Paragon Care Ltd ("PGC") - Healthcare upside!!

[percy]

Just found the most in depth micro cap broker report I've ever seen.

http://sp2.actemarketing.com/CampRes...45W/1/text.pdf

I think director Shane Tanner must have read the report as he has been buying more shares on market.Thataboy!!!

[buns]

After skimming through that PDF, I cannot see what target price the Gordon Capital people have put on it, anybody lend me some glasses?

Yep the report is more of an investor presentation isn't it? And a bloody good one at that.

It talks about PGC's market and industry more than picking apart the value of PGC itself.

The section on future possible capital raisings, and possible capital structure was exactly what I was pondering. I got to the point where I figured its not worth researching unless you are a ST holder as a small company that is going to grow via acquisition will have an un predictable/choppy cap structure until settled on a asset base. The NPAT turnaround is great, but won't be enough to go shopping with (unless your RYM and do it slowly).

I think you just need to be confident in PGC acquiring the right assets and the right price and that this strategy will work in this growing market. The preso introduces all of this, and gives that confidence.

Giving a decent SP valuation on this would be tricky unless you really know the level of fragmentation in the healthcare market. So I understand this vague ‘more than now’ valuation.

This I would like to know, how many more distribution companies can PGC acquire? Same goes for the aged services division (if you can call it that at 10%), this division I like a lot but really don’t know how they grow it easily. As they have stated acquisitions aren’t coming easy, and I can’t see that changing as the very nature of this business has lots of IP attached. I think PGC either needs to create some more services not so easily to replicate, or build a growing client base with their current ones and sell it to a developed aged care business. If they wait too long I don’t see why a large retirement services company with way more resources can’t take control, and beat PGC at its own scale game.

[steve fleming]

So I see PGCOA touched 0.026 today!

Very happy that i accumulated millions of these at between 0.006 and 0.009 over the last few years.

Sometimes i think my patience is my most valuable asset!!!

[Corporate]

So I see PGCOA touched 0.026 today!

Very happy that i accumulated millions of these at between 0.006 and 0.009 over the last few years.

Sometimes i think my patience is my most valuable asset!!!

Well done Steve. Can I ask, how do you go about finding your stocks?

[steve fleming]

Well done Steve. Can I ask, how do you go about finding your stocks?

No rocket science really.

I do a lot of searching by various criteria, ( ie http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...er-than-10m%29 ) focusing on market caps under $10/$20 mil / i follow certain directors/shareholders, and i just try and read as many company annoucements as I can.

I like to think that i have built up my skills and knowledge and market intuition to a level that i back myself in relation to opportunities in the market that others are not willing to take. Sometimes it takes me weeks or months to buy into one stock, and there may not be any one else buying, but i know it will eventually re-rate.

[shasta]

No rocket science really.

I do a lot of searching by various criteria, ( ie http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...er-than-10m%29 ) focusing on market caps under $10/$20 mil / i follow certain directors/shareholders, and i just try and read as many company annoucements as I can.

I like to think that i have built up my skills and knowledge and market intuition to a level that i back myself in relation to opportunities in the market that others are not willing to take. Sometimes it takes me weeks or months to buy into one stock, and there may not be any one else buying, but i know it will eventually re-rate.

They are no short cuts just research, research, & more research!

[buns]

Paragon's at it again

Acquiring 100% of GM Medical at $1.85m. Sizeable acquisition compared to EV. From the blurb it sounds like they are the goods, however the truth is in the pudding – I want to see the EBITDA contribution.

"GM Medical has been designing, developing and supplying world class medical products to the Australian acute and aged care market for over 9 years and we are delighted to have GM Medical join the Paragon Care group of healthcare companies.”

Also there is a cost from dilution here - Michael Rice’s shares will be issued at a nice 12.5% discount to today’s SP

[percy]

Paragon's at it again

Acquiring 100% of GM Medical at $1.85m. Sizeable acquisition compared to EV. From the blurb it sounds like they are the goods, however the truth is in the punch – I want to see the EBITDA contribution.

"GM Medical has been designing, developing and supplying world class medical products to the Australian acute and aged care market for over 9 years and we are delighted to have GM Medical join the Paragon Care group of healthcare companies.”

Also there is a cost from dilution here - Michael Rice’s shares will be issued at a nice 12.5% discount to today’s SP

I think it is an easy bolt on for PGC's Axis health, who I note are already a distributor for GM Medical.No surprises there as they will know the business.

[buns]

Wow!

Huge win! $1.45m of 'value' - I'm not sure on the Length of this contract but I think it’s now safe to assume FY12 EBITDA will Double FY11's (looking like $1 to 1.2m in total), with NPAT growing even more.

That is an EV/EBITDA of not much over 3. That doesn’t factor in the potential for other tenders or value from acquisitions.

Good buying right now.

[percy]

Wow!

Huge win! $1.45m of 'value' - I'm not sure on the Length of this contract but I think it’s now safe to assume FY12 EBITDA will Double FY11's (looking like $1m in total), with NPAT growing even more.

That is an EV/EBITDA of not much over 3. That doesn’t factor in the potential for other tenders or value from acquisitions.

Good buying right now.

Very positive and I agree FY12 looking very good.