumer confidence at 1pm for the kiwis about sums it up. Tonight, the Conference Board publishes the October consumer confidence report. This is accompanied by the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity report (October) and the S&P Case Shiller house price index (August).