SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[peat]

topped up under $10.
Long term view though.
This is a day when you are glad you are nearly 2/3 cash or cash equiv.

[Beagle]

LOL a busy day at work can actually make you forget and work like a painkiller!

It did, worked as a pretty good painkiller with the bonus I might have covered a quarter of my losses today...who would have thought writing up a lengthy tax opinion report was more fun than watching the market Just "love" working hard and going backwards....

[couta1]

It did, worked as a pretty good painkiller with the bonus I might have covered a quarter of my losses today...who would have thought writing up a lengthy tax opinion report was more fun than watching the market Just "love" working hard and going backwards....

I've hardly done any real work all week unless you call sorting out your wife's car and painting her office filing cabinets work, will be working all weekend attending to residents at a couple of retirement villages.

[Beagle]

So after today's major decline where does the company sit in terms of valuation relative to the market. Lets just put aside my sense that this company is going to grow strongly in the years ahead and look objectively at analyst forecasts. https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLA...61/financials/
EPS forecast for FY19 is 51.5 cps FY20 is 59 cps and FY21 74 cps. Forward PE for FY19 is 19.4 lower than what has been reported to be the market forward PE of around 21 lately and this for a stock with a clearly defined strategy of growth in the years ahead. SML and ATM have a good track record of pacing each other in recent times in terms of their SP. Opportunity knocks ? with the present price difference and fundamental value of SML, you be the judge.

[winner69]

Hey Couts ....can you explain to Beagle that Friday's action re SML share price was just a case of reversion to the mean.

SML share price been about 93% of ATM share price for some time now ...except when ATM was ridiculously priced

[minimoke]

John Penno get his "retirement" sorted. Cashing up a few shares - will be interesting to follow to see what he is putting it into - cant all be a new deck

[winner69]

John Penno get his "retirement" sorted. Cashing up a few shares - will be interesting to follow to see what he is putting it into - cant all be a new deck

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)

[minimoke]

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)

That doesn't make sense. If its not going to be any better than $10.80 in his mind then he would have taken the whole lot and put it into the new investments he is looking at - cos he sure as heck isn't going to be wanting to put his money into money loosing schemes.

So probably needed a bit of spending / investment money and sees value going north of $10.80 which is why he has kept 83% of his holding

[sb9]

Finally a bit of interest: 1m shares crossing at $10.80

From 3/10, this crossing relates to John Penno's disposal as per notice issued today.

He deserves it, well done.

[Beagle]

Got $10.80 ......probably thinks it’s never going to be that again so took $11m off the table

Might regret not selling more when it’s $8.50 (fair value)

Can't let you get away with that. That my friend is disingenuous on both counts. Firstly John Penno has built a lot of wealth in this company over a long period of time and there's a BIG difference between selling about 20% of one's shares when they have left a company and Ms hrdlicka selling all her shares just after joining.
Secondly his stated intention was to pursue the development of early start up companies so one would expect he would want some capital out to facilitate that.
Thirdly, how on earth would you know what he's thinking about the future value ?
And lastly I recently checked market screener and the average analyst figure is $9.38. You've yanked the dog's tail and he's barked, happy now ?