Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 November 2010-

...SPX 500 October 27 Low *1172 = inflection point positive/negative bias

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Remember Rosenberg is a permabear similar status to Prechter Roubini. etc...If you read only their columns you will become depressed paranoid and beleive everything is one gigantic conspiracy. I have trouble trying to find happy news from these guys....their followers would have lost heaps of money if they followed these guys to the letter.

We need balanced articles to make good decisions ..not read only those articles that fit ones emotional mood of the day.

The banking system is never fair as they are a lagging component in the economic system...

Ok... I do read these permabear articles as well as the over the top bull (sh1T) ones as well.

This video the dedicated Rosenberg followers will enjoy...the video clip (13 August) shows the CNBC commentators do not hold Rosenberg in very high regard as they rubbished him with his comments that US is getting deeper in the economic poo and QE2 will happen before the end of the year as well as the 10yr TNotes falling back to 2% the Dec2008 lows.

He has recently been proven right about QE2.
For the record the chart below shows where we were yesterday what are the chances of Tnotes falling to Dec 2008 bottom??? Is the chart showing a possible inverted H&S formation in progress??

[winner69]

Nothing unusuak about this recovery .... just a run of the mill one really ... boring as

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20101105.htm?T

[Phaedrus]

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 05 November 2010-

U.S. consumer credit bounced $2.15 bln in Sep, above med; 1st rise in 8-months
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 151k in Oct, above median +62k; jobless rate 9.6%

...the SPX 500 finally eclipsed the April High *1220 but in typical weekend fashion stalled *1227 to spent the balance of the day consolidating just above *1220

...although the consolidation bias around the *1220 mark may linger for a while, the market will likely follow through higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...on the flipside, October 27 Low *1172, current inflection point positive/negative bias

thoughts:

-Dow up 75% from 2009 Low and closed at best level since September 8 2008
equity wealth effect alive and well -for now-

-busiest period in two months for new corporate issuance

-USD at new lows = goodies for foreign-derived coporate earnings and export competitiveness

-Commodity prices on fire

-30-year long bond rate up and TIPS market indicating heightened inflation expectation

The Fed may be successful at reflating asset values as it did with the tech mania in the late 1990s and again in the housing bubble in the last cycle

However, Fed-led asset cycles end in tears, and few manage to get out early enough because greed is an emotion that may go comatose in a brutal bear market but it never fully expires

Whatever tools the Fed has at its disposal are very blunt ones when it comes to addressing the deep-rooted structural problems:

-stretched personal balance sheets

-excessive housing supply

-over-regulation

-uncertain health care and taxation costs in the future

-chronic unemployment

...but as the saying goes: no worries, she'll be right mate

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...www.stocktiming.com: -data point 05 November 2009-

...Institutional Core Holding

-1.59% to go to the April 2010 High

Trader Update -data point 05 November 2010-

...Long Term Fed and Foreign Liquidity inflows

-proprietary traders accumulated for the 7th. Week but accumulation appears to reach a plateau as the latest level is barely above last weeks (no chart shown)

...bullish sentiment reigns with a high degree of complacency towards any downside potential, but the markets are dangerously over-extended

-can the market tune up along the 4 STD Bollinger and is this time different? furthermore, for Fibonnacci interested, SPX 500 *1128 = 61.8% retrace level

...as a result: fully invested portfolio 50% protected -and trigger-happy-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 08 November 2010-

...the SPX 500 continues to consolidate around the *1210/*1220 mark and may linger for a while, but the market will likely follow through higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...on the flipside, October 27 Low *1172, current inflection point positive/negative bias

UNBELIEVABLE ARROGANCE!

INTERVIEW WITH GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHÄUBLE

'The US Has Lived on Borrowed Money for Too Long'

In an interview with SPIEGEL, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, 68, criticizes US calls for Germany to reduce exports, outlines his plans for an insolvency framework for indebted European nations and the emphasizes the significance of the German-French axis for Europe.

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...the Fed, has to bolster trhe economy by printing money.

Hi Belgarion

...the 600B does stuff all to bolster the economy (to really fill the output gap -trillions are needed)

because it just sits as excess reserves in the banks since no one is borrowing at present. The Fed of course hopes, that excess liquidity finds its way into the markets and everyone will benefit in terms of the wealth effect

...once the wealth effect takes hold, it is hoped, that people 'feel rich' and start looking at borrowing again -only then will the 600B have an effect on the economy (fractional reserve system 101)-

...so as a result, the banks and the Fed have no choice but to be the biggest players in the market;

people should by now be aware of the Feds short sighted cycle strategies as they have ALWAYS ended in tears for the majority, while those driving the markets (proprietary traders and the Fed) are able to cream off the top

...the real problem is that the Fed has absolute power over the printing press (forget those diddely left/right politicians of every colour and race) and the 600B need to go into the banks first, who increase debt levels and charge interest (with a twist this time in that a 'wealth effect' needs to be created)

...as an alternative, if government would have absolute power, the 600B would go straight into peoples bank accounts to be spend with a resulting immediate effect on the economy (see China -they humming)

DO NOT VOTE unless 'get rid of the CB' is the main agenda -there will be less unneccessary competition, extortion, exploitation, corruption, etc.etc.etc...

Kind Regards

Trader update -data point 08 November 2010-

...re markets: because of the 'wealth effect' creation, the markets need to stay pumped and the only reason for a correction is if there is not enough supply

...one indicator that tells the demand/supply story is of course the % SPX 500 stocks above the 50_100_200-day MA

...time frame:

Fed's Fisher: Fed will be will be "monetizing the debt" for next 8-months
Fed' Bullard: asset purchases will have conventional policy effect, 6-12 mth lag

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 09 November 2010-

...the SPX continues to drift sideways-to-lower in a consolidation mode below the November 5 High 1227. Chances sre, the market needs to see a bounce off the *1200/*1209 level before moving higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...key support remains the October 27 Low *1172

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 10 November 2010-

...as outlined in yesterdays update, the SPX 500 briefly tested earlier trendline resistance November 3 High *1200 with an intraday Low *1204

...the index appears to make headway in late action, but to be sure, based on mixed market internals today, risk still lingers for another test of *1200 before heading higher into the *1250 level with potential to reach out to the August 2008 High *1313

...key support remains the October 27 Low *1172

Kind Regards