SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

**Nasi Goreng** · 21-03-2018, 09:21 AM

Great result. They do say the first half result is likely to be better than 2nd half... That is in the presentation, not the announcement so that did taper my excitement just a little. Happy holder.

**minimoke** · 21-03-2018, 09:31 AM

Also worth mentioning "

Total Net Debt for H1 FY18 was $49.7 million, a substantial reduction from

$147 million at the same time in FY17.

**winner69** · 21-03-2018, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by minimoke

Fonterra up as well. All rosy in Milk Land

Fonterra seemed to be down ...quite a lot

**sb9** · 21-03-2018, 09:36 AM

Originally Posted by JeremyALD

Massive result. SP up to $10 I'd say

Massive result and these are my back of envelope calculation for sp. They've done NPAT $40.7mln for FH and have assumed they would do $50mln NPAT for SH (slightly higher growth). This gives us an annual NPAT of $90.7mln and on 179,223,028 shares on issue that equates to an EPS of 50.6c. And on a forward PE of 22, that would equate to price of $11.13 in 6 months time.

I Would say $10 is immediate short term target.

PS - Point me out if I've screwed up my numbers and calculation.

**minimoke** · 21-03-2018, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Fonterra seemed to be down ...quite a lot

Depends which side of the equation "Farmers will welcome a forecast cash payout of $6.80 - $6.90, which would be the third highest in the last decade"

**Nasi Goreng** · 21-03-2018, 09:41 AM

They do say first half will be higher than second half. so I'm guessing $75M for the year.

**JeremyALD** · 21-03-2018, 09:46 AM

Originally Posted by Nasi Goreng

They do say first half will be higher than second half. so I'm guessing $75M for the year.

Yeah I'm picking around 70m NPAT full year. Still I think this deserves a PE of around 30 given its very strong growth.

**sb9** · 21-03-2018, 09:50 AM

Originally Posted by JeremyALD

Yeah I'm picking around 70m NPAT full year. Still I think this deserves a PE of around 30 given its very strong growth.

Ok, I'm picking they would do at least $80mln based on the fact that new Akl plant became operational in Oct last year and would've hit full scale as of now. Hence my assumption that they would do at least same as FH if not more. $80mln NPAT gives us 45c EPS and apply an appropriate PE as it deserves.

**Nasi Goreng** · 21-03-2018, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by sb9

Ok, I'm picking they would do at least $80mln based on the fact that new Akl plant became operational in Oct last year and would've hit full scale as of now. Hence my assumption that they would do at least same as FH if not more. $80mln NPAT gives us 45c EPS and apply an appropriate PE as it deserves.

I'm going to go off what they say SB9 lol