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Originally Posted by belgarion
Hoops answer:.......minor correction (10%ish) and may last a few months
This period of time usually clobbers the late investor comers harshly who up to now have resisted entering the market thinking the worst is still to happen and have recently found the courage to enter because they can't stand it any longer seeing the party carrying on without them.
Simon Maierhofer's article is emotional using the Titanic example and he has fallen into the same Shiller annualised P/ERatio chart trap as many other uninformed article writers trying to dramatise that all is rotten in the investment world.
NOTE:-Shiller Annualised PE Ratio is at the moment running at 19.3 (as at 30 Sept 2009) NOT 143
Sure... you can use the simple PE Ratio and chart it accordingly, but it turns out with peaks and troughs everywhere and looks like a seismograph recording an earthquake...hence the chart is useless..that is why Shiller devised a formula method.
To read about whats happening with PE ratios with the S&P500 index read the Crestmont Research paper (updated 30th Sept 2009) here and throw that other bullsh1t article in the bin where it belongs
Sorry Bel if this post came across rather strong..not aimed at you ..aimed at the low quality media drivel which suck people into believing.
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Another good freebee TA article courtesy of MarketWatch,
Technical Indicator Article
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Time for an update
Some time ago when I mentioned a potential H&S forming
NOW....................we're getting there
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Its in the here and now
Originally Posted by belgarion
I'm picking a 5-7% "correction" and very soon.
Methinks we are already in this impending correction you see. India is down 8% already, SPX approx 4%, EuroStoxx 50 approx 5%, Aussie nearing 4% etc from recent highs. japan, china and russia recently had their corrections, and are rebounding (eg Japan has recovered to half of its near 15% fall from recent grace). 860 may be exceptional value, and I would love to buy some US stocks at that point, but I suspect Ben is in no mood to let SPX get anywhere near there ...
Liked your links Hoop. Like you I was laughing at the scare mongerer talking about SPX PE being 143. And to think these people publish their uninformed crap with such abandon...
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Originally Posted by beacon
860 may be exceptional value, and I would love to buy some US stocks at that point, but I suspect Ben is in no mood to let SPX get anywhere near there ...
...basically agree that Institutions would LOVE to see *860/*870, the SPX 500 'fair value level' and think, institutional investors will drive the market there; it will be a well supported level from where the market will most likely start another leg to a new recovery High;
Kind Regards
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Junior Member
Ananda77
You will very rarely see me post simply because I am a novice and learning. (the hard way I might add). I look forward to your posts daily and am indeed learning.
I notice that around the world almost all indicies have sold off which indicates a correction (or "other") maybe underway. However, although the US hasn't opened yet, I wonder why their indicies haven't really begun to sell off yet? Surely, it won't wait until market to open. This could be a ridiculous question but I do think it seem strange since most other markets have broken yesterday's lows already.
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It certainly looks like the market wants to fall, but, I can remember feeling like this about 7 times since March! The old wall of worry I guess.
For the record, I've recently been taking some chips off the table (complex investment strategy that led to this decision - "because I can" ) but am loathe to fall in love with any one thesis for what may happen next.
I *am* concerned to hear a few people I know suddenly talking about making "easy money" in the sharemarket, including first time investors and people who have been out of the market for ages and just re-entered.
However, I still see many shares I consider reasonably priced, BUT, it isn't lost on me that my major error during the 2007-2008 period was holding onto a few shares on the basis of "reasonable price" then watching them get even more so!
The US GDP number tomorrow - and the market response to it - will be most instructive.
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Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and annoys the pig.
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