Paragon Care Ltd ("PGC") - Healthcare upside!!

[steve fleming]

So 5 million options underwritten out of 14.7 million. Positive cash-flow for Quarterly. Re $3.7 million t/o. Sales still soft. Expectations with tenders and "Pipelines" and improvement ,talking it up blah,blah. In the balance re conversion for some?

Pretty much summed up my thoughts re conversion at the moment.

PGC needs scale (given its rather lowish margins) - and they need the big government contracts to give them the big revenue uplifts. They have a pretty good track record at securing some big tenders, so it comes down to whether you believe the directors that this is just a short term slow down in government health spending.

Even if there is a pick up, its not going to be reflected until the FY13 accounts which is a fair way away...so a fair bit of risk, in the short term at least.

I'm thinking I will be comfortable with probably converting half of my options, which, given the risk, will not over expose me in terms of my portfolio weighting

[steve fleming]

Budget brings small cap winners and losers


Brendon Lau15 May 2013


Read more at Eureka Report: http://www.eurekareport.com.au/artic...#ixzz2TQ3OC0MD

I’ll start with some winners, even though identifying these stocks is like trying to find loose change behind the dresser: there are precious few, and those you find are generally not material beneficiaries, with the government wielding an axe to spending to plug a gaping $18 billion budget hole.

National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS)

However, the grin on the face of Paragon Care’s (PGC) chief executive, Mark Simari, was a giveaway.The company is arguably the best placed Australian listed company to benefit from the fully funded $14.3 billion National Disability Insurance Scheme, as Simari suspects the scheme will drive demand for the company’s medical equipment, such as wheelchairs, shower trolleys and home care beds and mattresses.“We will benefit materially from the NDIS,” he said. “We currently supply equipment [to families] through the Department of Human Services, and the $1 million to $2 million [revenue we get from this business] we think might grow to $2 million to $4 million.”The federal budget is the second tailwind for Paragon Care. The Victorian state budget (released last week) also put the company in the winner’s circle.The Victorian government reaffirmed its commitment to build the Bendigo Hospital and the Monash Children’s Hospital, and has undertaken a number of new regional medical facility initiatives.Simari believes the company will hit the top end of its 2012-13 revenue guidance. Paragon Health is forecasting full-year revenue of between $16 million and $17 million compared with last year’s $15.8 million, and net profit of $700,000 to $1.2 million versus a loss of $100,000 in 2011-12.This puts the stock on an attractive price/earnings multiple of around nine times for the current year, which is three times below other global hospital equipment providers.The company has undertaken a cost cutting drive, which helped it post a 164.7% surge in net profit to $564,000 for the December half, although sales dipped 7.1% to $9.2 million.The $9.7 million market cap stock closed flat at 30 cents on Tuesday.

Read more at Eureka Report: http://www.eurekareport.com.au/artic...#ixzz2TQ300zMZ

[steve fleming]

The lumpiness in revenues in a constrained CAPEX environment is a real problem for PGC.

Unless it is a typo, then this statement from the company runs completely counter to what I was expecting:

"As the company has matured with additional acquisitions exposed to the health and aged care sector, the more monthly revenue volatility we are experiencing within each financial year."

[Joshuatree]

Yes bit of a faux pa and literally hundreds of companies on the ASX promising a better 2nd half!!

Margins higher

"Our EBIT and NPAT results for the half largely reflect affixed cost base that has absorbed considerable investment into PGC's future of which benefits are yet to be reflected in the rev and earnings lines"

"The acquisition(of LR Instruments) will have a two fold impact on PGC. It will nearly double the EBITDA of Paragon and assist in evening out the lumpy nature of Paragons's legacy business given its largely constant rev over the whole year." edited slightly

cash flow deficit of $627k with 7 good (yeah right reasons why

Be great when/if they throw out the lumpy mattress of operations and buy a new kingsize super coil performance one.
Still on my watch list. If the big mkt correction arrives may enter at a lower price.

[percy]

I think we need to look at PGC's business and compare it to EBO [NZ] and CAJ [AX].
CAJ. Have hundreds of people every day getting an Xrays/scans,so cash flow is constant.
EBO,Are supplying pharmacies and hospitals with 1000s of items everyday,so cash flow is fantastic.
PGC,Have to quote to supply beds and equipment,so rely more on "one off" big orders,and few daily orders,so stock levels and cash flows are lumpy.

[Joshuatree]

Cheers Percy. Im noticing a lot of first half results on ASX under delivering and (over?) promising that the 2nd half will make up for it and full year guidance will be met. Bit of a leap of faith at the mo that these will be met with margins and spending down etc, sign of the times? Just my observations and may well be exaggerating but it seems like a lot in this basket.

[noodles]

PGC have recently acquired another company using debt. As part of the announcement, they highlighted that "Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.25x on an annualised basis". Their current Net Debt is $5mill. Therefore their EBITDA=$4mill. I have estimated the "ITDA" to calculate NPAT

	FY15
EBITDA	4,000
DA	300
Interest	500
Tax	896
NPAT	2,304
eps	0.0353
pe	9.62

Now as Percy has highlighted above, he does not like the business as much as his beloved EBO. PGC certainly does not have the same track record of EBO and you could argue earnings are not of such high quality as they are lumpy. But EBO does not have a PE<10 and given it's size will find it hard to grow earnings at the same rate of PGC.

I look for GAARP(Growth at a reasonable price). PGC fits the bill for me.

DISC: Holding PGC. Waiting for the next catalyst to buy EBO.

[percy]

Noodles thanks for your analysis of future earnings.
The acquisition of Scanmedics I view as very positive for three reasons.
1] Scanmedics products will fit and add to Paragons product range.
2]Scanmedics acquisition takes Paragon Care more into distribution rather than manufacturing.
3]Scanmedics being NSW based will give Paragon Care a beach-head to supply NSW from,and Paragon's Victoria base will give Scanmedics better distribution to Victoria.

[steve fleming]

Hi Percy

Also probably worth checking out LHC, in kind of the same sort of space (high end medical device distribution)
Good divi (6% approx) and earnings growth (high single digits organic)

Both PGC and LHC subject to falling USD headwinds though (LHC: 25% of costs are in USD)

[Westboy]

Hi Percy

Also probably worth checking out LHC, in kind of the same sort of space (high end medical device distribution)
Good divi (6% approx) and earnings growth (high single digits organic)

Both PGC and LHC subject to falling USD headwinds though (LHC: 25% of costs are in USD)

I asked $us/$a exchange rate question to a substantial shareholder today.

PGC is hedged so should be OK, plus after hedges unwind costs can be passed on as all competitors are in the same boat.

I don't think this is a very good business as it has a very high working capital requirement and they are totally crazy to pay a dividend. That said, It should go up over the next few months IMHO.

Cheers